Posted
on 11/16/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Bet on NFL - San Diego Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego Chargers
(5-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)
Sunday, November
18th --- Jacksonville Municipal, Jacksonville
--- 1:00pm EST
Opening NFL Betting
Line: Jacksonville -3 (40.5)
Preview:
Jacksonville’s rushing
attack was unstoppable against a vaunted
Tennessee run defense last weekend, while
San Diego won in spite of their morbid
offense. Can San Diego take control of
the AFC West, or will Jacksonville continue
to push the Colts for the AFC South title?
San Diego heads to the east coast to take
on Jacksonville in what promises to be
a defensive display.
San Diego Offense vs. Jacksonville Defense
The chargers offense may register 23.6
points per game, but they look bad. This
team runs in the opposite direction of
offensive logic. They need LaDanian Tomlinson
to go off to take pressure off of Philip
Rivers. It should be the other way around,
with Rivers doing what it takes to take
the pressure of LDT. Such is life for the
ass-backwards San Diego Chargers.
Jacksonville play aggressive and relentless
defense, but their passing game gives up
244.3 passing yards per game. For all their
size and height, they lack decisive speed
in the secondary and that could mean trouble
if a linebacker gets caught trying to contain
Antonio Gates. Chris Chambers and Vincent
Jackson are solid weapons, but Rivers lacks
the physical tools to take advantage of
them.
That leaves
LDT trying to take on a physically impressive
Jacksonville front-seven. He can beat
them around the edges, where they lack
speed at defensive-end, but Tomlinson
desperately needs Rivers to be more effective
if he has any hopes of coming close to
last year’s production.
Jacksonville Offense vs. San Diego Defense
Garrard returns to the Jacksonville offense,
and will be a much more reliable passer.
Still, the Jacksonville offense is predicated
on the run. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging
5.3 yards per carry, while Fred Taylor
is averaging 4.2 yards each time he touches
the ball. The problem will be getting off
the line against Luis Castillo, who returns
from injury to bolster this San Diego front-seven.
It is an often overlooked fact that Adrian
Peterson failed to explode for yards against
San Diego until Castillo went down.
Jacksonville averages 181.9 yards through
the air and 142 yards on the ground, making
them a balanced attack. However, their
receivers lack any serious skill to take
out the gritty secondary of the San Diego
secondary. However, the Chargers defense,
despite its massive reputation, has been
shoddy lately. They are giving up a total
of 358.4 yards per game, ranking them 27th
in the league.
The Jacksonville betting faithful can
remain hopeful that Del Rio will refuse
to stop running the ball as Mojo and Taylor
get plenty of cracks at this front-seven
of the Chargers. That should free up enough
space for Garrard to take advantage of
the height mismatch his receivers have
over the corners of San Diego.
NFL Betting Trends
-San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
-San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
on the road
-the total
has gone OVER in 8 of San Diego’s
last 10 games on the road
-Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7
games
Final Verdict
San Diego has been bad on the road this
year, going 1-3 SU and that is a trend
the betting investor has to keep track
off when placing his dollar down. The Jaguars
are in no way a sexy team, but they have
been playing very consistent ball, which
is more than the Chargers can boast about.
San Diego has more
offensive fire power on paper, but if anyone
has actually watched them in the past few
weeks, this team has absolutely no punch.
Rivers is terrible and will be exposed
by a greedy Jacksonville defense while
the Jacksonville defense runs and rolls
right down the field.
NFL Free Pick: San Diego 17 Jacksonville
24
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