Posted
on 12/07/2007 10:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Gamble
- Vikings vs. 49ers - Monster Park,
San Francisco, CA
VIKINGS
(6-6) VS. 49ERS (3-9)
Sunday, December 9, 2007 4:05 ET
BetUS NFL football betting odds: MINNESOTA
-10, Total 40
NOTABLE STAT: Minnesota 5.6 yards per
rush; 3.0 yards per rush allowed
The Minnesota Vikings (6-6 SU, 6-4-2 ATS)
suddenly find themselves in the playoff
race, and will look to keep their wild
card hopes very much alive as they visit
Monster Park in San Francisco (grass) to
play the 49ers (3-9 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) in a
game beginning at 4:05 PM EST.
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds,
Minnesota is listed at -10, with the over/under
posted at 40 points.
Here are some NFL betting stats and trends
relative to this matchup:
* MINN has won and covered four of its
last five games
* MINN has played five of its last six
games OVER the total
* MINN is 2-2-2 ATS in its last six road
games
* MINN has won three of its last 11 road
games SU
* MINN averages 177 rushing yards a game
* MINN has played five of its last seven
road games UNDER the total
* SF has covered one of its last seven
games
* SF has won one of its last ten games
SU
* SF is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven home
games
* SF has played four of its last five
home games UNDER the total
* SF has won 10 of the last 14 meetings
SU
* SF is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
at home
* Five of the last six meetings in SF
have gone OVER the total
Adrian Peterson had 116 yards in his return
to the Vikings' lineup. Without him, Minnesota
won a couple of games with Chester Taylor
at the running back spot. It is clear that
Brad Childress' plan of controlling the
line of scrimmage is starting to take hold.
Minnesota is gaining an other-worldly 5.6
yards a carry, while surrendering only
three yards a pop to the opposition.
That plays a role here, because San Francisco,
which gained just 195 yards and committed
six turnovers last week, will not be able
to rely on its bread-and-butter, Frank
Gore (713 yards, 4.2 ypc), who can be shut
down. And Minnesota's pass defense, which
has taken a lot of abuse this season, is
not likely to be exploited too badly by
Trent Dilfer, who tossed four INT's last
week against Carolina.
But Minnesota's running game will wear
down the over-worked Niner defense, which
has spent an average of almost 35 minutes
a game on the field.
The Vikes have won three straight games,
scoring 37 points per contest in that period.
San Francisco, even including its 37 points
against the Cardinals, has scored only
111 points in its last nine (12.3 ppg).
We're not ready to call Tarvaris Jackson
(57%, 5 TD's) a big-league quarterback
yet. But he's improving, and actually a
better alternative than what the Niners
have now, because he can run with the football.
Because the Vikes actually have premier
offensive weaponry and a way to slow down
Gore, and because there is no plausible
reason to back the Niners, we'll make the
small recommendation with Minny, the 10-point
favorite in the BetUS NFL betting odds.
NFL Free Pick: JAY'S
PLAY: MINNESOTA
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