Big Al McMordie - Baseball's Post-Steroid Era
It’s not your imagination: Nobody
is scoring runs! Home runs are down 20%
from two years ago. It’s tough
to clarify exactly why this is the case,
but one answer might be cool weather.
Historically home run hitters start slow
as April and May have cooler weather,
which helps pitchers. Sluggers don’t
normally get cooking until the hot summer
months.
Still, a more likely culprit would be
steroids, or I should say, lack of steroids.
The 1990s and early 2000s are going to
be remembered in baseball history as
the steroid era. In 1998 Mark McGuire
and Sammy Sosa both topped 60 home runs,
the first time that had ever been done,
then in 2000 Barry Bonds hit a record
73. But things have changed since then,
with major league baseball taking a stance
(finally) and cracking down on testing
and fines to limit steroid use.
The fact is home runs are way down,
and so are runs. Baltimore has little
power since trading away SS Miguel Tejada
and the pitching has improved. Most impressive
has been the Orioles' 6-foot-9 right-hander
Daniel Cabrera, a guy with a great fastball
and his control is so much better in
2008. Throw in a solid changeup and a
two-seamer that is virtually hiding from
bats, and it explains seven straight
quality starts. Against Kansas City he
had 18 ground-ball outs and seven strikeouts
in a complete game. The team is 6-0-1
under the total his last 7 starts. The
Orioles started 25-15 under the total,
including 14-7 under on the road.
The Yankees have the reputation as a
slugging, all-offensive team with weak
pitching. Oddsmakers have been overvaluing
them as far as totals, however, largely
because the offense has disappointed.
New York has been without key sluggers
Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada which
also hurts their power, particularly
against southpaws. The Yankees started
29-12 under the total, including 17-6
under on the road!
The Indians
have been dynamite on the mound, but
disappointing offensively. Reports
are that Cleveland is interested in
making a trade to upgrade its infield,
as Ryan Garko, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny
Peralta and Casey Blake have all struggled.
Blake is a free agent after this season.
However, the pitching staff has led the
charge behind Fausto Carmona, Paul Byrd,
C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee.
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They are tops in the AL in pitching.
Lee has been the most surprising story.
April's American League Pitcher of the
Month, Lee started with a perfect 6-0
record, a beyond belief 0.67 ERA, and
four measly walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings!
Cleveland started 25-15 under the total,
and starts this week on an 18-3-1 run
under the total.
Like
the Indians, Toronto’s pitching
has been strong but the offense disappointing.
Toronto started 28-14 under the total
(18-7 under on the road). One team that
hasn’t surprised in those departments
is Oakland, a team expected to have little
offense but decent pitching. The A’s
started 24-15 under the total, including
13-8 under on the road. Oakland’s
pitching is No. 2 in the AL, right behind
Cleveland. Ace Rich Harden was most impressive
this weekend versus the Braves against
the National League's leading hitter,
Chipper Jones (.423 at game time). Jones
went 0-for-3 off Harden and twice struck
out, once on a changeup and once on a
fastball. It was Jones' first double-K
of the year. Oakland won 5-4 and the
only reason that game went over the total
was that the Braves made it close in
the ninth, scoring three runs off Huston
Street.
hose wacky White Sox are finishing up
a road trip out West, with good pitching
but, like last year, a shaky offense.
Chicago is on a 15-4 run under the total,
and stands 17-8 under the total away
from home.
There
is still some heat on Chicago White
Sox hitting coach Greg Walker. Walker
and others can't help but wonder how
large their Central Division lead would
be if Jim Thome and Paul Konerko, the
No. 3 and 4 hitters, had come out hot
this season. Thome is hitting .203,
Konerko .211. Just a fluke? Or is this
the new post-steroid era? Time will tell,
but the numbers don’t lie: The
unders have thus far dominated the 2008
baseball season.
Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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