Posted
on 11/30/2007 5:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - Free Picks Week 15
Sunday, December
16th --- Bank of America, Charlotte ---
1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting
Line: Seattle -7 (37.5)
Seattle needs to
finish the season to get a home game in
the first round. They are simply not as
efficient on the road and play far better
than most teams in the rain. That being
said, their 3-3 SU record on the road should
not make their betting investors shy away
from them against the pathetic Panthers
this weekend.
The Panthers have averaged 14.6 points
over their last five games, which is massively
offset by the 31 points they posted on
the lowly Niners. The defense for Seattle
has allowed 220.8 passing yards and 100.0
rushing yards on average, but Carolina
has been pathetic in both departments.
Their 112.4 rushing yards is inflated due
to the massive and meaningless runs DeAngelo
Williams breaks when the game is well out
of hand in the fourth quarter. Making matters
worse for Vinny and company is that the
pass-rush for Seattle has been superb the
past few weeks. Expect Patrick Kearney
to bust in to the backfield for a few game
changing sacks and forced throws.
Seattle is 5-0 ATS, which is a record
for any team coached by the insufferable
Mike Holmgren. Carolina, meanwhile is 1-6
ATS and SU in their last seven games and
have won only one game at home, which was
against the aforementioned Niners. Bet
on Hasslebeck to continue his tremendous
play as he shreds this listless secondary
to shreds. Seattle is 8-2 against NFC opponents.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Seattle 28 Carolina
13
Sunday, December 16th --- Raymond James
Stadium, Tampa Bay --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tampa Bay -11.5
(39)
Everything
is going south for Atlanta. Bobby Petrino
joins the Nick Saban Coward Coalition
as a college coach who couldn’t
handle the atmosphere of the NFL. Things
do not look good for the Falcons, especially
as they prepare to hit the road as massive
road dogs against Tampa Bay. The Bucs crushed
their divisional foes 31-7 a month ago
in Atlanta.
Not helping
matters for the Falcons is the return
of Jeff Garcia who has steadied the passing
game, and the offense in general, by
steering the Bucs to a 207.6 passing
yards average. Earnest Graham, and remember
he’s a third stringer, is averaging
a dazzling 4.2 yards per carry. It’s
scary to think what this Tampa team would
look like with Cadillac still in the fold.
The Bucs are 5-1 SU at home and are a team
that the savvy betting investor has been
making solid profit off of against the
money line.
The woeful
Falcons have looked modestly much better
with Chris Redman slinging the ball,
but they are still 1-4 ATS in their last
5 games. Their 4-1 ATS record in their
past five road games is easily offset
by the fact that their head coach left
them in the dust like an irresponsible
father who never returned home after going
out, “for a pack of smokes”.
On a final note, it was insanely classless
of the Falcons to sport “free Mike
Vick” shirts after the quarterback
received a two-year jail sentence for felony
charges. Bet on the football guards to
seek revenge for this wrong doing as the
Bucs emphatically lay claim to the NFC
South title was a severely crippling blow
to the chin of the Falcons.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Atlanta 12 Tampa
Bay 24
Sunday, December 16th --- Edward Jones
Dome, St. Louis --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -8.5
(44.5)
I scrambled on the e-mail to switch my
St. Louis upset over Cincinnati to a loss
after learning the last-minute news that
Brock Berlin was starting for the Rams.
Hopefully, you were able to switch your
pick. The former Hurricane gets the start
again, and faces an aggressive Green Bay
front-seven that puts tremendous pressure
on the quarterback. The Green Bay defense
only gives up 217.3 passing yards, while
their rushing defense holds opponents to
99.3 rushing yards.
To prove
how bad Berlin is in the NFL, all you
have to do is ask Isaac Bruce, who still
runs some of the best routes in the NFL.
Bruce was held with zero catches for
one of the few in his celebrated career.
To say that the dynamic duo of Al Harris
and Charles Woodson won’t smother
Bruce and Torry Holt to death is like denying
Britney’s staggering pace of ten
children by the time she reaches 35.
The Green
Bay offense overcame the loss to Dallas
in Week 13 by embarrassing the Oakland
Raiders for 38 points. If you don’t
think that Brett can’t do the same
against a defense that allows 217.6 passing
yards and 24.3 points per game, then you’re
taking a heavy amount of crazy pills. All
of the betting trends should be thrown
out the window, because the recent spread
records between these two are based on
Bulger being in the pocket for St. Louis.
Don’t bet on Berlin ever…and
send some crazy pills my way as a thank
you for this advice.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Green Bay 31 St.
Louis 17
Sunday, December 16th --- Heinz Field,
Pittsburgh --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Pittsburgh -4
(38)
The Steelers
got pasted and what’s-his-name
can go back to the bench and think about
his loud mouth because Troy Polamalu is
back in the building. The Jaguars are 4-1
SU and 5-0 ATS in their past five games,
and face a Steelers team that desperately
needs to get back on track. The Jags have
also won the past two meetings between
these two teams.
David Garrard’s return couldn’t
have come at a better time for the Jaguars,
who are riding his steady play all the
way to the playoffs. The Jaguars average
200.8 passing yards and the receiver set
- namely Reggie Williams - is coming alive
with the steady production of Garrard.
Also helping is the ageless Fred Taylor,
who has three 100+ rushing games in the
past three weeks.
The problem will be the Steelers, who
remain are perfect at home. They are 7-0
SU and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 road games.
Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Santonio
Holmes have the chance to burn a secondary
that tries to make too many big plays and
gives up 237.6 passing yards. The loss
of Marcus Stroud on the defensive line
for Jacksonville will help Willie Parker
break off some consistent runs in large
chunks against the Jags.
Pittsburgh’s
betting bandwagon is getting slightly
lighter in the past weeks as the Steelers
have fallen to 7-6 ATS. However, with
a tight spread against the 9-4 ATS Jags,
you can bet that Big Ben, Polamalu and
company can get this ship righted with
a win over the Jaguars. There is no way
they are going to let the loss to the
Patriots derail their season.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Jacksonville 23
Pittsburgh 28
Sunday, December 16th --- Superdome, New
Orleans --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New Orleans
-3.5 (46)
In another game that has massive playoff
implications for each team, the Cardinals
hit the road as dogs in New Orleans. Arizona
could see the return of Anquan Boldin (toe),
but both he and Larry Fitzgerald are playing
well under one-hundred percent. Watching
Fitz run patterns with a stiff groin was
tough to watch, but mostly because of those
atrocious red pants the Cardinals have.
Simply brutal.
Also brutal
is the Cardinals’ road
record. They are 4-13 SU in their past
17 road contests and have gone 3-6 ATS
in their last 9 games when playing New
Orleans. The Saints looked like they were
getting things back on track against Atlanta,
but they are an iffy team, and it’s
hard to get behind them when Aaron Stecker
is their starting tailback.
But the Saints
betting faithful can rest assured in
Drew Brees. The Saints still post 23.1
points per game, and Brees has thrown
for a team average of 263.3 yards and
Marques Colston is doing exactly what
he did last year - post huge numbers in
the second half. The Saints are surging
towards the playoffs, although they are
hardly a team anyone is scared of. The
losses to the Bucs essentially put the
NFC South title out of reach, but they
can salvage a potential wildcard spot with
a win over Arizona. The Saints are a strong
second-half team, much like last season,
and the Cardinals are a horrific road team.
Writing’s on the wall, my betting
investors.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Arizona 14 New
Orleans 24
Sunday, December 16th --- Gillette Stadium,
Foxboro --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New England
-25.5 (50.5)
What do you
want me to write? Kellen Clemens has
been awful. Jericho Cotchery and Laveranues
Coles have disappeared, and Thomas Jones
is non-existent. And even in press conferences
and interviews, the Jets look like this
game is going to be a joke. The sad thin
is that they’re right. No matter
what you may believe, the Patriots are
going to absolutely destroy the Jets.
The Patriots
average 38.7 points per game, while the
Jets have given up an average of 24.2
points to lesser teams. The Patriots
are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against
the Jets, so the victory isn’t the
question. Their 3-8 ATS record against
the Jets in their past eleven games might
make you squirm, but worry not. Revenge
has a funny way of revving up the old scoring
engine. Brady would love nothing more than
to break the touchdown record against the
pathetic Jets. What I’m more interested
in is how Belichik and Mangini handle the
post-game handshake.
I have to be realistic to my scoring system,
but I would not be surprised if the Patriots
try to score 100 points on the Jets this
weekend. This is a season for records,
right? And who better then to do it on
than the idiot who ratted you out in the
first place.
NFL Betting Free Pick: NYJ 6 New England
47
Sunday, December 16th --- Dolphins Stadium,
Miami --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Baltimore -3
(37.5)
Oh good lord. Who is going to watch this
game? Seriously? The Ravens are 4-9 SU
and 2-11 ATS, while the Dolphins remain
winless with a terrible 3-8-2 ATS record.
Baltimore has the edge in virtually every
important statistical category, but are
1-6 ATS against the spread in the last
seven matches. That would be enough to
make any betting investor queasy.
Miami, however
is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and 9-2
ATS in its last eleven when playing the
Ravens. The problem for anyone predicting
the Dolphins to win is that Cleo Lemon
is back in the saddle. He is a horrifically
easy quarterback to predict. Once he
loses sight of his first option (which
is usually the underwhelming Derek Hagan),
Lemon tries to run. Bart Scott and Ray
Lewis will chew this guy up like he’s
dinner.
Indianapolis
was able to decimate the Ravens, who
were without McAllister and Rolle. The
Ravens have given up an average of 219.9
pass yards per game, but Lemon soured
the betting community with his awful
play when he got his first chance. The
Baltimore secondary should be back against
the Dolphins, and if Lemon decides to throw,
there are only two things he’ll get.
An interception and a chorus of boos from
the seven people in the crowd (even Jesse
Chatman’s mother has better things
to do).
NFL Betting Free Pick: Baltimore 23 Miami
9
Sunday, December 16th --- Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tennessee -4
(33.5)
The Chiefs are one of the worst teams
on third down. They rank third-last with
a 32.4 conversion percentage on third down,
and go up against a wildly talented Titans
defense. Granted, this Titans team is impossible
to predict these days, but there is no
way they lose to the Chiefs.
Normally Arrowhead is an impossible place
to play, but these Chiefs are horrendous.
They are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home
games and are 1-5 SU in their last six
home games. Tennessee has gone 3-3 SU on
the road, but against much better opponents
than Kansas City. The Titans have the eleventh
best scoring defense, surrendering only
20.3 points per game. Consider their last-second
meltdown against San Diego an abomination.
There is no way Brodie Croyle or Damon
Huard stand a chance in the pocket against
Vanden Bosch or Albert Haynesworth.
The question
I have for Tennessee is how they expect
to make the playoffs with an erratic
offense. This was supposed to be Vince
Young’s year. While he’s
avoided the brutal Madden Curse, he still
has only seven passing touchdowns against
16 interceptions. KC hardly has the defense
to make even Vince look bad, but the betting
faithful for the Titans should take the
next three games and leave it at that.
This team is not ready for the playoffs.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Tennessee 20 Kansas
City 13
Sunday, December 16th --- McAfee Stadium,
Oakland --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Indianapolis
-10.5 (46)
The Colts
absolutely embarrassed a tattered Baltimore
defense, and Oakland’s
doesn’t pose much of a threat either.
Josh McCown gets the start for the black
and silver, but it almost doesn’t
matter. The Colts defense has been thirsty
for turnovers, and has created a staggering
32 turnovers.
Indianapolis
is 7-2 SU against AFC opponents and Oakland
is only 4-5 SU. The Raiders have been
brutal down the stretch against the spread.
Currently they are 5-13 ATS in their
last 18 games and have gone 4-18 SU in
their last 22 games. They’ve
also lost 2-8 SU in their past 10 games
at home. Brutal. Simply brutal.
Look for
Indianapolis to put the Raiders on their
heels early by throwing against a solid
passing defense that only gives up 192.2
pass yards per game. Manning will use
Dallas Clark mostly, to burn an insufficient
line-backer corps that can get scorched
underneath. The Colts passing defense only
gives up 166.8 yards per game, while their
solid rushing defense only surrenders 107.5
yards. The Raiders score a measly 18.5
points per game, and don’t even have
a puncher’s chance to win this one.
The double-digit spread may seem inviting
for the Raider’s betting faithful,
but don’t be on Kiffen’s corps
to keep this game close against the defensively
sound Tony Dungy.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Indianapolis 31
Oakland 12
Sunday, December 16th --- Texas Stadium,
Dallas --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Dallas -9.5
(49)
The Eagles
are cruising on a three game losing streak
and meet the Cowboys at the worst time.
Terrell Owens loves playing against this
secondary. The league’s
leading receiver had 10 catches for 174
yards and a score in their last contest.
Romo and Owens lead a passing game that
rocks teams for 270.4 passing yards per
game, and both are exhibiting some dangerous
team chemistry.
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five
road games, but are just 2-4 ATS in their
last six games against Dallas. Dallas is
also 5-2 ATS in their past seven games,
but have had a handful of trouble against
the Eagles when the line is in question.
The problem
for Philadelphia is that Romo and the
Boys are peaking right now. They have
too many weapons for even the Eagles
well-coached defense to handle. If they
decide to double Owens, Witten will be
available underneath. If they throw their
man coverage at both Witten and Owens,
that leaves Marion Barber in one-on-one
coverage on the outlets. Despite the Cowboys’ woes
against Philadelphia in the past, take
the Cowboys with the wide margin of points.
The Cowboys
still need to keep winning with the Packers
hot on their heels in the NFC and a solid
win here would send a message loud and
clear to the rest of the league. Donavan
McNabb has shown steady improvement,
but this ferocious front-seven completely
enveloped Baltimore’s
offensive line last week. Philadelphia’s
is much worse.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Philadelphia 20
Dallas 31
Sunday, December 16th --- Qualcomm Stadium,
San Diego --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: San Diego -10.5
(46)
Detroit has successfully shanked their
season. At the end of the day, these are
still the Detroit Lions. San Diego is 5-1
ATS in their last 6 home games, and the
near-loss last week to Tennessee should
be attributed to their inconsistent play
on the road. Still, there is something
amiss about this San Diego offense, and
a double-digit line should rightfully make
the Chargers betting faithful worried.
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
on the road and are 0-5 SU when playing
San Diego. But this secondary has been
able to torture bad quarterbacks, and Rivers
is one of the worst. Antonio Gates is hampered
by a back/hip injury and that will slow
down a Chargers passing game that only
gets 214.1 passing yards per game. Rivers
is marginally better at home, but his play
overall has been shaky, frustrating and
erratic.
Jon Kitna, despite his absurd guarantees,
still spreads the ball nicely and his offensive
line is getting a nice shove off the line
of scrimmage. that has allowed the Detroit
rushing game to move the chains efficiently
in most of the games this season. Kevin
Jones will do well against a line that
will be missing Shawne Merriman and, perhaps,
Jamal Williams. Detroit still guns for
248.6 passing yards and San Diego gives
up 214.1 yards.
The Chargers
are too sketchy on offense to expect
them to cover a double-digit spread.
Detroit is 2-4 SU on the road, but I
expect their secondary to chew apart
Rivers’ poorly timed efforts. LaDanian
is erupting at the right time, and he’ll
be the reason the Chargers win. But don’t
bet on these uninspiring Chargers to cover
a double-digit line.
NFL Betting Free Pick: Detroit 24 San
Diego 28
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