Posted
on 11/30/2007 5:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Bet on NFL - Week 13 Free Picks
San Francisco
got insanely lucky (for once) this season
when they toppled the MIGHTY KURT WARNER
and crushed Arizona’s
bid for the AFC West crown. Now they take
their 4-7-1 ATS record on the road against
Carolina in a game that nobody will watch
except the excited betting investor. Wonderful.
Sunday, December 2nd --- Bank of America
Stadium, Raleigh --- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Carolina -3
(35)
On paper,
the Carolina Panthers are a far superior
team. They have a better offense, a superior
defense and outscore their opponents.
The problem is, the margin of victory in
each category is so small. Carolina averages
15.7 points per game against San Francisco’s
13.6 points per game.
Both teams will be boasting veteran leaders
who have lost arm strong as Vinny Testaverde
battles (and I use that word ever so lightly)
Trent Dilfer for supremacy on the NFL football
field. Frank Gore will find continued success
against a Carolina front-seven that has
played with zero heart, taking pressure
off of Dilfer and Vernon Davis to take
this secondary to task.
At the end
of the day, when both offenses are miserable,
bet on the team with a superior defense.
The numbers for San Francisco don’t pop at you, but Walt Harris
and Nate Clements will shut down the listless
Carolina passing game, that only manages
177.7 yards per carry. Put your betting
dollars in Frank Gore’s hands as
he rumbles down the field while the Niners
defense reaps rewards for the San Francisco
NFL betting faithful (whomever you may
be).
NFL Free Pick: San Francisco 17 Carolina
13
Sunday, December 2nd --- FedEx Field,
Washington --- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Washington -5.5
(37.5)
It is absolutely impossible to gauge who
the Redskins will react to the stunning
and tragic loss of Sean Taylor, the enigmatic
safety that was shot to death in his home.
But the home crowd, and the raw emotion
of the event will be enough to psyche this
team up to immeasurable levels. Taylor
was their leader on defense. He was a hard-hitting
son of a gun that receivers across the
NFL Odds feared. The Redskins defense,
which allows 213.2 yards passing and 97.3
rushing yards, will step up in homage to
their fallen leader.
The offense
for Washington is athletic enough to
beat this fast Buffalo defense. Jason
Campbell can not underestimate the Buffalo
secondary, which is opportunistic despite
the fact they give up 258.7 passing yards
per game. Look for the Redskins to dig
deep in to the trenches of their emotional
distraught as they rally past the Buffalo
Bills in a big win for the departed, Sean
Taylor. We’ll all miss you, Sean.
NFL Free Pick: Buffalo 12 Washington 24
Sunday, December 2nd --- LP Field, Nashville
--- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Tennessee -4
(43)
Tennessee
is unraveling at the seams. Apparently
Albert Haynesworth’s importance
to this team is incalculable. Without him,
the Titans have been getting flattened
for 32.3 points per game. He may return
this week, but that is besides the point.
It will help Tennessee stuff Ron Dayne
and the Texans rushing game, but not their
big play ability, which is the Titans’ foremost
weakness.
Matt Schaub
has averaged 274.5 yards through the
air since him and Andre Johnson returned.
The Titans’ secondary has been getting
blown apart by big passing plays, and that’s
all that Andre Johnson does. Nobody in
the Titans’ secondary comes close
to matching up to the fast, strong and
athletic receiver. The Titans allow 200.5
passing yards.
Something
is terribly wrong with Vince Young. His
passing numbers are way up, but the Titans
keep losing. Granted, their defense has
been getting chewed up like your dog’s favorite toy, but averaging
14.4 points over the last 5 games is inexcusable.
The rushing game has been stymied and Tennessee
has been forced to the air. Young’s
receivers have let him down immensely,
but things won’t get any better against
a good Houston Texans’ defense.
A slew of
betting trends might sway the Texans
betting faithful in favor of the Titans.
They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road
games, while going 0-5 SU in their last
5 games against Tennessee. They’re
also 0-3 SU against their division this
season. Bet against all those trends this
week as Andre Johnson blows up all over
this secondary and forces VY to play catch-up.
That is certainly a game even Invincible
can’t win.
NFL Free Pick: Houston 27 Tennessee 14
Sunday, December 2nd --- Dolphins Stadium,
Miami --- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Miami -1 (38)
You know
you’re a terrible football
team when you are underdogs against the
worst team in the NFL. Ouch. The Jets are
winless on the road, but the Dolphins are
winless overall. This will be a contest
where both Kellen Clemens and John Beck
will get a chance to shine.
However,
Clemens has a clear advantage because
of his strength at receiver. This Jets
offense can’t move the chains
without Laveranues Coles, who will return
to action this week. The pair of Coles
and Cotchery will help Clemens dismantle
a hapless Dolphins secondary that gives
up 176.6 passing yards. And, if Mangini
has any sense, he will let Thomas Jones
run wild on one of the league’s worst
rushing defenses. The Dolphins give up
148.5 rushing yards per game.
With both tailbacks for Miami limping,
John Beck lacking any real weapons, the
betting backers can get behind the Jets
in this one. The Jets are 6-1 SU in their
last seven games when playing Miami. Miami
is 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against
the Jets.
NFL Free Pick: NYJ 17 Miami 14
Sunday, December 2nd --- Metrodome, Minneapolis
--- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Minnesota -3
(45)
Apparently
Kitna hasn’t been saying
his prayers. Things are spiraling downwards
for the Lions in a hurry, while the Vikings
are enjoying a surprising upheaval. With
Adrian Peterson returning to the lineup,
the Vikings ruthless rushing attack returns
to form. They gain a whopping 173.3 yards
on the ground per game. While Detroit has
a solid rushing defense (95.8 yards against),
they won’t be able to handle the
size and strength of the Vikings’ line.
John Kitna
is averaging 251.2 yards through the
air for the Lions, while the Vikings
have the worst secondary in the league.
They surrender 283.1 yards per game. A
lot of that is because they are coached
to look for picks. And when they are in
the zone, they are a blood thirsty pack
of vultures. Last week, they picked Eli
apart for four interceptions and three
touchdowns. They won’t enjoy the
same success this week, but turnovers won’t
be a tall order for these Vikings.
This game will ultimately decide which
team belongs in Wildcard contention. Bet
on Minnesota scoring a defensive touchdown
to rob Detroit of any momentum, while they
had AP and Chester Taylor the rock to control
the clock and keep this Martz offense off
the field. Detroit is 2-3 SU on the road,
while the Vikings are 3-2 SU in the comforts
of the Metrodome. A trend the Minnesota
betting faithful will enjoy is the 0-4-1
ATS record the Lions have against the Vikings
in their past five games.
NFL Free Pick: Detroit 20 Minnesota 27
Sunday, December 2nd --- Edward Jones
Dome, St. Louis --- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Stl / Atl
As long as Marc Bulger can wrestle that
starting job out of the fumbling grip of
Gus Frerotte, the Rams will be ok in this
one. St. Louis averages 200.0 pass yards
per game, but the passing attack is much
crisper and more precise with Bulger at
the helm. The Falcons secondary has been
allowed 202.5 yards per game, while surrendering
22.2 points. Bet on the Rams taking control
of this game through the air, opening up
lanes for the revived Steven Jackson.
Atlanta is 6-5 ATS because they have been
up and down. The Falcons may be 4-1 ATS
in its last 5 games on the road, but they
are vulnerable to teams that pass the ball
effectively. That is the Rams in a nutshell.
The Rams hold the historic edge over the
Falcons by going 7-3 SU against them in
their last 10 meetings. St. Louis is 4-1
SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta.
NFL Free Pick: Atlanta 17 St. Louis 21
Sunday, December 2nd --- Lincoln Financial
Field, Philadelphia --- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Philadelphia
-3 (43)
The Seahawks
(gasp!) are actually winning with steady
and precise football! And it’s
all thanks to Maurice Morris, whose downhill
running style has been remarkably effective
in Mike Holmgrem’s system. The Seahawks
are 2-3 SU on the road, but 6-1 in the
NFC. But Seattle has always been a team
that doesn’t handle the cold well,
and Philadelphia is getting mighty cold
this time of year.
The Eagles
played remarkably well under A.J. Feeley
last week. I can’t believe
I just wrote that sentence. They are an
efficient passing team that averages 237.9
yards through the air by spreading the
ball out. The receiving stable is average
at best, but they will find holes against
a questionable Seahawks secondary.
Seattle will
look to ground and pound in the cold
weather, but Maurice Morris will have
trouble against an arrogant Eagles front-seven
that will blitz in to the backfield often
to shut down MoMo and antagonize Hasslebeck.
The Seahawks give up 16.6 points per
game, which is strong, but the Eagles
are riding a wave of confidence that won’t
be derailed by a team that can’t
hang in the frigid weather of Philly in
December.
NFL Free Pick: Seattle 17 Philadelphia
21
Sunday, December 2nd --- Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City --- 1:00pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: San Diego -4.5
(37.5)
Every time you want to get excited about
the Chargers, they revert back to their
frustrating inept ways. Well no longer.
Chris Chambers has answered the wide-receiver
problem that the Chargers have had. Rivers
has thrown an average of 279.0 yards in
his last two games, totaling four touchdowns.
The Chiefs have a vulnerable secondary
that gives up 202.6 yards.
It will be
hard for Kansas City’s
betting faithful to place any trust in
Brodie Croyle or Kolby Smith. The pair
has managed well in the past two weeks,
but Kolby’s massive output last week
was due to the fact he was placing the
Raiders. San Diego is not much better,
giving up 113.9 yards on the ground, but
they will be better prepared for Smith
and a tattered KC offensive line.
Ultimately the fire power for San Diego
will be too much for the Chiefs. The Chargers
are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while
Kansas City is in a turbulent four game
losing skid right now. Bet on the Chargers
and be happy.
NFL Free Pick: San Diego 24 Kansas City
16
Sunday, December 2nd --- University of
Phoenix Field, Phoenix --- 4:05pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Arizona -2 (52)
While everyone
keeps expecting the bubble to burst for
the Browns, they keep winning games.
Their high-flying due of Kellen Clemens
Jr. and Braylon Edwards continue to make
lives a living hell for secondaries across
the NFL. On top of that, the Browns have
been a betting backer’s best
friend going 9-2 ATS.
The Cardinals
lost a heart breaker last week but can
make a valiant attempt at salvation by
putting a dent in the Browns’ playoffs
hopes. They have the passing attack to
keep up with Cleveland’s ridiculous
ability to run the score. With Boldin and
Fitzgerald, the Cards will be able to decimate
the woeful Browns secondary. Cleveland
gets pasted for 266.5 passing yards per
game.
The difference here will be Jamal Lewis,
who is quietly reviving his career. The
Browns will use him as they have in the
past few weeks to control the clock and
keep the explosive Cardinals offense off
the field. The Browns average 107.8 yards
on the ground, while the Cards give up
101.1 rushing yards against.
Cleveland
isn’t as strong on the
road as they are in the Dog Pound, going
2-3 SU away from home. But the Cardinals
have appeared vulnerable at home, with
a 3-2 SU mark in the University of Phoenix
Stadium. Cleveland has been 5-0 ATS in
their last five games, and that is a betting
trend the intelligent investor will ride
until further notice.
NFL Free Pick: Cleveland 34 Arizona 28
Sunday, December 2nd --- McAfee Stadium,
Oakland --- 4:05pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Denver -3.5
(42)
The Broncos shot themselves in the foot,
while Todd Sauerbrun tried to pull his
out of his mouth. By kicking to Devin Hester,
they managed to lose a game that was firmly
in their control. They can right the ship
against an Raiders team that is coming
off a motivating win against KC.
Oakland is
1-4 SU at home, and have gone 0-5 ATS
in their past five games in McAfee Stadium.
They also do not match up with Denver
very well defensively. They allow 153.6
rushing yards to a team that is notorious
for a solid rushing attack. That will cause
them to bring too many defenders in to
the box and create one-on-one opportunities
for Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler’s
big-play canon.
The Raiders
boast a strong rushing game of their
own, that averages 131.4 yards and is
now firmly centered around Justin Fargas.
The Broncos rush defense isn’t
much better, giving up 146.7 yards on the
ground, but their secondary is still strong.
They will be able to leave Champ Bailey
and Dre Bly on islands against the Raiders’ listless
receivers, making the Raiders one dimensional.
Oakland hasn’t
beaten Denver since 2004, and Denver
has won their last five meeting SU. Expect
that trend to continue as Denver uses
their big-play ability to devastate a
Raider Nation that got its hopes up after
dismantling KC last week
NFL Free Pick: Denver 20 Oakland 13
Sunday, December 2nd --- Soldier Field,
Chicago --- 4:15pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: NYG -2.5 (43.5)
Kick it out
of bounds. Hell, kick it backwards. Just
don’t kick it to Devin Hester!
That’s the only thing that New York
has to do win this game. Rex Grossman has
actually played well in the past two weeks
averaging 229.5 yards through the air and
totaling a single touchdown. But this is
Rex we’re talking about, and the
bubble is about to burst (again).
Eli Manning
was utterly embarrassed by the Vikings
last week, but that won’t
happen again. The Giants are a very strong
road team, having won four of five road
contests this season. They are 6-2 ATS
in their last eight road games. Chicago
has gone 1-5 ATS in their last six home
games.
The Giants
will rely on Brandon Jacobs to beat up
a depleted Bears’ front-seven.
Jacobs is averaging 5.1 yards per carry
and will use his size and speed to wear
down the Bears defensively. This will take
pressure off of Eli, who is coming off
of four straight brutal performances.
The Bears
continue to yo-yo, winning one week and
losing the next. With a win last week,
they will return to their losing ways
as the Giants keep the ball out of Hester’s
hands and force Grossman to the turf
behind the sack-hungry Osi Umenyiora.
Both teams have been awful ATS this season,
but the Giants can cover in this one.
NFL Free Pick: NYG 24 Chicago 17
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