Posted
on 11/22/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Football Wagering Thanksgiving Triple Header
It's Thanksgiving,
and that means Thursday NFL betting action
and turkey. The first course on the menu
is a 12:30pm EST contest between the Detroit
Lions and Green Bay Packers.
The Lions enter this game at 6-4 SU (straight
up) and 5-4-1 ATS (against the spread).
Detroit traditionally gets it handed to
them on turkey day, but this year they
actually have a legitimate shot at a win,
as they're playing much better than year's
past and are in the playoff hunt.
Offensively, Detroit is scoring 23.1 points
per game and racking up 333.5 yards with
a majority coming through the air with
256.6 yards passing off the arm of John
Kitna, who owns the league's eighth-best
quarterback rating of 90.2. On defense,
the Lions are allowing 23.2 points per
game and 353.3 yards.
The Lions are 11-5-1 SU all-time against
Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day, including
a 22-14 victory in 2003. That game was
the only win for Detroit on Thanksgiving
in the last seven years.
Green Bay is off to their best start since
1962 at 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS as the second
most profitable team in the league.
Green Bay's high-powered offense has scored
30 points in each of its last three games.
They are putting up 25.9 (sixth-best in
the league) points per game and racking
up 370.3 yards. Like Detroit, most of the
Packers offense is generated through the
air and Bret Favre, who owns the NFL's
fifth-best quarterback rating of 98.6.
Defensively, the Packers are giving up
just 15.9 (fifth-best in the league) points
per game and 313.8 yards.
The Lions and Packers met twice last year
with Green Bay winning both SU and ATS.
However, the Packers have been money-shredders
in Detroit where they are 2-8 ATS in their
last ten meetings.
NFL odds
list Green Bay the 4-point favorites
with a game total of 47½. The
underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven
meetings. The under is 4-1 in the last
five matchups, but the over is 5-2 in
the last seven games played in Detroit.
Analysis: This game features two potent
offenses that have virtually no ground
game, which will create a pass crazy game
making for a high-scoring affair. Wager
on the over and enjoy the shootout.
NFL Free
Picks: OVER 47½
Thursday's main
course consist of the hosting Dallas Cowboys
and New York Jets kicking off at 4:15pm
EST. Considering the Jets are 2-8 SU and
0-4 on the road, having dropped the cash
in three of the four away from, Dallas
has a very legitimate shot at stuffing
your turkey with cash.
Dallas is 25-14 SU on Thanksgiving. The
Jets are making their first Thanksgiving
appearance since 1985, when they lost at
Detroit.
The Cowboys are 9-1 SU for the first time
since 1983 and they've covered the spread
in eight of the ten with one push. The
division-leading Cowboys are getting it
done with an offense that ranks second
in the league, scoring 32.4 points per
game while racking up 393 yards. The defense
is holding opponents to 21.8 points and
311 yards.
The month of November has been a profitable
period for Dallas and New York. The Cowboys
are 5-1 ATS in the month's last six, owning
the same mark in Week 12. As for New York,
they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
in November and 8-3-1 ATS in their last
twelve contests played in Week 12.
The Jets are scoring just 17.8 (eighth-worst
in the NFL) points per game off 290.9 yards,
meanwhile, the defense is giving up 24.4
points and 368.5 (seven-worst) yards.
A home cooked
Thanksgiving meal may play a role in
this one, as the home team is 15-4-1
ATS in their last 20 meetings. NFL odds
list Dallas the 15-point favorites with
a game total of 47½. The Cowboys
are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as
a favorite.
Analysis: This is a mismatch on paper
and it will show on the field. There's
too much power on the Cowboys team who'll
get the cover win. Take Dallas and stuff
your belly with turkey and cash.
NFL Free Picks: Dallas -15
Thursday's dessert
is a sweet game between the Indianapolis
Colts hosted by the Atlanta Falcons beginning
at 8:15pm EST. The Colts have failed to
cover the number in back-to-back games
and are 6-4 ATS on the year and 8-2 SU.
Indianapolis' offense, that's scoring
a league's fourth-best 27.8 points per
game and collecting 372.4 yards, overshadows
their rock-solid defense.
The Colts haven't given up more than 24
points this year, and are giving up just
15.9 per game. The defense unit is ranked
second in the NFL, allowing 266.3 yards
per game
The Colts are 12-1 SU against Atlanta,
but lost 28-21 in their only visit to the
Georgia Dome in 1998.
The Falcons have cashed in three of its
last four and is 6-4 ATS and 3-7 SU. They
have been money-making road warriors having
covered the spread in four of their five
played away from home.
Offensively, Atlanta is scoring a stagnant
NFL second-worst 14.2 points per game and
putting up 291.3 yards. On defense, they're
allowing 21.3 points and 321.8 yards.
NFL odds list Indianapolis the 14-point
favorites with a game total of 42. The
Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games
as a road favorite and 10-4 ATS in their
last 14 overall. The Falcons are 7-2 ATS
in their last nine games as an underdog
of 10.5 points or greater and 5-2 ATS in
their last seven overall.
Analysis: This is another mismatch, but
the Falcons find a way to earn a payday
when being pegged big dogs. Expect a late
backdoor cover by Atlanta to take the cash
in this one.
NFL Free Picks: Atlanta +14
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