NBA Playoff Conference Finals - Jim Feist - Picks Online
We're down to
the Final Four in the NBA Playoffs, and
what an exciting three-year postseason
run it has been. 2006 saw more games
decided by one point in NBA playoff history.
Last postseason we saw the biggest upset
in a 7-game series, as the No. 8 seeded
Warriors shocked the 67-win and No. 1
seeded Mavericks in six games.
This has been a fascinating postseason,
as well, one that probably will be
remembered as, "The Year of Home Court Dominance." The
Pistons come into this round 4-0 SU,
3-1 ATS their last four home games.
Top seeded Boston started 8-0 SU, 5-3
ATS at home, but 0-6 SU/ATS on the
road. The Cavaliers started 4-1 SU/ATS
at home, while the home team won and covered the first 6 games of the Spurs/Hornets
series. In addition, the Celtics are off consectuive 7th games.
We've also seen some "clash of styles," with the run-and-gun Phoenix
Suns battling the defensive-oriented Spurs. Chalk up another victory for defense
over offense, as the Spurs won that series in 5 games. That was old hat for San
Antonio, too. On the way to winning the title last season the Spurs had to face
three uptempo teams in Denver, Phoenix and Utah, going 12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS.
The Lakers/Nuggets series was expected to be uptempo because of the Nuggets breakneck
pace behind Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony. Yet, there was a lot more defense
(by the Lakers) than fans and oddsmakers might have anticipated as the last three
games went under the total. That's nothing new, either. A year ago the Warriors/Mavericks
series was expected to be uptempo under Don Nelson's breakneck style. Yet, four
of the six games went under the total. Game 2 jumped over the total by only one
point, while Games 1, 3, 4 and 6 went under the total by 32, 11, 8 and 12 points.
That's because defense has the edge this time of the season. Remember that defense
is often the common ingredient in all sports when it comes to advancing in the
postseason and winning a championship. The last four years are loaded with examples.
In 2004, the flashy, high profile Lakers opened as a 5-to-1 favorite over the
blue-collar Pistons.
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The early money
came in on LA as the public was enamored
with the flashy team (as usual), and
the Pistons were eventually +700 to win
the title. It was the blue-collar team,
with its unselfish play and slam-dunk
defense, that won the title with ease,
as the Pistons whipped the Lakers in
five games.
Three years ago, the two unselfish, blue-collar teams met for the title as the
Spurs topped the Pistons in seven games. In 2006, Pat Riley's Heat used defense
and Dwyane Wade to come back from 2-0 in the NBA Finals, and last season the
Spurs rode their magnificent defense to another title, their fourth since 1999.
Last season everyone was rooting for the Cinderella Warriors and their exciting,
uptempo style, but Utah used its superior defense and inside play to put an end
to the Warriors' season. This year the Denver Nuggets averaged 110 points per
game during the regular season, then the Lakers held them to an average of 101
in their four-game sweep. Denver had the same problem last season, as the Spurs
turned on their defensive jets and held Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony to
88, 91, 89 and 78 points the last four games, all wins by San Antonio.
Naturally, coaches know the value of defense this time of year and you often
find the better defensive teams advancing and facing each other. When the Pistons
won the title four years ago they were 14-8-1 "under" the total in
the postseason. When the Spurs won the title in 2005, 6 of their first 8 playoff
games sailed under the total. The 2006 champion Miami Heat went 10-2 under the
total their final 12 playoff games and last season the under went 3-1 in the
Spurs/Cavs Finals.
This is not uncommon, either, when two proud defensive teams are trying to flex
their muscles in a showcase of superiority. As we enter the final stretch of
this NBA season, keep in mind that the last five years the "under" is
49-35-1 combined in the Eastern/Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals.
Defense doesn.5?t disappear this time of year, it often gets more intense. You
can be sure the West knows all about this, having won 7 of the last 9 NBA titles.
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