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Preview -
The New England Patriots come roaring
out of a bye week to terrorize the league.
With their eyes squarely focused on decimating
the home stretch, the run begins in Orchard
Park where they will face a feisty Buffalo
team that loves to bust the spread apart.
Can New England stay focused on a riley
Bills team, or will they get consumed by
their pursuit of history and get caught
looking down the road?
New England Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
The New England offense is the best in
the NFL and there is no point going over
small facts here. They rock the league
for 39.4 points per game, while Buffalo
gives up an average of 18.4 points per
game. Buffalo gives up an alarming 359.4
yards per game, but they keep opponents
off the scoreboard.
The defense
in Buffalo is athletic, agile and fast,
and that could pose problems for New
England as Brady might come under fire
more often than not in the backfield.
Buffalo won’t be caught trying to
drop back defenders in to the box. They
will use their speed to gun after Brady’s
head.
But tipping
the scales way in the favor of New England
is their passing game, which leads the
league with 296.3 passing yards. Terrence
McGee has been lighting up top receivers
around the league, but he’s
facing a matchup nightmare with Randy Moss,
who is over half-a-foot taller. Buffalo
lacks the depth at corner to keep up with
New England’s heavily used spread
offense.
Buffalo Offense
vs. New England Defense
J.P. Losman has secured the starting spot,
but it won’t make a difference.
Losman has been erratic and Marshawn
Lynch is obviously not healthy. This
stalwart defense is going to chew up
this Buffalo offense. Knowing that Lee
Evans is their only weapon will make
game planning fairly simple for this
defense.
Marshawn
Lynch is an impossibly strong runner,
but carrying the load against a stacked
New England offense will be next to impossible.
Buffalo’s offense
passes for an abysmal 163.8 yards per game,
and Losman is impossible to gauge. Buffalo
may be 7-2 ATS on the season, but betting
on Losman to cover against the Patriots
is like betting on Britney to win “Parent
of the Year” for 2007.
NFL Betting Trends
-New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9
games
-total has
gone OVER in 4 of New England’s
last 5 games
-New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
playing Buffalo
-Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
Final Verdict
This is an
open-and-shut case for the Sunday Night
Game. The Patriots betting faithful hit
a speed bump against the Colts, but the
Patriots will return to their spread
crushing ways this weekend in prime time.
The odds makers can’t spread the
line farther than a little over two touchdowns
because nobody would take the Bills. The
Pats betting faithful should stay true
to their Superbowl favorite Patriots this
weekend as they obliterate the Bills.
New England Patriots (9-0) vs. Buffalo
Bills (5-4)
Sunday, November 18th --- Ralph Wilson
Stadium, Buffalo --- 8:15pm EST
Opening NFL Betting Line: New England
-14.5 (46.5)
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