Posted
on 11/16/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football
Betting – Oakland at
Minnesota
Two teams coming off tough losses in which
they generated very little offense hook
up on Sunday at the Metrodome in Minneapolis
(artificial turf) when the Minnesota Vikings
(3-6 SU, 3-4-2 ATS) play host to the Oakland
Raiders (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS). In the BetUS
NFL football betting odds, Minnesota is
a five-point favorite with a posted total
of 35.5 points.
Now that
we know Adrian Peterson, the star rookie
running back for the Vikings is out of
action, what will these two offensively-challenged
ball clubs produce? We take a look at things
from the "total" perspective.
First, let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED
pro football betting trends concerning
this matchup:
* MINNESOTA is played five of its nine
games UNDER the total this season
* MINNESOTA has played OVER the total in
four of its last six games
* MINNESOTA has played OVER the total in
four of its last five home games
* OAKLAND has played UNDER the total in
four of its last five games
* OAKLAND has played eight of its last
10 road games UNDER the total
* MINNESOTA and OAKLAND have combined to
score 36 points per game
Minnesota has scored over 30 points twice
this season, but has tallied 17 or under
in every other game except for the season
opener against Atlanta. The team got bad
news this past Monday when it was revealed
that Peterson would miss this game with
a ligament tear in his knee, although he
will not need surgery. Peterson had gained
1061 to that point and was on his way to
busting the all-time rookie record of 1808
held by Eric Dickerson.
It's not just that the loss of Peterson
makes the Vikings offense less potent.
That goes without saying. It's that when
it comes to the Vikings, we KNOW which
way they're going to play; this is not
the Seattle Seahawks, who lose Shaun Alexander
and decide that their best fortunes lie
in throwing the football on almost every
down. Minnesota can't throw the football
effectively, whether it's Tarvaris Jackson
or Brooks Bollinger in the game. Brad Childress
is not going to change the style of this
football team. They will continue to pound
the ball into the line, with Chester Taylor,
who is not at all incapable. But Minnesota
will most likely become even MORE conservative
here, because in Peterson, they lost what
was in effect their equivalent of a deep
receiving threat. A.P. was able to take
the ball from coast-to-coast almost as
quickly as any long-range pass-catcher
would. That will be missing from this Minnesota
game plan, so they will have to grind things
out and execute on more plays, which creates
more of a chance for them to sputter.
We've been satisfied with the way we've
analyzed Oakland's games from the over/under
standpoint thus far. The passing game for
the Raiders just doesn't work; Josh McCown
was just 14-for-27 for 108 yards against
Chicago, going through a 29-minute period
where he completed just one pass. And even
though Justin Fargas had a relatively decent
game (81 yards on 23 carries), the Raiders
only managed to put six points on the board.
That makes 42 points over the last month
of action, or just 10.5 per game. The storyline
is circulating around the possibility of
either Daunte Culpepper returning to Minnesota
as the Oakland starter, or for JeMarcus
Russell to get his first taste of NFL betting
action. Either way, we can't see a major
improvement in Oakland through the air.
Once again, this is a team that doesn't
execute well enough to really open things
up, and will go with its bread-and-butter
- the running game - even though it means
they will be running into the teeth of
a Minnesota defense that even after surrendering
120 yards to Ryan Grant and the Packers,
is still the second-toughest in the league
to run on (3 ypc allowed). Would a 32-year-old
head coach be tempted by the trap set by
Green Bay, and force the run, even though
it probably won't work all that well for
him? You bet he would.
Although Minnesota should find some running
room against Oakland's weak run defense
(allowing 4.8 ypc), we're going to look
for another drab game from these two, and
we'll move UNDER the 35.5-point total,
as it is posted in the BetUS NFL football
betting odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Minnesota
-5.5, Total: 35.5
NOTABLE STAT: Oakland 10.5 ppg over their
last four
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Oakland
has played eight of its last ten road games
under the total
Free Pick JAY'S PLAY: UNDER
35.5 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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