Posted
on 12/12/2007 1:55 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Betting Week 15 - Bengals (- 10) vs. 49'ers (+ 10)
The Cincinnati Bengals have only one victory
away from home but they'll have a legitimate
shot at cashing for the NFL betting family
supporting them on Saturday, while claiming
a rare road win against the San Francisco
49ers, who play host having won just one
game played in front of the home folks
this year.
Cincinnati's 1-5 SU (straight up) road
record and San Francisco's 1-5 SU home
mark creates a fascinating matchup. Not
only have the Bengals flopped SU away from
the jungle, they've also bruised bankrolls
with a 2-4 ATS number when competing on
enemy soil. Even worse, the 49ers have
covered the spread in just one home game
going 1-5 ATS.
Cincinnati is 5-8 SU and ATS on the year
mainly due-in-part to a struggling defense
that's recently improved slightly. They
did not allow a touchdown for the second
time in three weeks in a 19-10 win over
St. Louis on Sunday.
Overall, the Bengals are allowing a league's
fifth-worst 25.1 points per game and 348.2
yards. The unit is surrendering 116.5 yards
on the ground and 231.7 through the air.
The Bengals' pass defense has yielded 24
touchdowns through the air to rank third-worst
in the league in that department.
Cincinnati is much better offensively.
They are posting 23.8 (7th-best in the
NFL) points per game and 353.2 yards. Quarterback
Carson Palmer leads an aerial attack that's
collecting 256.1 yards per game. The ground
game has been limited to 97.2 yards because
of injury to running back Rudi Johnson
who's been sidelined much of the season.
It's been a rough 2007 season for Palmer,
who has 21 touchdowns and 17 interceptions,
one pick shy of his career high set as
a rookie three years earlier.
The Bengals have been eliminated from
postseason play for the 16th time in 17
seasons. This is will be their first visit
to San Francisco since 1996, and they have
lost their last four games there since
a 21-3 win in 1974.
- Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last
8 games in Week 15.
- Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5
games in December.
- Bengals are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with
a losing record.
- Bengals are 17-8-1 ATS in their last
26 road games.
- Bengals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7
games overall.
With backup-turned-starter Trent Dilfer
suffering a concussion in Sunday's 27-7
loss to Minnesota, Shaun Hill will make
his first career start Saturday. The 49ers
also signed Heisman Trophy winner Chris
Weinke on Wednesday to serve as Hill's
backup.
Last week, Hill completed 22-of-27 passes
for 181 yards and one touchdown in relief
of Dilfer, but the 49ers failed to overcome
five turnovers in their fifth straight
home loss.
It was also the seventh money-dropping
performance in their last eight games overall.
San Francisco is now 3-10 SU and ATS on
the year.
The 49ers awful campaign has been manufactured
by an offense that's the worst in the NFL,
having posted only 13.2 points per game,
and a defense surrendering 24.0.
- 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
in December.
- 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Saturday
games.
- 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
on grass.
- 49ers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a
losing record.
- 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home
games.
- 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
overall.
NFL odds list Cincinnati the 10-point
favorites with a game total of 43.
- Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6
games as a favorite.
- Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7
games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
- Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5
games as a road favorite.
- 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games
as an underdog.
- 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
- 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
as a home underdog.
Analysis: This game may not be the most
appealing of games this week, but there's
money to be made here, in particularly
for Bengal backers. Cincinnati is a solid
team offensively facing a San Francisco
team that's dismal across the board. The
Bengals' defensive will continue to improve
versus an offense that's the joke of the
NFL. Take Cincinnati in this one and enjoy.
NFL Free Picks: Cincinnati Bengals -10
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