Posted
on 11/17/2007 8:50 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Bet on Football - Giants at Lions
BetUS NFL betting odds: NY Giants -3,
Total 48.5
NOTABLE STAT: Giants have 32 QB sacks;
Lions have allowed 40 QB sacks
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Detroit
is 5-1 ATS last six as home dog
The Detroit Lions (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS),
unquestionably one of the big surprises
in the NFL this year, will aim for their
seventh win of the season on Sunday when
they take on the New York Giants (6-3 SU,
5-4 ATS) in a game at Ford Field in Detroit
(artificial turf) slated to begin at 1
PM ET. In the BetUS NFL betting odds, the
Giants are listed at -3, with the over/under
posted at 48.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends
as they relate to this matchup:
* NY has won six of its last seven games
SU
* NY has won five of its last seven road
games SU
* NY has played four of its last five
road games UNDER the total
* DET is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five home
games
* DET has covered five of its last six
as a home dog
* DET has played four OVERS in its last
six home games
* NY has won six of the last nine meetings
SU
* Four of the last five meetings have
gone OVER the total
On the surface, this looks like a statistical
mismatch. The Detroit Lions have surrendered
more sacks than anyone else in the NFL
(40), while the Giants have sacked the
QB more than anyone (32). Detroit is 29th
in the league in rushing, generating just
83 yards a game, and had minus-18 last
week against Arizona, which indicates the
Giant pass rush can tee off on Jon Kitna
(68%, 12 TD's, 8 INT's). Only two teams
have given up more passing yards than the
Lions, who yield 69% completions. Back
injuries have bothered top draft choice
Calvin Johnson, who has caught only 21
passes. Detroit has converted only 32%
on third down. We could go on and on.
Certainly you can't have many complaints
with the Giants. Eli Manning (59%, 14 TD's)
spreads the ball around pretty good. Plaxico
Burress has caught eight TD passes, and
Jeremy Shockey had 12 receptions against
Dallas last week. Brandon Jacobs had 95
yards rushing last week and brings balance
to the offense. But there is no doubt that
Detroit is a much different team at home
than it is on the road. The record reflects
that. The Lions have won all four of their
games at Ford Field (3-0-1 ATS), and have
covered five of the last six times they
were a home dog. Kitna hits 68% of his
passes, and while we concede Detroit will
have to get some balance out of sore-footed
Kevin Jones (4.1 ypc) or backup T.J. Duckett,
Kitna can flood the secondary with receivers
(Roy Williams is the leader, with 613 yards)
that will tax New York's secondary, which
gave up four TD passes to Tony Romo last
week.
Detroit takes big risks to attain big
rewards on defense. With 26 sacks and 15
interceptions, the Lions can make the big
play. Kitna gave the ball away four times
in Arizona, with two INT's and two fumbles,
but he is 69% with just one interception
at home. We're not saying the points at
home are an out-and-out gift, but with
a team that has progressed as Detroit has,
and with their penchant for playing well
at home and after disappointing losses,
there is solid evidence to grab the points
with the Lions, the three-point underdog
in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: DETROIT * (Graded on a scale
of 1-4 stars)
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