The Bullpen - Key to Profits
Baseball
season is just under way and looking
at some basic philosophies is important.
Starting pitching and offense are the
two things that people look at most
when handicapping baseball but there
is one aspect that is considered by some
to be the most important and that is
the bullpen. A shaky bullpen can kill
a quality start and can erase a big lead
given to them by the offense so if the
bullpen falters, starting pitching and
offense doesn’t even matter.
On the
flip side, a good bullpen will do just
the opposite and protect those big
leads and give the starters good support
throughout the season. The middle relief
is where games are won and lost and
a good middle rotation takes pressure
off the closer as well as the starters
since they don’t need to feel they
have to throw a near perfect game in
order to get a win.
Looking
at the 2007 season, the top ten teams
in bullpen ERA were San Diego, Boston,
Toronto, Atlanta, Texas, Cleveland,
Chicago Cubs, Washington, Los Angeles
Dodgers and Colorado. It’s no surprise
that six of those teams were in the top
11 in profits with San Diego falling
in at 12th, the first team to not show
a profit on the season. Those six teams
were a combined +$6,317 in profits. Coincidence?
Not a chance.
Extending out further, the top 10 teams
in bullpen ERA finished a combined +$3,927,
a very solid ending number. Looking at
the bottom six teams in bullpen ERA,
none finished the season with a winning
record while none of those teams finished
in the profits either. The six teams
were 20th or worst on the money list
and they lost a combined -$9,323. That
is a huge amount of losses.
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Going back further there is not much
of a difference. In 2006 the top 10 teams
in bullpen ERA were Minnesota, Oakland,
New York Mets, Detroit, Kansas City,
San Diego, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles
Angels, Florida and Toronto. Six of those
teams finished in the top 10 in baseball
profits with Toronto coming in at 11th.
Those six teams were +$8,946 and four
of the top five in ERA were the top four
in the money list (Minnesota, Oakland,
New York Mets and Detroit).
The bottom five teams in bullpen ERA
were Kansas City, Baltimore, Milwaukee,
Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Only the
Royals showed a profit on the season
while the other four teams showed a combined
deficit of -$5,704. The Kansas City profit
was obviously an aberration and it was
due to enormous line as the royals still
finished with the second worst record
in baseball at 62-100.
In 2005,
the top ten teams in bullpen ERA were
Cleveland, St. Louis, Chicago, Minnesota,
Oakland, San Diego, Los Angeles Angels,
Washington, Seattle and Houston. It’s
no surprise that seven of those teams
were in the top 10 in profits with
Minnesota, San Diego and Seattle being
the only teams not to show a profit.
Those seven teams were a combined +$8,542
in profits.
Those top ten teams in bullpen ERA finished
a combined +$4,725, which is right on
pace with history. Looking at the bottom
five teams in bullpen ERA, only Boston
finished the season with a winning record
and the Red Sox and Devil Rays were the
only of those five teams to finish in
the black on the money line. The combined
losses were -$3,438 so a bad bullpen
leads to some ugly numbers.
Looking at the 2004 season, the top
five teams in bullpen ERA were St. Louis,
Los Angeles, Anaheim, Texas and Atlanta.
Four of those teams were the top four
teams in profits with Anaheim being the
only team not in the top four. Those
four teams were a combined +$7,745 in
profits showing once again that a solid
bullpen leads to the cash.
Overall, the top ten teams in bullpen
ERA finished a combined +$5,305. Looking
at the bottom five teams in bullpen ERA,
only Cincinnati finished the season with
a profitable year as Detroit, Cleveland,
Toronto and Colorado all finished in
the red. The combined losses were -$3,585
which is very close to what the bottom
five finished with in 2005.
Trying
to handicap the bullpens is the toughest
part since the pitchers are coming
in and out, whether it’s
to and from the minors or back and forth
from the starting rotation. Knowing who
is back there is extremely important
and looking at daily transactions is
a must since the bullpen is constantly
turning over for most teams. It’s
an aspect that is overlooked by most
but obviously should not as the analysis
can make or break your season.
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