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Although neither of these two teams has
been eliminated from playoff contention,
it is pretty clear that only the Jags will
be playing in January unless they have
a breakdown of New York Giant-proportions
over the last four games. Carolina, however,
did manage to beat the lowly Niners last
weekend, while the Jaguars lost a close
battle to their division-nemesis, the Indianapolis
Colts. The NFL betting line favors the
Jags by 10.5 points in this home game.
Carolina
Panthers +10.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars –10.5
David Garrard
has made his coach look like a genius
for dropping the over-hyped and underperforming
Byron Leftwich one week before the start
of the season. His one interception this
year so far is about the average Leftwich
would have had per game. He protects
the ball and spreads it around to his
receivers. In fact, the Jags have five
receivers with more than 25 receptions,
with none having more than Dennis Northcutt’s 36. What this
means is that defenders can’t pick
one or even two options to take out of
the game, they must be aware of everyone
on the field. This allows the Jags offense
much more opportunity that they have had
in recent years.
Carolina
will want to put pressure on Garrard,
but recent history would suggest they
will fail. The failure to pressure opposing
quarterbacks has led to poor outings
by the Panthers secondary as well. They
have just 12 interceptions on the year
and will have to avoid the mismatches the
Jags will be seeking for slot receiver
Northcutt, who could have a very good day
if the Panthers opt for a heavy blitz package.
It does not help Carolina’s cause
that they can’t afford to overlook
the Jags great run game, as Fred Taylor
and Maurice Jones-Drew are both averaging
4.7 yards per carry.
The Jags
do a good job of plugging up the middle
when they are on defense, forcing opposing
teams to run laterally, rather than straight
up the middle. It will be a battle from
the get-go, as both teams will want to
establish superiority on the line. The
Panthers want the middle so that they
can work their zone blocking schemes,
which allow their backs to make quick decisions
and hit the holes at full stride. Forcing
them to go outside could result in a tentativeness
that will play right into the hands of
Jacksonville’s very powerful front
seven.
The Jaguars own just about every meaningful
area of the field over the Panthers, who
have been disappointing, to say the least,
to their football betting followers. Going
back twenty games, there is a very strange
pattern to Panthers ball games. They are
9-11 SU and they have covered only the
games they have won. When they are expected
to lose, they do, without fail, and the
other team covers the spread every time.
NFL Free Pick: The
Jags are not going to lose this game, and
the Panthers are not going to cover.
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