Posted
on 11/03/2007 9:50 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Online Betting Odds - Packers at Chiefs
The Green
Bay Packers travel to the inhospitable
confines of Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday
to take on a Kansas City team that has
won four of their last five games to claim
a share of the AFC West lead. Meanwhile,
Brett Favre’s Monday Night heroics
continued when he stunned the crowd at
Mile High with an 82-yard deep strike to
Greg Jennings on the first play of overtime
to raise Green Bay’s record to 6-1.
If Favre’s magic continues it will
need to happen in one of the only remaining
venues the 17-year quarterback is yet to
post a victory. The Week 9 line has generously
handed the Chiefs with a slim edge (-1)
but the football betting public is seeing
gold and green. We respect the Chiefs hard
earned record, but apart from a win against
a Chargers team having an early season
identity crisis, they have yet to beat
a team with a winning record.
Besides Favre’s heroics, the Packers
running game finally showed some signs
of life against Denver courtesy of Ryan
Grant who tallied 104 yards on 22 carries
for a 4.7 yard- per-carry clip. The second-year
back showed some burst and most importantly
the north-south one-cut mentality that
the Packers’ zone running game requires.
The Chiefs defense ranks 17th against the
run (108.7 per game) and Green Bay will
have to establish Grant to work the play-action
downfield. Donnie Edwards leads the Chiefs
in tackles.
If Favre
gets time to scope downfield there’s little reason to doubt his
abilities to work the perimeters against
veteran corners Ty Law and Patrick Surtain
(they’d be well-served to learn from
Champ Bailey and Dre Bly’s losses).
Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and rookie
James Jones (who leads NFC rookies with
26 receptions for 400 yards) are threats
after the catch and will pose problems
for the Chiefs’ secondary. Chiefs’ defensive
end Jared Allen leads the AFC with eight
sacks (he credits his mullet for the great
start) and will be matched up against veteran
Chad Clifton – he’ll need to
earn his paycheck this week.
The Chiefs
will turn to workhorse Larry Johnson
who seems to have finally turned the
corner after posting back-to-back 100-yard
games. The team will also get a lift from
Priest Holmes’ return to Arrowhead,
suited up for the first time since his
career seemed in peril. The Packers defend
the run well (98.4 yards a game and only
two rushing touchdowns) and linebackers
Nick Barnett, A.J. Hawk and Brady Poppinga
will key on stopping Johnson. Defensive
tackle Ryan Pickett may not play but the
Packers have depth on the defensive front.
Quarterback Damon Huard will look to tight
end Tony Gonzalez who will present match
up problems against linebacker Poppinga
and feisty but undersized safety Atari
Bigby. Veteran corners Charles Woodsen
and Al Harris will get a first hand glimpse
of talented rookie Dwayne Bowe who poses
a deep threat. Last week Aaron Kampman
had three sacks to raise his total to eight
on the season – he will get after
Huard for four quarters.
The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last
6 games as a road underdog and 6-0-1 ATS
in their last 7 road games. They may be
coming off a short week, but the team is
playing with confidence on both sides of
the ball and will come into Arrowhead believing
they can get the job done. This game may
hinge on a couple turnovers and big plays,
but the Packers defense will hold on late
to win a tight game.
NFL BETTING FREE PICK: PACKERS AT +1
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