Posted
on 11/20/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
vs. Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
Thanksgiving
Day Football - November 22, 8:15 PM
| Turf of Georgia Dome
Opening NFL Betting
Line: Colts by 11
The visitors in NBC's Thanksgiving night
matchup, the Indianapolis Colts (8-2 SU,
6-4 ATS), are trying to get out of a mini-slump
on offense, while the home team, the Atlanta
Falcons (3-7 SU, 6-4 ATS), find themselves
trying find some offense - period. The
two meet at 8:15 PM ET on Thursday evening
at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta (artificial
turf). In the BetUS NFL football betting
odds, the Colts are listed at -13.5 with
the over/under posted at 43 points.
First, let's take a look at the TOTALS-RELATED
pro football betting and stats trends concerning
this matchup:
* INDY has played seven UNDERS in ten
games this season
* INDY has played five straight games
UNDER the total
* INDY has played six UNDERS in its last
seven road games
* INDY has averaged 27.8 ppg this season
* INDY has averaged 26.6 ppg on the road
this season
* ATLANTA has played seven UNDERS in ten
games this season
* ATLANTA has played five UNDERS in its
last six games
* ATLANTA has played 18 of its last 26
games UNDER the total
* ATLANTA has averaged 14.2 ppg this season
* ATLANTA has averaged 14.3 ppg at home
this season
The Indianapolis Colts have struggled
putting points on the board the last few
games as injuries have insinuated their
way into the offense. And for an offense
that relies on timing, those absences have
become difficult to deal with. Future Hall
of Famer Marvin Harrison (doubtful for
Thursday) and first-round draft choice
Anthony Gonzalez have each missed time
over the last month, and left tackle Tony
Ugoh was not available for last Sunday's
game against Kansas City. Kicker Adam Vinatieri
has a bad leg, which caused him to miss
four straight make-able field goals until
knocking a couple though against the Chiefs.
Wide receiver Aaron Moorehead, who was
filling in, left the K.C. game with back
spasms, and right tackle Ryan Diem got
knocked out of action with an ankle injury.
Who will play out of that group has not
been determined yet.
Fortunately
for the Indianapolis crew, they possess
a high-caliber defense that goes under-appreciated
by many casual fans. The Colts rank fourth
in the NFL in overall "D," yielding
only 266 yards a game, and have tightened
things up considerably against the run
as compared to last season, surrendering
just 3.9 per rushing attempt by the opposition.
Atlanta has gotten inconsistent quarterback
play at best from Joey Harrington, and
on those days that coach Bobby Petrino
appears to have committed to Byron Leftwich,
who is not a good fit for his offensive
scheme, things have the potential to go
even slower. Leftwich was 15-of-28 for
106 yards and two pickoffs against the
Bucs before he got yanked in favor of Harrington.
Petrino had not decided who would be his
QB as of Monday, and in fact does not seem
to know from moment to moment who will
have the reins. The rushing game could
provide some answers, if it were at all
consistent. But Warrick Dunn and Jerious
Norwood combined for 36 yards on 17 carries
in Sunday's game. The Falcons have had
to gain 20.5 yards per point scored, which
is a terrible figure. if there is a bright
spot, it is defensively, where Atlanta
ranks in the top half of the league at
#16. The stop unit has helped this team
cover six out of ten games on the year.
On the other side, people look at Peyton
Manning and the offensive weapons the Colts
have at their disposal and are under the
impression this is a team that is involved
in a lot of high-scoring games. Well, yes
and no. Indianapolis has in fact played
five straight games under the number, and
part of it, aside from the Colt defense
and less offensive punch because of injuries,
is that Manning, as essentially the coach
on the field, is perfectly content with
engineering drives that chew clock, if
the situation presents itself. And in Joseph
Addai (760 yards, 4.4 ypc), he has a running
back who can help him do that.
We liked
the Atlanta-Tampa Bay game to go under
the total last Sunday, and though it
didn't, it wasn't because the Falcons
didn't do their part. In fact, they do
their part well enough, often enough -
five times in the last six games and 18
of the last 26 – to justify more
faith in them here.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: Indianapolis
-13.5, Total 43
NOTABLE STAT: Atlanta is averaging 20.5
yards per point his season
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Indianapolis
has played five straight under the total
NFL Free Pick: JAY'S
PLAY: UNDER 43 ** (Graded on a scale of
1-4 stars)
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