Posted
on 11/09/2007 1:50 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Two teams
that are in very tough shape get together
on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium
in Charlotte (grass) as the Atlanta Falcons
(2-6 SU, 5-3 ATS) visit the Carolina
Panthers (4-4 SU & ATS) in a game
scheduled for 1 PM ET. In the BetUS NFL
football betting odds, Carolina is listed
at -4.5, with the TOTAL posted at 36.5
points.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Carolina
-4.5, Total 36.5
NOTABLE STAT:
Carolina & Atlanta have
totaled 114 points in their last four games
(projected to 28.5 ppg)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TRENDS: Carolina
has five straight unders, Atlanta four
straight unders.
(For more useful stats and NFL betting
trends, check out our special Matchup Tool)
We will focus on an analysis of the total
for this NFC South encounter.
First, let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED
pro football betting trends concerning
this matchup:
* ATLANTA and CAROLINA have both played
six UNDERS in eight games
* CAROLINA has played five straight games
UNDER the total
* CAROLINA has played 10 UNDERS in their
last 15 home games
* ATLANTA has played four straight games
UNDER the total
* ATLANTA has played 14 of its last 17
games UNDER the total
* Six of the last nine meetings have gone
UNDER the total
* Six of the last seven meetings in Charlotte
have gone UNDER the total
This is not necessarily a strict trend
play. But the Panthers have fallen under
THIS posted total in each of those five
games as well. They have averaged just
12.4 points a game in that period. That
is almost five points a game below their
season average (17.1). Carolina's slide
on the scoreboard has coincided with the
loss of Jake Delhomme, who went down after
the third game. And things look like they
may turn worse on the offensive side. David
Carr (just 4.7 yards an attempt - worst
in NFL) started Sunday's game against Tennessee,
but was knocked out with a concussion in
the second half after throwing 27 passes
for just 107 yards.
Carr's status for this game is uncertain;
he is essentially on big blow from being
knocked out of a game, and because of his
penchant for holding onto the ball too
long, he is highly susceptible to being
sacked. He was dumped seven times against
the Titans. Vinny Testaverde is still nursing
a sore Achilles tendon, and even if he
can go, he's vulnerable. That might leave
Carolina with Matt Moore, an undrafted
rookie out of Oregon State who wouldn't
have even been on the roster had injuries
not hit Delhomme and Brett Basanez. Moore
was 2-for-5 in relief of Carr on Sunday,
and threw an interception.
Carolina has managed only one touchdown
in each of its last two games. Only seven
points have been registered in the last
seven quarters. And the Panthers are notoriously
worse at home than they are on the road
when it comes to scoring points. This season
Carolina has scored just 35 points in three
home games and have tallied just 103 points
in their last eight (12.9 ppg).
Atlanta has averaged just 14.8 ppg over
the period in which they have played four
straight unders. That's relatively consistent
with the Falcons' season average of 14.4
ppg. Joey Harrington has thrown for 266
yards in 43 attempts over the last two
games. he would not be starting if not
for the fact that Byron Leftwich went down
with injury in his first start after being
signed.
These teams rank 26th (Carolina) and 30th
(Atlanta) in scoring, but both rank around
the middle of the league defensively. In
fact, it isn't really defense that has
been the problem for either side, although
sometimes lack of offensive output has
kept the defenses on the field for too
long a time.
In terms
of the statistic we call "Yards
Per Point," these teams are two of
the worst in the NFL. Atlanta has had to
gain 20.5 yards for every point it has
scored, while Carolina's figure is 17.4.
To put it in some perspective, Indianapolis
and San Diego, the two teams playing on
Monday night, have figures of 12.8 and
13.1, respectively.
Fumbling, stumbling and bumbling will
rule on Sunday. Look for the game to go
under the 36.5-point total that is posted
in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
NFL BETTING FREE PICK: JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 36.5 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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