Posted
on 12/05/2007 8:39:45 PM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - Bears vs. Redskins
The Washington Redskins (5-7 SU, 3-7-2
ATS) will be playing with a heavy heart
on Thursday when they host the Chicago
Bears (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS), a team which also
has feint playoff hopes, in a game at FedEx
Field in Maryland (grass) that will start
at 8:15 PM EST and is televised on the
NFL Network. In the BetUS NFL football
betting odds, the Redskins are listed at
-3, with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting stats
and trends relative to this matchup:
* WASH is 1-6-2 ATS in its last nine home
games
* WASH is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight
games overall
* WASH has lost five of its last six games
SU
* WASH has covered four of its last 17
games overall
* WASH has won three of its last nine
home games SU
* WASH has played five of its last seven
games OVER the total
* WASH has played seven of its last 10
home games UNDER the total
* CHI has covered five of its last 18
games
* CHI has won 10 of its last 14 road games
SU
* WASH has covered six of the last eight
meetings
* WASH has won eight of the last ten meetings
SU
* Six of the last nine meetings have gone
UNDER the total
When tragedy strikes a football team,
whether it is a very serious injury, or,
in the case of the Redskins, the death
of one of their players (Sean Taylor),
it is an extremely difficult thing to handicap.
A team could be feeling so depressed that
it does not have its collective mind on
the upcoming performance. Or it can reach
new levels of inspiration, playing for
the memory of the fallen one. That is why
I do not think it is prudent to either
summarily dismiss or jump on the 'Skins
solely on the basis of an emotional state.
Where something like that DOES matter,
however, is if there is a time factor involved.
NFL teams operate according to a routine;
in fact, when you see coaches being interviewed,
the one thing they will emphasize is that
they are creatures of habit and regimen,
particularly during the season. In this
instance, the Sean Taylor tragedy throws
off that schedule, as it concerns a Thursday
game. The funeral for Taylor was held on
Monday in Miami, so the Redskins had to
travel, as a team, and then travel back.
They lost a full day of preparation in
that process, so there is really only one
day to formulate and implement the game
plan. And yes - these are human beings,
so there are some things that are more
important than a football game.
Chicago coach
Lovie Smith came up with the motivational
gimmick than his team was in its own
playoff, because one loss and they'd
be done. But he may have to do a "double-elimination" talk,
because try as they might, the Bears are
not completely out of things. At 5-7, they
are among a group of teams just a game
out of the final playoff spot. And even
though the Bears ran out of gas late in
last week's game against the Giants, it
is clear that they have been playing with
some intensity. Adrian Peterson (no, not
that one - the other one) has presented
the team with more of a receiving outlet
out of the backfield, and Rex Grossman
makes mistakes but appears to be playing
with more confidence since returning to
the lineup. With each passing week, the
staff is trying to come up with different
ways to get the ball in the hands of Devin
Hester. And the defense will be standing
across from a QB (Jason Campbell) who could
very well be working with a limited playbook
this week.
This has been a tough week for Washington.
Their Pro Bowl safety is killed, they endure
a last-second loss to Buffalo, and then
they experience an incredibly emotional
funeral. That is draining - enough for
us to offer a recommendation for the other
side, which is getting points here. Considering
the Redskins' poor home performances, and
their lack of pointspread prowess overall,
on top of an offense that is even more
anemic than the not-Monsters of the Midway,
we'll grab the points with Chicago, the
three-point underdog in the BetUS NFL betting
odds. The BetUS price of +140 on the Bears
to win the game outright might not be a
bad idea either.
BetUS NFL football betting odds: WASHINGTON
-3, Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: Washington offense - 17.2
yards per point
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Washington is 1-6-2
ATS in its last nine home games
NFL Free Pick: JAY'S PLAYS: CHICAGO +3
*** and +140 ** (Graded on a scale of 1-4
stars)
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