Posted
on 12/04/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
The Dallas Cowboys (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS),
fresh off the home win over Green Bay that
gave them the inside track on home field
advantage in the NFC playoffs, visit the
Motor City on Sunday to face off against
a sliding Detroit Lions team (6-6 SU, 5-6-1
ATS) in a game scheduled for a 1 PM EST
start at Ford Field (artificial turf).
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds,
Dallas is listed as an 11-point favorite,
with the over/under posted at 52 points.
Can these teams combine to put up that
many points? We'll explore that.
First, let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED
pro football stats and betting trends concerning
this matchup:
* DALLAS averages 32.9 ppg (2nd in NFL)
* DALLAS has played four of its last five
games OVER the total
* DALLAS has played 12 of its last 16
games OVER the total
* DALLAS has played its last six road
games OVER the total
* DETROIT has played four of its last
five games OVER the total
* DETROIT has played five of its last
eight home games OVER the total
* Three of the last four meetings have
gone OVER the total
Since they played in a Thursday night
game, Dallas should be well-rested and
ready to go. And that means ready to score
points.
If not for the year Tom Brady's having,
Tony Romo would be a very viable MVP candidate.
Romo has tallied 33 TD passes and averaged
8.8 yards an attempt, which is phenomenal.
and he has done it without the services
of Terry Glenn, who's been out with an
injury. Thankfully for them, Patrick Crayton
has slipped very nicely into that second
WR slot (524 yards, 7 TD's), next to Terrell
Owens, who can be penciled onto the All-Pro
team (1249 yards, 14 TD's). And then there's
Jason Witten, as good a tight end as there
is in the league.
Roy Williams
has been lost to the Lions for the season.
That's a big blow, but Mike Martz, the
architect of this offense, has other
guys who can make plays. And Jon Kitna
is a good "stat" player.
Kitna is not necessarily so much more productive
at home, but he seems to be better protected
(18 sacks, as opposed to 29 on the road)
and he has a 7-5 touchdown-to-interception
ratio at Ford Field. And he will throw
it until his arm falls off. The running
game gets lip service, but not much action
from Martz; the Lions had 23 rushing yards
on Sunday against Minnesota, and over the
past four games that makes for a total
of 164 over the last four games. Kitna,
after Sunday's game against Minnesota,
complained that "We don't have a lot
of people in our boat right now," meaning
they have abandoned ship. Detroit has lost
four in a row, during which time it has
allowed 31.5 ppg.
The Detroit stop unit has been conspicuous
by its absence at Ford Field in particular.
Only two teams in the entire NFL give up
more yardage at home than the Lions do.
And Dallas has scored 34 ppg over its last
six away from home, all of which has been
victories.
These clubs have met six times in the
last five seasons. In that time there have
been three overs and three unders. But
of most import might have been last year's
meeting, when Romo was playing (321 yards,
two TD's) and Mike Martz was on the job
as offensive coordinator for Detroit. That
game, played on New Year's Eve, ended with
Detroit winning 39-31.
Both these
teams have been gravitating toward playing "over" the
total recently, each exceeding the number
in four of their last five games. And
Dallas has played six straight road games
over the total as well. They love to
throw the ball, combining for 519 passing
yards per game. And that means the clock
will stop frequently.
We will go "over" that
total, posted at 52 points in the BetUS
NFL football betting odds.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Dallas
-11, Total 52
NOTABLE STAT: Dallas scores 32.9 ppg -
second in the NFL behind New England
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Dallas
has played six straight road games over
the total
NFL Free Pick:
JAY'S PLAY: OVER 52 ** (Graded on a scale
of 1-4 stars)
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