Posted
on 11/09/2007 9:50 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - Bills at Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins (0-8 SU, 2-4-2 ATS)
are still looking for that elusive first
win of the season, and they will make another
attempt at breaking their losing streak
on Sunday (1 PM ET) when they play host
to the Buffalo Bills (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS),
a division rival, at Dolphins Stadium (grass).
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds,
the Bills are listed at -4, with the total
posted at 41 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends
as they relate to this matchup:
* BUFFALO has covered its last five games
* BUFFALO has covered 13 of its last 17
games
* BUFFALO has won five of its last 19 road
games SU
* MIAMI is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 home
games
* BUFFALO has covered the last six meetings
* BUFFALO has won five of the last six
meetings SU
* MIAMI has won nine of the last 13 meetings
at home
* Three of the last four meetings have
gone UNDER the total
* The favorite has covered four of the
last six meetings
The hot topic in Miami these days is when
the Dolphins are going to relent and give
second-round draft choice John Beck a shot
as the starting quarterback. After all,
they seemed to have bypassed Brady Quinn
in the first round of the draft, electing
to take a chance with the former BYU star
instead. But Cam Cameron has established
that for now, incumbent Cleo Lemon (3 TD's,
4 INT's) was going to remain the starter.
The two have a history going back to the
days when Cameron was in San Diego as an
assistant and Lemon was an emergency quarterback.
I think Lemon is going to repay Cameron's
faith with an inspired performance in this
winnable game.
Look, it doesn't take a genius to realize
that these teams appear to be going in
different directions. The Bills have won
three straight games and covered five in
a row, and in their last three contests
have allowed just 287 yards a game. The
running game has stepped up behind Marshawn
Lynch (690 rushing yards), who is looking
very much like an AFC rookie of the year
candidate. Meanwhile, Miami has lost Trent
Green and running back Ronnie Brown and
traded Chris Chambers. Zach Thomas is all
banged up from a car accident, and there
are rumors of massive changes in the off-season.
But if it was simply a matter of betting
the team that was going well against the
team that is going poorly, this would be
an easy business, wouldn't it? Look at
Miami's record - of the eight losses, one
of them was a laydown to Oakland, which
provided revenge for Daunte Culpepper,
and three more were to teams with explosive
offenses in New England, Dallas and Cleveland,
which rank 1-2-4 in the league. Four other
defeats were by a field goal. Assume that
Buffalo is not the kind of offense that
generally runs and hides from the opponent;
indeed, the Bills are 31st in the NFL with
275 yards a game and score 16.2 ppg. This
is the kind of game Miami can keep close,
particularly if veteran Jesse Chatman can
continue to fill ably for the injured Brown
as he has so far (196 yards, 5.4 ypc).
The offensive line has actually been a
bright spot for Miami, and perhaps Lemon
gets some time to throw against a Buffalo
front hat hasn't generated much heat on
the passer (just eight sacks).
Yes, we will grab the points with the
Dolphins, a four-point underdog in the
BetUS NFL football betting odds.
BetUS NFL betting odds: Buffalo -4 (Total
41)
NOTABLE STAT: Miami is allowing 30.5 ppg
- 31st in the NFL
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Buffalo has covered
five straight games
NFL BETTING FREE PICK: JAY'S PLAY: MIAMI **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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