Posted
on 12/06/2007 1:34:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Wagering - Miami Dolphins (0-12) at Bills (6-6)
The Miami
Dolphins, (SU, 3-6-3 ATS, 1-4-1 O/U)
are an absolute mess right now and one
that won’t be straightened out
until the Dolphins part ways with either
head coach Cam Cameron or general manager
Randy Mueller, who combined before the
start of this season, to effectively trash
any chances the Dolphins had of being competitive
with their inept personnel moves.
The Buffalo Bills, (7-4-1 ATS, 5-7 O/U),
reached the .500 mark last week after beating
the Washington Redskins 17-16 as kicker
Rian Lindell booted a 36-yard field goal
with just four seconds remaining.
The Bills are actually ranked lower than
the Dolphins in overall offense, (29 to
31), but it is the Dolphins that enter
this game coming off their largest defeat
of the season, a 40-13 drubbing by the
nearly equally atrocious New York Jets.
Here is a
look at tonight’s Key
Trends, followed by my NFL Betting Free
Picks:
Key Dolphins Trends
The Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last
eight games following a double-digit loss
at home.
The Dolphins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last
seven games after allowing more than 150
yards rushing in their previous game.
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last
five games in Week 14.
Key Bills Trends
The Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last
five games following a ATS win.
The Bills are 10-2 ATS in their last 12
games on turf.
The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six
home games.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last four
games as an underdog.
The Under is 6-0 in Dolphins last six
games in Week 14.
The Under is 5-1 in Bills last six games
as a favorite.
The Under is 5-1 in Bills last six vs.
a team with a losing record.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last
five meetings in Buffalo.
The Dolphins are 0-6-1 ATS in their last
seven meetings.
Analysis:
While most NFL observers were thinking
the Dolphins’ best, (only?)
chance to pick up a victory this season
would be in last week’s matchup against
the Jets, I have been pointing to this
game for several weeks as the lone game
that the Dolphins would win this season – and
I’m sticking with that prediction.
For better or worse, I’m taking the
Dolphins to win this matchup, (or cover
at the very least). In closing, I must
admit, I am totally sick of hearing Cameron’s ‘everything’s
fine, we just have to stick together’ speech.
NFL Free Picks: Dolphins +7 Points/Over
36.5 Total Points
01:00 PM EST Football Odds
Miami Dolphins +7 EV
Buffalo Bills -7 -120
Over 36½ -110
Under 36½ -110
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