Posted
on 11/03/2007 9:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Betting: Free Picks Week 10
Sunday, November 11th --- Bank of America
Stadium, Charlotte --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Carolina -4.5
(36.5)
With the
news that Vinny Testaverde is playing,
the chances for the Panthers look much
better in this matchup (and no, I can’t believe I just wrote that).
Atlanta is 0-4 SU on the road this season,
while Carolina is 0-3 SU at home. Steve
Smith will be looking to get Carolina’s
offense rolling against DeAngelo Hall,
especially after the two had a massive
altercation in the last meeting.
The fact remains that neither of these
teams have been very good lately. Atlanta
has two wins in their last five games,
beating up on the pathetic 49ers and the
injury-riddled Houston Texans. Likewise,
Carolina has only managed two wins in their
last five games when they beat Arizona
after Kurt Warner went down and New Orleans
when they were in a mysterious funk earlier
this season. Not helping un-blur the betting
line is that these teams are 5-5 SU against
each other in their last 10 games.
Carolina averages 175.9 passing yards
and 122.6 yards on the ground. Atlanta
looks deceptively good after they defeated
the Niners last week, while the Panthers
are rolling with a three game losing streak.
But with Vinny in the backfield, the offense
can enjoy some much steadier production
as the get a much needed win to stay miraculously
alive in the NFC South playoff race.
NFL Free Pick: Atlanta 14 Carolina 21
Sunday, November 11th --- Lambeau Field,
Green Bay --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Green Bay -6.5
(40.5)
Adrian Peterson
bulldozes his way in to legendary Lambeau
Field this weekend as he takes on Brett
Favre and the Packers. Peterson will
face a rush defense that allows 93.8
yards per game, while Brett Favre will
be gun slinging against the second worst
passing defense in the league. Minnesota’s
secondary gives up 275.6 yards per game
and the defense, as a whole, gives up
19.3 points per game.
Green Bay
won the last meeting 23-16 in Week 4,
but that was before Peterson emerged
as the most ridiculous offensive talent
to enter the NFL in a long while. Working
against Peterson is the fact that he still
does not have a quarterback, and the Vikings
are 1-3 SU on the road this year. While
the betting community can argue that Green
Bay’s defense is marginally worse
than San Diego’s, you can counter
that by saying that the entire San Diego
team was simply in awe of what was happening
on that field.
The Packers will be better prepared mentally
if Adrian Peterson blows up on them.
The fact remains that Brett Favre and
the Packers are 6-1-1 ATS this season and
these boys simply have not given the betting
community any reason to roll the dice against
them. This is a pivotal NFC North matchup
for both teams, and expect Green Bay to
continue their three game winning streak
as Favre picks apart this secondary with
his emergent stable of receivers. Green
Bay wields the second best passing game
with 290.1 yards per game and are ninth
in the league with 24.3 points per game.
NFL Free Pick: Minnesota 17 Green Bay
24
Sunday, November 11th --- Arrowhead Stadium,
Kansas City --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: KC -3.5 (37)
Despite the
fact that Denver’s offense
out gains Kansas City by 61.9 total yards
per game, they only score 0.3 more points
per contest than the Chiefs. Denver was
given some good news when Jay Cutler’s
leg seemed to suffer nothing more than
a Charlie horse. But Kansas City will be
getting a huge lift at home when Priest
Holmes is handed the starting job while
Larry Johnson gets some time to heal his
foot.
Denver is
absolutely atrocious against the spread,
going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games.
Some betting investors will shy away
from the Chiefs since Larry Johnson is
injured, but it’s not like he
was getting too much done. Despite the
fact that Priest and rookie Kolby Smith
have received very little action this season,
Denver still has the worst rushing defense
in the league. The battle in the trenches
will be won by KC on both sides of the
ball.
Kansas City has managed a strong amount
of turnovers this season with 17 (10 picks,
7 fumbles). Turnovers continue to haunt
the Broncos. They have given the ball away
18 times this season. Despite the fact
that Cutler is back, he will be playing
scared with Jared Allen pursuing him around
the edges and making that bruised leg of
his even harder to stand on. Bet on Kansas
as the attention Denver gives the returning
Priest frees up Damon Huard to pick on
a still-injured Champ Bailey.
NFL Free Pick: Denver 17 Kansas City 24
Sunday, November 11th --- Superdome, New
Orleans --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New Orleans
-12 (44.5)
The injury woes continue to flood in as
the Rams lost Leonard Little for the season.
That means Drew Brees, who has been on
fire as of late, will have all the time
in the world to shred this secondary to
bits. The Saints have won their last four
games by 14.5 points on average, and are
going up the listless and winless St. Louis
Rams.
Hurting the Rams chances of covering is
that Steven Jackson is not healthy. Even
if he was healthy, he lacks the offensive
line to be truly effective. Marc Bulger
will be throwing the lights out, padding
the 207.3 passing yards the Rams gain per
game, but it remains hard to bet on a team
that is 1-7 ATS.
Expect Drew
Brees and Reggie Bush to continue their
late season dominance as they march right
through the Rams. New Orleans beat a
decent Jacksonville team by 17 points
last weekend at home. They should have
problem with a Rams defense that simply
couldn’t hurt a fly.
NFL Free Pick: St Louis 14 New Orleans
31
Sunday, November 11th --- Dolphins Stadium,
Miami --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Buffalo -3 (41)
Miami has had a week off to figure out
what in blazes has happened to their team.
Cleo Lemon and Jesse Chatman look like
a serviceable replacement for Trent Green
and Ronnie Brown, but this team has yet
to finish with a win. Their once feared
defense ranks and has only caused 8 turnovers.
The Dolphins rank last with -8 turnover
differential.
Miami has the worst defense in the league,
getting torched for 30.5 points per game.
They simply can not stop anyone, which
is good news for J.P. Losman who has the
chance to seize the starting job again
after losing it to Trent Edwards earlier
this week.
The savvy betting investor will know to
shy away from Miami as a potential upset
this week. The Dolphins were outscored
37-6 in two games against Buffalo last
year.
Buffalo has the edge in the head-to-head,
winning 7-3 SU against the Fins. Miami
will put up a strong effort, but slowing
Buffalo down will be a problem. Lee Evans
is finally finding some rhythm with Losman,
and will have a chance to tear this pathetic
secondary to shreds. The betting faithful
for Buffalo have nothing to fear as the
Bills continue their strong roll against
the spread. They are 5-0 ATS in their last
five games.
NFL Free Pick:
Buffalo 20 Miami 13
Sunday, November 11th --- FedEx Field,
Washington --- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Washington -3
(38)
The Eagles got crushed by Dallas last
week in prime time but have managed some
strange wins this season. Meanwhile, the
Redskins barely squeaked out a win against
the Jets. With a victory, the Redskins
can jump in to the playoff foray. The Eagles,
at this point, are simply playing for pride.
The Eagles
have the decisive edge in history, going
7-3 SU against Washington. But the Redskins
owned McNabb on prime time earlier this
year (maybe Donavan simply can’t
play under the lights). Philadelphia still
manages 236.4 rushing yards per game, and
the greedy Redskins secondary remains vulnerable
giving up 215.6 yards per game through
the air.
The Eagles
have gone 3-5 ATS this season, but are
5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
Washington has gone 3-1 SU at home, but
they are both yo-yo teams. Philadelphia
lost its last game, while Washington won
its last game. If that betting trend holds
firm, the betting investor shouldn’t
hesitate to take the Eagles as road dogs
this Sunday.
NFL Free Pick: Philadelphia 24 Washington
21
Sunday, November 11th --- LP Field, Nashville
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Tennessee -4.5
(35)
Jacksonville
is as big of a pretender as there is.
Despite David Garrard’s
supposed return to action this week, the
5-3 ATS Titans are simply too hot to bet
against at this point. They have been winning
football games with Vince Young having
terrible offensive numbers.
Jacksonville’s defense allows 19.4
points per game while giving up a mediocre
331.6 yards per game. Their once feared
rush defense got blown to smithereens by
Chris Brown (of all people). Imagine what’s
going to happen when a red-hot LenDale
White rolls in to town. The Titans average
149.5 yards per game.
Tennessee is also a great team to bet
on at home. They have a rabid crowd that
has helped lift them to a 7-3 ATS record
in their last 10 home games. Tennessee
won as a road dog in opening week, and
will win this weekend as home favorites
much to the satisfaction of their betting
faithful.
NFL Free Pick: Jacksonville 13 Tennessee
21
Sunday, November
11th --- M&T Bank
Stadium, Baltimore --- 4:05pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Baltimore -4.5
(44.5)
Cincinnati
can turn up the volume on offense, while
Baltimore used to crank the screw when
it came to defense. Too bad that neither
team can turn down the “suck”.
Baltimore’s four wins came against
the Jets, 49ers and Rams and they barely
squeaked out a victory against Arizona.
Cincinnati is not a good team by any stretch
of the imagination, but they beat Baltimore
handedly in opening week 27-20.
Hurting Baltimore’s
chances in this game are the fact that
their once feared secondary has been
struck by injuries. Carson
Palmer has never enjoyed success against
Ed Reed or Chris McAlister, but both seem
to be out with injuries. Even if they do
play, it will not be at full strength.
That means bad news with T.J. Houshmandzadeh
and Chad Johnson coming to Baltimore. Johnson
looks like he will play despite a stiff
neck.
The Bengals
may have a terrible and non-existent
rushing game, but the passing game still
manages 264.8 yards per game and is ranked
fifth in the league. Baltimore has been
a betting nightmare going 2-4 ATS in their
last 6 home games. And it’s almost
impossible to bet on a team that can’t
score points. Baltimore is twenty-sixth
in the league with 16.4 points per game.
NFL Free Pick: Cincinnati 24 Baltimore
17
Sunday, November 11th --- University of
Phoenix Stadium, Glendale --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Detroit -1 (45)
The Cardinals
were supposed to take the leap this year,
but the Detroit Lions stole their magic
and are the most surprising playoff contender
this year. Both teams have been solid
against the spread, but Detroit’s 5-2-1 ATS record gets a
slight edge against the Cardinals’ 4-3-1
record.
Led by Jon
Kitna, and supported by the resurgent
Kevin Jones in the backfield, the Lions
have the sixth best offense in the league.
They light up the board for 25.0 points
per game, and last week their defense
showed just how hungry to score (and
win) they are as well. Arizona gives
up 21.8 points per game and is vulnerable
through the air, despite Adrian Wilson.
They simply don’t have the personnel
to cover the four receiver stable of the
Lions.
Arizona may
be 4-2 ATS in their last six games, but
it’s hard to bet on a
team when they can’t run the football
and are having appalling trouble throwing
the ball, especially when they have two
of the best receivers in the game. Detroit
has a 2-2 SU record on the road this season,
but they have been playing inspired ball
this season. Even if a team derails his
team of its current winning streak, it
won’t be the Cardinals.
NFL Free Pick: Detroit 28 Arizona 24
Sunday, November 11th --- McAfee Stadium,
Oakland --- 4:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: Chicago -3 (38)
The Bears are literally clawing for their
playoff lives, while the Oakland Raiders
continue to stink up the league. Josh McCown
stepped in for the uninspiring Daunte Culpepper
last week, and threw three picks against
the Texans. The secondary for Oakland is
deadly, but the real question is whether
they can stop the running game.
The key to beating Oakland is running
the damn ball, and Chicago has two capable
backs. Cedric Benson has been horrible
this season, but Adrian Peterson (not that
one, the other one) is a fantastic downhill
runner. Giving both of these tailbacks
plenty of chances will draw the secondary
closer to the line of scrimmage, giving
Bernard Berrian the room he needs to scorch
the secondary for a few long receptions.
Brian Griese
is not a general, but he has enough in
the tank to beat Oakland, who perpetually
find ways to lose games. Chicago play
decently on the road, going 6-3 ATS in
their last nine road games. Meanwhile,
the Raiders are 1-7 SU in their last
8 home games. Despite Chicago’s
woes this season, the writing is on the
wall for you to bet on Chicago cleanly
and faithfully.
NFL Free Pick: Chicago 21 Oakland 13
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