Posted
on 12/12/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
Football Betting Action - Denver (- 1.5) vs. Houston (+ 1.5)
This is a battle between two teams that
do much better at home than they do on
the road. Denver will take their 2-4 SU
road record in to Reliant Stadium, where
the Texans are a solid 4-2 SU. The Broncos
are coming off a massive victory over Kansas
City, while Houston man-handled Tampa Bay
with Sage Rosenfels at the helm last weekend.
Denver Offense vs. Houston Defense
The Denver
offense went absolutely ballistic against
Kansas City last weekend. They totaled
453 total yards of offense behind Jay
Cutler’s four passing touchdowns
When Cutler plays at that level, the Broncos
are nearly unstoppable. Problem is, he
never plays like that on the road.
Cutler averages
a 76.7 quarterback rating on the road
and has thrown at least one interception
in games where has made more than 10
attempts (he was knocked out of the game
against Detroit in Week 9 and only completed
3-of-4 passes). Houston’s
secondary only gives up 217.2 yards per
game through the air, and they have 11
interceptions on the year.
Fortunately
for Cutler, the Texans will be without
DeMeco Ryans who has a sore ankle and
will be unable to go in the short week.
It will be up to Mario Williams and the
front four to provide adequate pressure
on Cutler to force him in to making those
crucial mistakes. It will also be up to
the front four to stop a rushing offense
from maintaining their 128.1 rushing yards
per game average. The Texans give up 118.2
yards per game on the ground, and Denver
would be smart to take this game out of
Cutler’s hands considering his road
play this season.
Houston Offense vs. Denver Defense
Say what
you will about career back-up Sage Rosenfels,
but this guy can play. In six games this
season, he has 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
He has scored multiple touchdowns in
two games, including last week’s
upset over the Bucs where he went 27-for-36
for 209 yards and three touchdowns. However,
he will be facing a Denver secondary
that was supposed to be tops in the nation
but currently ranks seventh, giving up
195.9 yards through the skies.
However, Andre Johnson is an unstoppable
force of nature and Rosenfels is smart
enough to realize that the only he performs
well is by force feeding it to Andre. The
Texans average a startling 246.0 passing
yards, and most of that was done without
Johnson in the fold. The Texans will unleash
Sage in the passing game, especially with
significant injuries at the safety position
for Denver.
NFL Betting Trends
-Denver is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games
-Houston is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
at home
-total has
gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s
last 5 games on the road
-Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 5 road
games
Final Verdict
The Broncos
are simply a team you cannot rely on
when they play on the road. Though the
Texans have been plagued by injuries
in the backfield, Darius Walker will
play with a chip on his shoulder after
not being drafted. He is the type of
shifty runner that excels in zone blocking
schemes like the one Houston employs.
At the end of the day, Andre Johnson
will burn this secondary like a bad skin
rash. As much faith as you don’t want to put in to a guy
like Sage Rosenfels, you are far better
off placing your betting dollars in his
hands than in Jay Cutler’s on the
road.
Denver Broncos (6-7) vs. Houston Texans
(6-7)
Thursday, December 13th --- Reliant Stadium,
Houston --- 8:15pm
Opening NFL Betting Line: Houston -1.5
(46)
NFL Betting Free Pick: Denver 17 Houston
21
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