Posted
on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
Jan. 1 -- Sugar Bowl Preview
at New Orleans, Hawaii (12-0) vs. Georgia
(10-2), 8:30 p.m. (FOX)
CFB - Sugar
Bowl - HAWAII vs. GEORGIA (1/1 8:30 PM
ET – FOX)
Hawaii was
the nation’s only regular
season unbeaten team in 2007. Its reward
is a date with red-hot Georgia in the Sugar
Bowl. The Bulldogs won their L6 games of
the season, with the final five all coming
by double-digits. Many experts believe they
were the finest team in the country at the
end of the season. They will be playing as
a 7.5 point favorite in this game.
However, Georgia
was beaten for the SEC East Division title
by Tennessee and were left out of the national
title game because of it. HC Mark Richt’s main jobs here
will be to motivate his team for a Hawaii
club not accustomed to BCS-level games, and
to ready his defense for the aerial assault
certain to come from QB Colt Brennan. The
Warriors scored 46.2 PPG this season and
gained 529 YPG of offense. Georgia, 10-2
SU & 7-4 ATS, owns a 17-5 ATS record
in its L22 non-conference road games, including
7-3 ATS in bowl games.
Hawaii
Much like Boise State last January, Hawaii
is the most intriguing team in this year's
Bowl Championship Series. That's simply
because the Warriors are somewhat mysterious,
with a pass-crazy offense that has rarely
been tested by quality defenses.
Hawaii was barely able to beat WAC opponents
Louisiana Tech, San Jose State and Nevada
on the road, raising further questions about
its ability to play with an SEC opponent.
But the Warriors certainly have enough firepower
to make things interesting. It all starts
with quarterback Colt Brennan, directing
an offense that has averaged 46 points and
529 total yards. His receivers are dynamic,
led by Davone Bess and Ryan Grice-Mullen.
Brennan and his teammates demonstrated a
knack of coming through in the fourth quarters
of close games, such as the regular-season
finale against Washington with a BCS bid
on the line.
Even while being involved in some high-scoring
games, Hawaii's defense has produced some
decent statistics. The Warriors are 33rd
in the country in total defense, allowing
348 total yards. If there's a weakness, it's
in the secondary, but Hawaii's strength up
front could also be an issue against an SEC
offense.
Georgia
Having almost sneaked into the BCS title
game despite not even playing in the SEC
championship game, the Bulldogs settled
for the Sugar Bowl after a 10-2 season
that included losses to South Carolina
and Tennessee.
Coach Mark Richt was credited with keeping
things together and getting his team to improve
during a year that was highlighted by a win
over defending national champion Florida.
The Bulldogs are a typical SEC team. They
feature a great defense, a dependable running
game and a serviceable quarterback. Georgia
is 19th in the country in total defense,
allowing 324 yards. Opponents have thrown
for 205 yards a game, but that's partly a
function of having to pass because the Bulldogs
are so stingy against the run.
Having faced Urban Meyer's Florida offense
the past three years should be good preparation
for Georgia's defense, going into this game.
Offensively, Georgia has nice balance with
Knowshon Moreno running the ball and Matthew
Stafford throwing it. Moreno averages 106
yards on the ground. The Bulldogs are only
69th in total offense at 379 yards a game,
but that's respectable against the quality
of defenses they face week after week in
the SEC.
The Game
This game shapes up so much like the 2007
Fiesta Bowl, it is almost eerie. It is
a pairing of an upstart WAC team and an
established power. It matches a highly
productive, innovative offense against
a defense filled with great athletes. And
it is another case where nobody can be
sure exactly what is going to happen.
Of course, expecting this game to live up
to the dramatic standards of Boise State
vs. Oklahoma is asking too much. It certainly
will be intriguing, though. It basically
comes down to a couple of fundamental questions:
Can Georgia's defense hold the Warriors to
a reasonable number of points, maybe something
in the high 20s? If not, is Georgia's offense
capable of producing enough points to win?
The Boise State-Oklahoma example offers some
clues.
For all of the Broncos' heroics at the end
of that game, the fact is that they never
would have reached overtime at all if not
for a terrific start. BSU was wearing down
markedly by the end of regulation. The same
thing will likely happen to the Warriors,
so if Georgia can establish itself early
in the game, it could be difficult for Hawaii
to last the full 60 minutes. Then again,
if the Warriors can shock Georgia initially,
the game could go down to the wire.
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