Posted
on 12/21/2007 9:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Betting Trends - Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
If this week’s matchup between the
Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals
turns out to be anything close to the teams’ previous
meeting this season in Week 2, a 51-45
win by the Browns, then NFL bettors and
fans will be in for a real treat.
The Browns turned their season around
that week by naming strong-armed Derek
Anderson the starting quarterback after
a Week 1 debacle by former Browns starter
Charlie Frye.
Now standing at 9-5 and tied for the AFC
North division lead with the Pittsburgh
Steelers, the Browns are flying high after
beating the Buffalo Bills 8-0 last week
at home in a swirling snowstorm.
Unfortunately,
the Bengals, who possess one of the league’s best offenses,
can’t say the same. Cincinnati is
a pitiful 5-9 this season after getting
beaten 20-13 last week on the road by the
lowly San Francisco 49ers.
While the
Browns have soared with Anderson making
everyone forget about rookie backup Brady
Quinn, the Bengals have floundered with
a defense that can best be describes
as “invisible.”
Anderson
is fourth in the AFC with 3,384 passing
yards and 26 touchdown passes while Bengals ‘big-name’ quarterback
Carson Palmer Palmer has thrown for 3,700
yards and 22 TDs, but has also thrown 17
interceptions – one short of his
career-high, set as a rookie in 2004.
The Browns, (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS, 9-4-1 O/U)
are ranked 10th in overall offense, averaging
348.8 yards and 26.3 points per game while
the Bengals, (5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS, 6-8 O/U)
are ranked seventh in overall offense,
averaging 350.3 yards and 23.1 points per
game.
The Browns are ranked dead-last in defense,
(32nd) allowing 378.4 yards and 25.4 points
per game. Cincinnati is ranked 28th in
overall defense allowing 347.4 yards and
24.7 points per game.
Here is a
look at tonight’s key
trends followed by my NFL Betting Free
Picks.
Key Browns Trends
The Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last four
vs. AFC North.
The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five
games as a road favorite.
The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five
games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Key Bengals Trends
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last
five games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
The Bengals are 7-15-1 ATS in their last
23 home games.
The Bengals are 4-10-1 ATS vs. a team
with a winning record.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 5-0-1 in Browns last six vs.
AFC North.
The Under is 4-0 in Browns last four games
on grass.
The Under is 4-0 in Bengals last four
home games vs. a team with a winning road
record.
The Under is 5-0 in Bengals last five
games as an underdog.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last
14 meetings.
Analysis:
With a division title on the line, I
certainly like the Browns to win this
game. However, the 3.5-point spread is
a bit worrisome, particularly since the
Bengals can put points on the board if
nothing else. Still, I say the Browns
cover the spread – just barely.
NFL Free Picks: Cleveland
28 Cincinnati 24
01:00 PM EST NFL Odds
Cleveland
Browns -3½ -110
Cincinnati
Bengals +3½ -110
Over 43½ -110
Under 43½ -110
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