Posted
on 11/03/2007 9:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Betting: Free Picks Week 9
Sunday, November 4th --- Georgia Dome,
Atlanta --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Atlanta -3 (37)
After opening
the season with hope and promise, the
Niners have hit a five game losing streak.
They have looked absolutely horrible
during that stretch. Atlanta has not
looked much better with their own three
game losing skid, but they get the nod
here from the oddsmakers because they’re
the home team.
Alex Smith returned at quarterback for
the Niners last week, but the rust showed
in a bad way. He went 22-for-43 and threw
a pedestrian 190 yards and one score. The
only plus was that Vernon Davis actually
had an impact on the game. The fault goes
straight to the offensive line, which has
not been able to protect Smith, nor open
gaps for Gore to break through.
Atlanta has
been misjudged by the oddsmakers, and
has managed to go 4-3 ATS. But one rule
of the betting season has been to never
bet on Joey Harrington. The erratic passer
will be facing the tandem of Walt Harris
and Nate Clements whoa re shutdown corners
that can take advantage of Harrington’s
bad decisions.
The Niner’s are not a good football
team, but their defense can rattle Harrington,
whose confidence is already completely
blasted. The Niners have a 2-4-1 record
ATS and have been thrown to the wolves
by the oddsmakers, but bet on them on the
road as Frank Gore finds room to run against
an Atlanta defensive line that simply won’t
be physical enough without Grady Jackson
holding down the middle.
NFL Free Pick: San Francisco 21 Atlanta
17
Sunday, November 4th --- Ford Field, Detroit
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Detroit -3.5
(45.5)
The Broncos
were gutted by a patented Brett Favre
bomb in overtime last weekend after Jay
Cutler threw a horrific bounce pass to
Brandon Marshall. They continue to be
the worst team to bet on with a 1-6 ATS
record and have not shown any gusto on
the road. Their twenty-seventh ranked
offense, which manages a mere 17.0 points
per game, will have to contend with a Detroit
home crowd that will rabid for its team’s
5-2 SU start.
Detroit has
yet to lose at home because the dome
allows Jon Kitna to execute the aerial
attack of Mike Martz to perfection. Detroit
is rifling 243.4 yards through the air
per game and the emergence of Kevin Jones
at running back has brought balance to
this offense. Jones was able to tear
the Bears apart for 105 yards. Denver
couldn’t
even stop unknown Ryan Grant of Green Bay
on the ground.
This is not the Lions of yesteryear. The
5-2 start is a bit surprising, but this
offense has a lot going for it. Their betting
faithful should stand strong behind this
solid home team with a small spread that
Denver simply can not hope to match. Despite
the AFC-NFC parity, the Lions will win
this game with ease.
NFL Free Pick: Denver 14 Detroit 27
Sunday, November 4th --- Metrodome, Minneapolis
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: San Diego -7
(41)
The future meets the present when Adrian
Peterson gets to play opposite the reigning
rushing king, LaDanian Tomlinson. Minnesota
is the second-best rushing team with 155.3
yards per game, while possessing a stifling
rush defense that holds opponents to 74.4
yards per game. But San Diego is simply
far too strong for this team.
The Minnesota secondary is atrocious.
It surrenders a league-worst 288.3 passing
yards per game, and Phillip Rivers can
exploit that with Antonio Gates shredding
up the middle and the reborn Chris Chambers
spreading the defense. The Chargers only
pass for 197.1 yards per game, but they
take advantage of their opportunities.
The Chargers
are also no slouch against the run. They
are ranked seventh, holding opponents
to 88.9 yards per game. They will be
able to game-plan around stopping Peterson,
the only viable scoring threat on the
Vikings. The Chargers, who are swelling
with talent and have crushed their last
three opponents with a combined score of
104-27. Don’t bet on Adrian Peterson
being able to take over this game.
NFL Free Pick: San Diego 34 Minnesota
14
Sunday, November 4th --- Giants Stadium,
New York --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Washington -3
(37)
The Kellen Clemens Show premiers this
weekend when the Jets host the Redskins
at home. The Jets have been atrocious this
year, and things are not going to get better
with Laveranues Coles suffering post-concussion
symptoms. Even if he plays, it will not
be at full health and that hurts this anemic
Jets offense.
Washington is a run-first team and averages
105.0 yards on the ground. They have a
very favorable matchup because they will
face a porous Jets defense that has given
up 134.3 rush yards per game. Clemens has
a strong arm, but Washington will simply
be able to control this game all day long
and that will spell disaster for the Jets.
The Redskins will also be out for revenge
after getting demolished by the Patriots
last weekend. The man who spurned The Wrath
of Uncle Bill was Eric Mangini, the Jets
head coach. Gibbs and company will be out
for blood on Sunday.
NFL Free Pick: Washington 21 NYJ 13
Sunday, November 4th --- Superdome, New
Orleans --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New Orleans
-4 (40)
The Saints
are on a roll having won their last three
games in decisive fashion. Reggie Bush
has emerged as the dynamic threat he
was advertised to be, while Drew Brees
has rediscovers his Pro Bowl form. Despite
Jacksonville’s touted defensive reputation,
they give up an enormous amount of yards.
They make up for this by pinning opponents
to 15.7 points per game.
The concern with the Jaguars is their
offense, which has been unbelievably unimpressive
with backup Quinn Gray at the helm. They
beat Tampa Bay last week, but that was
behind a devastating pick-six by Jeff Garcia.
Brees will simply not give the Jacksonville
defense the opportunities to score because
he is a far better quarterback than Garcia.
Jacksonville is simply not a team that
can keep up with a high scoring offense.
Reggie Bush has not been scoring as much
as his fantasy owners would like, but defenses
are keying off of him which is exactly
what the Saints betting investor wants.
That frees of Brees to dismantle the defensive
secondary with his solid stable of receivers.
The Saints are on a roll and the Jaguars
are essentially designed to win tight game.
When the Saints run away with the score
in this one, Jacksonville will get left
in the dust. Quinn Gray simply does not
have the weapons, nor the talent, to keep
up with the Saints at this point.
NFL Free Pick: Jacksonville 17 New Orleans
27
Sunday, November 4th --- LP Field, Nashville
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tennessee -5
(37)
Both teams
are a betting nightmare. The Titans have
only been beating teams by 4.0 points
per game and are 4-3 ATS. Everyone expects
Carolina to be a good team, and they
have the potential. They just haven’t
been living up to it. The key in this matchup
is (obviously) Vince Young who has led
the Titans to a 3-0 ATS in their last three
games.
The Titans run the ball extremely well
because the offensive line is monstrously
strong. Carolina is nineteenth against
the run giving up 113.0 yards on the ground,
and LenDale White is coming of a career
performance against Oakland where he posted
133 rushing yards.
On the flip
side, the Titans are the best team against
the run, holding opponents to 64.3 yards
on the ground. That means David Carr
will have to win this game for Carolina.
Tennessee’s passing defense
is average, but Carr is probably the worst
starting quarterback in the league (Tavaris
Jackson is a close second).
I’m never a fan of saying this,
but Steve Smith is due for a big game.
Carolina is also undefeated on the road
while Tennessee is only 2-1 at home. The
Titans are a strong football team, but
this offense can not run the scoreboard.
Carolina will play it safe and run DeAngelo
and DeSean in to the ground and limit Carr’s
touches, but look for them to get the ball
in to Steve Smith’s hands as much
as possible. While a Panthers victory is
tough to predict, the Titans will let them
hang around in this game to at least cover
the spread.
NFL Free Pick: Carolina 13 Tennessee 17
Sunday, November 4th --- Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa Bay --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tampa Bay -3.5
(36)
Jeff Garcia
made the obvious known against Jacksonville
last week – if he plays
bad, this team can not win. After a heartbreaking
23-24 loss to the Jags last week, the Bucs
return to Raymond James to take on the
Cardinals who are coming off a bye week.
The Bucs have been losing to very good
teams, while the Cards have gone 4-2-1
ATS this season.
You have to give Garcia the benefit of
the doubt and assume that last weekend
was an aberration. Arizona may be ninth
against the pass allowing 195.6 passing
yards per game, but Garcia will be able
to expose a line-backer unit that does
not pick up on coverage assignments very
well. The Bucs throw a conservative 216.8
yards per game, but their rushing attack
gains 106.9 yards per game.
Kurt Warner
should be fully healthy which means trouble
for Tampa because he is an efficient
passer. The Bucs defense has not been
able to create turnovers as much as it
would like to, but it is still the second
best against the pass allowing only 173.1
yards per game. Their porous rush defense
is twenty-second overall, but won’t
give up too much against a Cardinals offense
that ranks nineteenth in the league.
Tampa Bay has had a tough schedule having
faced Indianapolis, Tennessee, their former
defensive line coach at Detroit and Jacksonville.
The drop-off in talent to the AFC West
and the Bucs will take advantage with a
decisive home victory that will restore
the faith betting community has begun to
lose.
NFL Free Pick:
Arizona 17 Tampa Bay 21
Sunday, November 4th --- Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -1
(38.5)
Brett Favre must wear horseshoes under
his jersey. After embarrassing Champ Bailey
and Dre Bly, who are arguably the best
corner back tandem in the NFL, he will
face a much easier test against a KC defense
that gives up 197.1 yards per game. Ryan
Grant, who will start at running-back for
Green Bay, will have trouble finding room
to run against Jared Allen and a KC rush
defense that only gives up 82.1 yards per
game.
But the Packers defense is no pushover.
Their line-backer set of A.J. Hawk and
Nick Barnett steady the coverage of the
run and the pass, meaning that the Chiefs
primary receiver, Tony Gonzalez, will have
trouble finding room to be effective in
this game. The Packers give up 226.6 yards
per game and have two excellent corners.
Damon Huard is efficient, but will have
trouble throwing against the Packers.
That means that this game is squarely
up to Larry Johnson, who is averaging 3.6
yards per carry and is coming off back-to-back
100 yard performances. The Chiefs are beginning
to hit their stride, but the Packers are
undefeated on the road. Brett Favre is
simply not letting this team lose games
and his canon gives the Packers and Mason
Crosby plenty of chances to get on the
scoreboard. The Packers defense will bang
it out with Larry Johnson and keep Brett
Favre in this game long enough to pull
off few more miracles.
NFL Free Pick: Green Bay 20 Kansas City
17
Sunday, November
4th --- Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo ---
1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -3 (43.5)
Do you take
the Bengals, who are winless on the road
this season? Or are your betting dollars
safer in the hands of J.P. Losman? Cincinnati
has the sixth ranked offense in the league
with 25.3 points per game, but the Buffalo’s
defense is greedy and tougher than the
typical fan thinks.
Buffalo plays incredibly smart ball. They
run the ball down your throat in an effort
to control the clock. Losman or not, this
offense knows how to efficiently move the
ball on teams, and no team makes that job
easier than the Cincinnati Bengals defense
which allows a whopping 385.4 yards per
game.
The problem
is that Buffalo’s pass
defense gives up 253.4 yards and Carson
Palmer is still one of the best in the
game despite the team’s woeful 2-5
record. The trends are leaning towards
Buffalo who have a steady 5-2 ATS record
and Cincinnati has not won on the road.
However, Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh
are too good for this secondary and Carson
Palmer will be able to get the ball off
fast despite Buffalo’s fast and agile
defensive line.
Buffalo has
squeaked out wins against teams with
anemic offenses like the Jets and Ravens.
But they can not beat teams with good
offenses because their own offense fails
to score efficiently. And you can not
feel safe with your betting dollars in
Losman’s hands.
NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati 24 Buffalo 17
Sunday, November 4th --- Browns Stadium,
Cleveland --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Cleveland -1
(47)
Seattle leads the AFC West while Cleveland
is pressing hard to challenge the Pittsburgh
Steelers in the AFC North. The Seahawks
are coming off a bye week while Cleveland
rocked St. Louis 27-20 last weekend. The
return of Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett
gives Matt Hasslebeck the versatility he
needs at receiver to take pressure off
of Shaun Alexander, who is averaging a
terribly average 3.4 yards per carry.
Cleveland
will rely on the punch of Braylon Edwards
and Kellen Winslow to set the scoreboard
on fire. Derek Anderson, for all of his
previous short comings is absurdly good
at running the score for the Browns. Seattle’s
passing defense allows 212.7 yards per
game and the secondary is a glaring weakness
that Anderson can expose.
On the flip side, however, the Browns
defense is simply awful. They allow opponents
to steamroll them for 139.4 yards on the
ground while surrendering 270.7 yards per
game. But they have played extremely strong
at home since losing to Pittsburgh 34-7
in the season opener while Charlie Frye
was still at quarterback.
The Seahawks play punchless football,
but are still a good team despite how boring
they are to watch. Cleveland, however,
is simply much better. They showed the
most fight against the Patriots this year
and Anderson is on a roll that can not
be ignored. The Browns betting investors
who were smart enough to get on this bandwagon
early will be rewarded again as they take
Seattle down at home with a tight spread
that favors them slightly.
NFL Free Pick: Seattle 24 Cleveland 31
Sunday, November 4th --- McAfee Coliseum,
Oakland --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Oakland -3 (42)
Forget about
everything I ever said about Houston’s marginal improvements this
season. They still can not protect their
quarterback. Matt Schaub is nursing sore
ribs, a bruised hip and is suffering from
a concussion. Sure, he’s a huge step
up talent wise from David Carr, but nobody
can throw the football when they are picking
turf out of their face mask. Both Oakland
and Houston will be looking to snap three
game losing skids.
Josh McCown
gets the nod at quarterback for Oakland
after Daunte’s uninspiring
performances. But Oakland will have to
lean on the rush to win this game. They
average 138.1 yards per game and Houston
gives up 120.6 rush yards per match. It’s
a very favorable matchup for Oakland.
Houston has gone 0-5 ATS in their last
five games and have simply fallen apart
with injuries to Ahman Green, Andre Johnson
and Matt Schaub. After their bye week next
week, they may be healthy enough to warrant
your betting attention. For now, however,
they will get steamrolled by a strong Oakland
rushing attack and will ask McCown to do
very little.
NFL Free Pick: Houston 10 Oakland 17
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