Posted
on 12/29/2007 11:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - Jacksonville at Houston
NOTABLE
STAT: Houston averages 26.3 ppg
at home
KEY
NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jacksonville has played
nine straight "overs"
The Jacksonville
Jaguars (11-4 SU & ATS)
have the #5 seed in the AFC playoffs locked
up, as they travel to Reliant Stadium in
Houston (grass) to play the Texans (7-8
SU & ATS), who will be trying to get
to the .500 mark for the first time in
their history.
In the BetUS NFL betting odds, Houston
is listed at -6 with the total posted at
41 points.
First, let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED
pro football stats and betting trends concerning
this matchup:
* JAX has played nine straight games OVER
the total
* JAX has played 11 of its 15 games OVER
the total this season
* JAX has played 15 of its last 20 games
OVER the total
* JAX has played its last five road games
OVER the total
* HOU has played three of its last four
games OVER the total
* HOU is 12-7-1 to the OVER in its last
20 games
* Six of the last eight meetings have
gone UNDER the total
Obviously
the trends point in a certain direction
here. And even though the speculation
is that, since J-Ville has locked up the
#5 playoff spot, David Garrard (64%, 18
TD's, 3 INT's) will play about half this
game before giving way to Quinn Gray (54%,
6 TD's, 5 INT's), the Jaguars' current
streak of nine straight "overs" can
not be attributed solely to Garrard's presence
in the lineup. Jacksonville moves along
because of its second-ranked rushing game,
with Fred Taylor (1202 yards) and Maurice
Jones-Drew (768 yards) doing most of the
lifting. Taylor has one of the top yards-per-carry
averages of any regular back (5.4 ypc).
All of this means the offensive line is
doing a tremendous job.
Jacksonville is not as potent on the defensive
side when they travel. They are allowing
just 14.2 points a game at home, but that
figure is 21.1 ppg on the road. And Houston,
in its second year under head coach Gary
Kubiak, is productive at Reliant Stadium,
scoring 26.3 points a contest. There will
be incentive on the Texans' sideline, too,
because even though they are eliminated
from playoff consideration, this is their
opportunity to get to the .500 mark for
the first time in the franchise's brief
history, which constitutes an important
step. Sage Rosenfels has proven to be a
capable backup for Matt Schaub. Rosenfels
has completed 64% of his passes for 14
touchdowns, and if you recall, led that
furious fourth-quarter rally when the Texans
came back from 25 points down to Tennessee
before losing. Without a dependable running
game, he will be launching a lot of footballs
into the air. And you can bet he'll avail
himself of Andre Johnson, who has 777 yards
and eight receiving TD's in only eight
games.
These teams met in the sixth game of the
season. Jacksonville won 37-17 at home,
in a game where the teams combined to produce
847 yards and 48 first downs.
When analyzing
these "meaningless" games
in the last week of the season, the emphasis
always seems to be on which offensive players
won't be in action and how that's going
to affect the total. But hey - in the last
week of the season teams rest defensive
players too.
At any rate,
we'll go with the trends and call for
the game to go "over" the
41 points as posted in the BetUS NFL betting
odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: HOUSTON
-6, Total: 41
NFL Free Pick:
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 41
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