Posted
on 11/29/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Betting Free Picks - Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Preview The Duel in Dallas will pit Brett
Favre, the old timer, against Tony Romo,
who is quickly evolving in to the new,
fun-loving playmaker that Favre used to
be. This game will likely decide which
team gets home-field advantage throughout
the playoffs so the stakes have never been
higher in the regular season for either
of these squads. The last time Dallas had
a big game to win at home, they lost to
the New England Patriots. Will the same
befall them on Thursday against powerful
Pack attack?
Green Bay Offense vs. Dallas Defense
The key for Green Bay will be getting
Ryan Grant hot and out of the gates early,
and that may be fairly easy considering
that Brett Favre has been en feugo as of
late. Since their Week 7 bye, Favre has
averaged 328.2 yards through the air in
the past five games, totaling 13 touchdowns
and only two picks in the process.
Dallas’s slow secondary has allowed
217.0 yards per game, ranking them twenty-first
in the league. The difficulty in covering
Green Bay’s receivers, is that Brett
Favre spread the balls out well between
Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Ruvell
Martin so it is difficult to throw double
coverage at any one of the capable, and
reliable, Packer catchers.
Green Bay racks up almost as many yards
as Dallas does offensively. They are third
I the league, averaging 380.4 total yards
of offense per contest, and average 26.9
point per game. Dallas has to contain Ryan
Grant, a third-stringer, and continue the
reputation of their fourth ranked Dallas
rush defense. The problem for Demarcus
Ware and the fierce, Dallas front-seven
will be dropping backers out of the box
to cover the Green Bay receivers. This,
in itself, will open up more room for Grant
who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.
Dallas Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Romo is great,
but Green Bay’s defense
matches up very well against this scorching
hot team. Hurting Dallas is that Terrell
Owens is the only viable receiver. Terry
Glenn and Patrick Crayton remain sidelined
by injury. Dallas has the sixth-best passing
offense, averaging 260.5 pass yards in
Texas Stadium.
However, Romo and his depleted receiver
set will have to contend with both Charles
Woodson and Al Harris in the secondary.
Harris played unbelievably against a similar
player last weekend, shutting down Roy
Williams of Detroit last week. Covering
Jason Witten will be left to either Nick
Barnett or A.J. Hawk, who are both incredibly
good athletes, though not nearly as fast
as Witten. Witten has 59 catches for 750
yards and has been a steady safety valve
for Romo.
The Packers
front-four generates a ton of pressure,
and are athletic enough to overcome the
size of Dallas’s offensive
line. However, Romo is insanely quick and
instinctive and escapes the pass rush extremely
well. He has been sacked 16 times, but
Green Bay has to be careful because flushing
Romo out of the pocket usually puts him
in his elements, since he loves bootlegging
with broken plays and calling it off the
cuff. Green Bay ranks eighteenth in the
league, averaging 215.3 passing yards per
game.
NFL Football Betting Trends
-Green Bay is 9-1-1 ATS this season
-Green Bay is 5-0 ATS on the road this
season
-Dallas is 5-0 ATS at home this season
-Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games
playing Dallas
-Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
when playing Green Bay
-Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home
games against Green Bay
Final Verdict
The Dallas
defense has always been a concern. Despite
having the second most prolific offense
in the league, Dallas still allows an
absurd amount of points on the board.
You can’t win championships with
a defense that lets other teams stay in
the game.
Brett Favre has a never-say-die attitude
that plays until the final whistle. Plus,
the magical season that the Packers are
having hits Dallas at the perfect time.
Favre is too much of a veteran to get rattled
by a big game like this, and has all the
tools to rip this secondary apart. Dallas
lost the last big game at home, and the
smart betting investor will put a stake
in history repeating itself.
Green Bay Packers (10-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys
(10-1)
Thursday, November 28th --- Texas Stadium,
Dallas --- 8:15pm EST
NFL Opening Betting Line: Dallas -6.5
(51.5)
NFL Free Pick: Green Bay 31 Dallas 27
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