2007 Record 72 Wins 90 Losses - 5th National League Central
2007
Money ($1,525) Moneyline ~ (944) Runline
~ 88-68 Over/Under
2007 Review
After
years of starting off the season with
solid play, the Reds didn't tease their
fans last year as they started the
year 31-51 which led to the firing
of manager Jerry Narron. The good news
was a finish of 41-39 which could carry
over into this season that shows some
promise. A new manager along with some
strong young talent could turn things
around. The wallets were emptied last
year during the first half but there
was some value had in the second half
when the wins came more often.
2008 Offense
For a team that finished 3rd in baseball in home runs and 8th in slugging percentage,
the Reds should have produced more runs. However, getting on base was an
issue as Cincinnati finished below average in both hitting and on-base percentage.
Ken Griffey hit 30 home runs last season while shifting from center field
to right and played in 144 games, his most since 2000. Adam Dunn has hit
40 or more home runs in four straight seasons but has not hit higher than
.266 in his six full seasons.
A star
in the making is Brandon Philips who
hit 30 home runs and stole 30 bases
to become only the 2nd second baseman
ever to accomplish that. He is under
the magical age of 27 meaning he still
has more potential. The Reds need a
better season from Alex Gonzalez who
was dealing with personal distractions
last year. This could be the last straw
for Edwin Encarnacion who was supposed
to be a superstar but was actually
sent down to the minors last year.
Rookie Jay Bruce is the best hitting
prospect in baseball.
2008
Starting Pitching
The Reds
finished with the worst ERA in the
National League and it was a combination
of both the bullpen and the rotation.
The Reds have a solid one-two punch
of Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo
but it gets very dicey after that.
Harang has won 16 games in each of
the last two seasons and is considered
the ace of the staff which is fitting
with his consistency. Arroyo had a
down season last year after a splendid
2006. The good news is that he had
a 3.55 ERA after the break and hopes
to carry that into 2007.
After
those two, the rest of the rotation
is anyone’s guess. There are
eight pitchers looking to fill the
three spots with Matt Belisle, Homer
Bailey, Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt
being the top four candidates. Bailey
is the young stud but his rookie season
was a disaster. Cincinnati is hoping
the experience pays off this year.
Belisle also had a miserable season
with a 5.32 ERA in 30 starts. The final
two came over from Colorado with Fogg
having a decent year and Affeldt coming
out of the bullpen.
2008
Bullpen
Speaking
of bullpen, Cincinnati had the worst
bullpen ERA in the Majors as well at
5.13. Allowing the opposition to hit
.281 was 2nd worst in the league while
28 blown saves was ahead of only Colorado.
David Weathers was the closer last
season and while he wasn’t the
worst, he definitely was not comfortable.
He moves back to his usual role of
set up man as the Reds signed Francisco
Cordero, who saved 44 games with the
Brewers last season while blowing just
seven.
Mike Stanton
and Bill Bray are the two likely southpaws
coming out of the pen but the real
issues are on the other side. Tom Coffey
was good on the road with a 4.03 ERA
but he had a 7.22 ERA at home. Gary
Majewski was nearly unhittable in Washington
but he has an ERA over 8.00 since coming
to Cincinnati two years ago. The Reds
are hoping for a big turnaround. This
unit needs to get stronger and in a
hurry because the starting pitching
is not good enough to bail the pen
out.
2008
Overall Outlook
The hiring
of Dusty Baker and the increase in
payroll shows that the Reds want to
be a contender now. The problem is
that they do not have enough talent
to challenge the best in the National
League. Playing in the weak National
League Central will help but that can
only go so far. The Reds were a team
that went ‘over’ more often
than not and with the only upgrade
in pitching being the closer, we could
see more high scoring games. The offense
will aid in that as well.
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