NBA Handicapping -
Back To The Future - Big Al McMordie
(BigAl.com)
There's no doubt what the theme of the
2008 NBA Finals is: Back to the Future!
Celtics/Lakers is going to have producers
combing through archival NBA playoff
footage from the 60s and 80s, with Bill
Russell and Wilt Chamberlain crashing
the boards, and Larry Bird and Magic
Johnson running the break in their short
shorts.
It was
always billed as a clash of cultures,
as well, with East versus West, proper
Boston against hip LA, puritan New England
against Hollywood. While the Lakers were
the first team to extensively use in-game
dancers, the Celtics were the last. They’ve
met ten times in the NBA Finals, the
Celtics winning the first eight, the
Lakers taking the last two. And even
though it’s been 21 years since
they last met, there are some similarities
from the old days. Boston is the physical,
defensive team in the low post, leading
the NBA in defense, while the Lakers
play an uptempo style, fourth in the
NBA in scoring.
But make no mistake: The Lakers can
play great defense. This is a fact often
overlooked with their high scoring attack,
but LA allowed 44.5% shooting by opponents
this season, sixth best in the NBA, just
behind the Spurs. They used that defense
to handcuff the Spurs in five games,
all five going under the total.
In fact, the Lakers are on a 10-4 run
under the total. Their strong defense
shut down run-and-gun Denver in the first
series, a sweep, and held San Antonio
to 85, 71, 91 and 92 in their four wins
in the Western Conference Finals.
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The Celtics have had their A-game defensively
in their playoff wins, though it was
surprisingly absent on the road as they
started 0-6 SU/ATS away from home.
As far
as matchups, the big men might be a
bit of a wash, with Kendrick Perkins
and Kevin Garnett battling Lamar Odom
and Pau Gasol. All offer certain strengths
and weaknesses, but there might not be
a clear edge that stands out. How will
the Lakers deal with young Rajon Rondo?
As soon as the playoffs started, teams
began dropping off the Celtics' 22-year-old
point guard Rondo, daring him to beat
them and jamming up Boston's offense.
He’s been hot and cold, as many
young players would be, and now the stage
is even bigger.
Perhaps
the real story is with Kobe Bryant
and Paul Pierce. Will Pierce guard
Bryant, or will Boston allow the shorter
Ray Allen at the league MVP? It makes
more sense to put the bigger Pierce on
him. Pierce has played sensational defense
this postseason, as well. There’s
also a bit of history that may come into
play with Allen and Bryant.
Four years
ago, after the trade of Shaquille O'Neal,
only one NBA player had the nerve to
publicly rip Bryant for his alleged
role in the Laker “divorce.”
That player
was Ray Allen. Said Allen in 2004: "He's going to be very
selfish. And he feels like he needs to
show the league and the people of this
country that he is better without Shaq." Responded
Bryant: "Don't put me and him in
the same sentence." Countered Allen, "In
about a year or two, he'll be calling
out to Jerry Buss that, 'We need some
help in here' or, 'Trade me.'" That
actually happened one year ago, with
Kobe asking for a trade to the Bulls,
though nothing ever came of it.
You can’t
put too much into their regular season
meetings, with Boston blistering LA
twice, 107-94 and 110-91. Neither team
was at full strength and Gasol had
yet to join the Lakers. None of those
games took place in 2008, either.
What’s more important is what’s
happening now. In the first round, the
Celtics struggled against the younger,
more athletic Hawks, going 7 games. In
the second round, the Cavaliers slowed
the pace and the Celtics' offense all
but disappeared, averaging only 84 points.
They were 0-6 SU/ATS on the road at that
point, before beating the Pistons in
6 games (winning twice in Detroit).
LA is 18-7 against the spread as an
underdog, while Boston is 12-8 ATS as
a dog and 9-5 under the total their last
14 games. Two things to keep an eye on
in Games 1 and 2: tempo and bench use.
LA will probably try and go uptempo,
as they are young and better offensively.
Plus, Celtics Coach Doc Rivers kept his
starters on the floor for 398 of the
480 minutes in Games 5 and 6 against
Detroit. The stars will get all the attention,
but the NBA Finals is when role players
off the bench can surprise with key minutes
and big plays. Celtics/Lakers for the
11th time, bring it on! Good luck, as
always...Al McMordie.
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