NBA Handicapping -
Big Al McMordie (BigAl.com)
As
we come down the home stretch of the
NBA season, it’s a great time
to utilize a different handicapping angle.
Namely, are teams motivated to finish
strong? Or have they given up? Teams
fighting for playoff berths are the most
obvious at being extra-motivated.
But
other times, even teams with losing
records can be motivated to finish
the season at .500 or with a winning
mark. On the flip side, even good teams
can coast down the stretch if they
have nothing to play for. Some coaches
will rest players knowing they can’t
gain or lose postseason positioning.
Of course, the most obvious go-against
spots are bad teams that have given
up.
The Memphis Grizzlies are a tough team to figure right now. They are
awful, but have been good at covering the last few weeks. They even pulled
a stunning 114-111 win at the Lakers as a +13 dog. However, the very next night
they got beat up by the miserable Clippers.
Memphis
had 17 turnovers punctuated with a
defensive effort that allowed the Clippers
to shoot 53 percent! The Grizzlies
appeared out of sync on both ends of
the court. "They had more energy," Memphis head coach
Marc Iavaroni said. "At the end, they pulled away and some of our guys
looked tired." "We didn't come out like we wanted to play," guard
Mike Conley added. The key question is:
Were they just tired? After all, it was
their third straight game away from home.
Or have the players mentally begun to
pack their bags for summer vacation a
little early?
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Another team to keep an eye on this
week is Portland. Saturday night at the
Rose Garden, the Blazers labored through
one of their poorest finishes and endured
one of their most discouraging losses
of the season, 93-85, to the lowly Charlotte
Bobcats. The poor finish prompted coach
Nate McMillan to lash out at his players
in his postgame news conference, questioning
their heart and motivation with eight
games remaining.
McMillan
labeled it "really bad," and
questioned his team's passion and wondered
for the first time if his players had
prematurely checked out for the season. "The
body language, the passion -- I didn't
see the passion there," McMillan
said. "The season is not over yet
and we are going to play the season out.
It would be a waste of a year if they
approach it that way because they've
had a pretty good year. We have to come
out with a passion to finish this season
out."
The defeat
was especially demoralizing because
it put a significant dent in the Blazers'
goal of finishing with a winning record.
With eight games left, the Blazers
need four victories. "If
anyone has already made plans for the
summer, that's a sellout," McMillan
said. "That's not what we're looking
for here." Sometimes a coach
can only do so much and note that the
Blazers are on a 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS run,
losing twice as chalk.
And what
is going on with the Cavaliers? Are
they a playoff team with nothing to
play for right now? The Cavs are in
the No. 4 slot in the East, sandwiched
between the Wizards and Magic. They’re
probably not going to be caught by Washington
and are too far behind Orlando. Cleveland
is certainly playing like a team just
waiting for the postseason to start,
on an 0-3 SU/ATS run. They were favored
against the Bucks and Hornets, yet lost
both, then had an ugly loss at Detroit,
85-71.
"Detroit came out aggressively
and we were passive," Cleveland
coach Mike Brown said. "We were
nonchalant about it." Sports bettors
should note that it was the Cavs' sixth
straight road loss, going 1-4 ATS their
last 5 away. There are no more excuses
with injuries, as Daniel Gibson and Ben
Wallace are back. "It was a complete
domination," Lebron James said.
Last year’s Eastern Conference
champs don’t look the same.
One bad
team that may offer some value is the
Seattle Sonics. After some record setting
blowout losses where they gave up defensively,
the Sonics have been playing some decent
defense. They have gone 4 straight
games under the total while going 3-0-1
ATS. They had
a frustrating home loss to the Bobcats,
but the consolation for the Sonics was
they continue to play hard, refusing
to join the list of teams conceding the
season in hopes of improved draft lottery
status.
After surrendering
38 points in the first period, the
Sonics handcuffed Charlotte, limiting
the Bobcats to 38 percent shooting
and just 58 points over the final three
quarters. If you can’t bring yourself
to back such a bad team, keep in mind
the Sonics have gone under the total
by 18 and 19 points in two of the last
three games. Late season basketball isn’t
just about playing on playoff-motivated
teams. There are all kinds of team and
handicapping dynamics to focus on. Good
luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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