Sportsbook.com - MLB:
A baseball bettor's
silent killer
If you
haven’t noticed what’s
going on in baseball this season then
you could be out a lot of cash.
Nobody knows if it will last or if it
will just end up being one of those years,
but road teams are being turned into
road kill to this point.
A look at the results as of May 27th
and you see that road teams winning just
a notch over 43% of the time, a very
low figure.
As of that day, only five teams in the
big leagues had a winning record away
from home. Those teams include the Florida
Marlins, L.A. Angels, Chicago White Sox,
Philadelphia Phillies and the St. Louis
Cardinals.
That’s
it, only a handful of teams have shown
the capacity to win on the road, with
just four others managing a small profit
for bettors. In all, road teams have
lost -80.8 units and if you add up
the all the teams with losing road
marks, they are -116.1 units.
Typically, smart bettors prefer underdogs,
because of the value of the money line,
making actual wins and losses less important.
Long time handicapper Tony Stoffo has
often been published about winning large
sums of money betting
baseball, despite a losing record.
Check
out our all new Baseball Betting Forums
@ CappersPicks.com
Seeing a high percentage of road teams
are underdogs, to date this has been
a costly way to wager on baseball.
Baseball road chase systems have taken
a beating also, as the frequency of road
teams being swept has been inordinately
high. In all, 43 times visitors have
been swept in a series with a minimum
of three games, 23 in the American League
and 20 in the National League.
How important are these number to baseball
bettors?
In the last three seasons, here is the
winning percentage of home teams during
the regular season.
2007 – 54.2
percent
2006 – 54.6 percent
2005 – 53.7 percent
If you extrapolate the current winning
percent of 56.9 against the three-year
average of 54.2 percent, this would be
75 more wins for the home teams over
the course of an 81-game home schedule,
a minimum +75 units of profit, a huge
figure.
What has happened to have road teams
perform so poorly? Major
League baseball has seen an NFL-like
change in the records of teams that made
the playoffs from last season.
The World
Series champion Red Sox, are a downtrodden
11-17, dropping 7.7 units. San Diego
has been dreadful all season, more
so on the road at 8-19, -11.0 units.
Colorado, who’s late season rush
took them to the World Series, 8-17,
-7.7 units on the road. Cleveland stands
at 8-13 and the Cubs at 10-13, have combined
to lose -10.2 units.
In addition, Detroit was supposed to
be strong contender in the American League
and they are 9-16 on the road, while
the New York Mets, who won 47 games in
the traveling grays in 2007, have started
11-16.
This is
followed up with several hard to explain
home/road dichotomies by major league
teams. Boston with their poor road
record, is a baseball best 21-5 at
Fenway Park. Atlanta may be 6-16 on
the road, but is impressive 21-7 at Turner
Field. Last season’s playoff combatants
Arizona and the Cubs are below .500 on
the road, nonetheless, love the home
cookin’ with 19-8 and 20-8 records
in respective home ballparks.
Baltimore is 10-18 on the road, yet
is .500 for the season, thanks to 15-7
mark at home. Even Tampa Bay has joined
in, with incredible 20-8 (+11.5 units)
record at Tropicana Field, including
14-4 versus AL East opponents, leading
to being in first place in their division.
Don’t think for a second oddsmakers
haven’t noticed. Your typical money
line home favorite of the past, fit into
-120 to -125 home favorite spot. With
what has occurred thus far, -130 to -135
is a more fair number, before considering
pitching matchups.
The bottom
line to home teams winning this season
is not unlike what happened to the
New England Patriots in football last
year. If you want to back baseball’s
home teams, you are going to pay the
price. This does add value to playing
road teams, however if the bettor cannot
isolate which road teams will win, a
loss is still a loss.
No question, this bares watching and
following intently for serious baseball
bettors.
How many Sportsbooks
will give you a bonus even when you win your
wager, as that's exactly what we're doing
with this seasons 'Man on Fire' promotion.
If a player on the team you backed catches fire and scores 50 or more points
and your bet covers, we'll award a 50% Bonus
of the amount risked, to a maximum of $500.00.
The bonus applies only to straight bets against the spread. Join Sportsbook.com
Today!
Powered
By: Sportsbook.com
MLB Betting |
Cappers Picks is an online sports service
and handicapping tips website, not affiliated with any Online Scamdicappers. 
