Posted
on 11/20/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Green Bay Packers (9-1)
vs. Detroit Lions (6-4)
Thanksgiving
Day Football - November 22, 12:30 PM
| Turf of Ford Field
Opening NFL Betting
Line: Packers by 3 1/2
The Detroit
Lions have hosted a game on Thanksgiving
every year since 1934 and the Green
Bay Packers have been their most frequent
holiday guest. Thursday’s
Turkey Classic marks the 18th time the
teams fight over the wish bone – the
Lions own an 11-5-1 edge in the rivalry
through the years. The Lions playoff hopes
took a severe blow last week after suffering
a disappointing loss to the Giants and
their schedule down the stretch won’t
help. The Packers took care of business,
disposing of the downtrodden Carolina Panthers,
pushing their record to 9-1 for a share
of the NFC odds lead. The Week 12 line
has the visiting Packers favored by (-4)
at Ford Field, but the Lions’ have
a knack for playing the Packers tough on
Turkey Day and their playoff lives depend
on it.
Brett
Favre continued his sensational play last week
against the Panthers going 22-for-30
for 218 yards and three touchdowns (his
2,975 passing yards this season is second
only to Tom Brady). Favre is effectively
spreading the ball around to all his targets – last
week tight end Donald Lee had two touchdowns
grabs and receiver Ruvell Martin is seeing
more action. The Packers offense has developed
a more balanced attack thanks to the solid
running of Ryan Grant who has started the
last three games and is averaging 4.3 yards
a carry. This enables Favre to hit big
plays deep downfield off the play-action
as he has successfully in consecutive weeks.
Green Bay will attack the Lions secondary
with multiple four and five receiver sets
putting even more pressure on a struggling
unit. Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and
rookie James Jones will severely test Detroit
corners Travis Fishers and Fernando Bryant.
The Lions are giving up an average of 256.7
yards per game through the air and will
need to find a way to pressure Favre in
the pocket – Defensive end Dewayne
White has six sacks and Shaun Rogers gets
a big push up the middle.
The Detroit
Lions offense has been one-dimensional
for most of the season and it becomes a
glaring weakness against teams that can
pressure the quarterback like the New York
Giants did last week (Michael Strahan had
three sacks). The Packers can certainly
bring the heat (Aaron Kampman and Kabeer
Gbaja-Biamila have combined for 17 sacks)
while lock-down corners Al Harris and Charles
Woodsen can neutralize top wide receivers
with their physical man-to-man coverage.
To avoid the losing blueprint of last week,
Jon Kitna must avoid forcing the ball into
coverage and any semblance of a running
game would certainly help. After rushing
eight times for minus-18 yards at Arizona,
the Lions rushed 11 times for 25 yards
against the Giants (2.3 yards a carry).
They’ll need to do much better against
a tough Packers run defense if they want
a chance to win this game. The Packers
front four gets penetration and linebackers
Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk have been flying
to the ball. Detroit’s woes start
up front and offensive tackles Jeff Backus
and George Foster will be in tough again
this week.
The Green
Bay Packers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last
8 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last
4 road games versus a team with a winning
home record. Head Coach Mike McCarthy
is an early favorite to win Coach of
the Year honors – he won’t
let his team look ahead to their Week 13
match-up against Dallas before erasing
a tough divisional foe.
NFL BETTING FREE PICK:
PACKERS AT -4
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