Posted
on 11/23/2007 8:39:45 AM
By: CappersPicks.com NFL Football Handicapping
Staff
NFL Football Betting - San Francisco at Arizona
The San Francisco Forty-Niners (2-8 SU,
2-7-1 ATS) simply can't master the concept
of offensive football. And with their head
coach under the gun, they will try to manage
something positive on Sunday at 4:05 PM
ET when they travel to University of Phoenix
Stadium in Glendale, AZ (grass) to take
on the Arizona Cardinals (5-5 SU, 6-3-1
ATS), who come into the day one game off
the pace in the NFC West. In the BetUS
NFL football betting odds, the Cards are
listed at -10.5, with the over/under posted
at 37.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends
as they relate to this matchup:
* SF is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games
* SF is 1-4
SU & ATS in its last five
road games
* ARIZ is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games
* ARIZ has played 12 of its last 16 games
OVER the total
* ARIZ has covered five of its last seven
home games
* ARIZ has played four of its last six
home games OVER the total
* The road team has covered the last five
meetings
* ARIZ is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings
* ARIZ has won four of the last five meetings
SU
* Six of the last eight meetings have
gone OVER the total
The Niners lived up to their name on
Sunday, scoring just nine points against
St. Louis (with 234 yards actually UPPING
their average). That's the same old story
for this team, which can not get out of
its own way on offense. Trent Dilfer gets
another start in place of injured Alex
Smith. But it doesn't matter who starts
at quarterback. There is no mystery here
- the offensive line doesn't do the job,
the wide receivers, with a former college
QB (Arnaz Battle) the leader, pose almost
no threat, and opponents have the freedom
to close in on running back Frank Gore
(3.9 ypc). With just 60 points scored over
the last seven games, how much does the
other team have to score to win? To cover?
The Cardinals got two TD's on interception
returns from Antrel Rolle last week that
helped them beat Cincinnati, but that doesn't
mean Kurt Warner (60%, 11 TD's) needs all
of that assistance to do his job. Edgerrin
James has not had a spectacular year (3.6
ypc), but with 730 yards, he's doing a
lot of work and fulfilling one of coach
Ken Whisenhunt's missions - to make teams
keenly aware of the balance in this offense.
The new game plan is to throw shorter,
which could free up star wideouts Larry
Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin for long gainers
eventually, and San Francisco, which averages
just under 26 minutes of possession time
per contest, should play right into that
Cardinal game plan.
The 49ers
have scored just ten offensive touchdowns
in ten games. As if we needed to offer
some perspective, New England had eight
TD's in one game against Buffalo last
week. Even in the season opener, when
the Niners scored a 20-17 win against an
Arizona team quarterbacked by Matt Leinart,
San Fran gained just 194 yards (the average
is now 221 ypg). Coach Mike Nolan is now
under some fire from ownership, which has
stated the desire to bring in a "strong
GM" next season. When the best thing
you can say is that San Francisco hasn't
lost nine games in a row since 1978, you
know you're making a weak case for the
visitor here.
We won't go farther with that case. We'll
lay the 10.5 points with Arizona, the big
favorite in the BetUS NFL football betting
odds.
BetUS NFL betting odds: ARIZONA -10.5,
Total 37.5
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco has scored
60 points in its last seven games (8.6
ppg)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: The Niners
have covered just one of their last eight
games
NFL Free Pick:
JAY'S PLAY: ARIZONA ** (Graded on a scale
of 1-4 stars)
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