Posted
on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
Jan. 1 -- Rose Bowl Preview
at Pasadena, Calif., Southern California
(10-2) vs. Illinois (9-3), 5 p.m. (ABC)
CFB - Rose
Bowl - ILLINOIS vs. USC (1/1 5:00 PM ET – ABC)
The “Granddaddy of Them All” boasts
the greatest point spread of any bowl game
in 2007-08, with USC playing as a favorite
of 14-points over an upstart Illinois team.
The Trojans are well familiar with this stage,
having played in three of the L4 Rose Bowl
games.
USC is 4-1
SU & ATS in their L5 bowl
games, all BCS, and have a 3-game SU & ATS
winning streak in this bowl series vs. Big
Ten foes. The Illini haven’t played
in Pasadena since 1984, and in fact, haven’t
played in any bowl game in six seasons. HC
Ron Zook’s team brings in a 9-3 SU & 7-4
ATS record, with wins over #1 Ohio State,
Penn State, and Wisconsin to its credit.
In fact, Illinois is 8-0 ATS against top-level
teams (Win Pct. > 75%) over the L2 seasons.
They operate a run-oriented version of the
spread offense, gaining 266 YPG and 5.7 YPR
in ’07. USC stuffs the run at a 2.4
YPR clip.
USC
Head coach Pete Carroll is stockpiling talent,
Pac-10 titles (six straight) and wins (75-14
record, .843 winning percentage) at an
alarming rate. Senior quarterback John
David Booty ranks among the school’s
top six all-time in both passing yards
and total offense.
Senior tailback Chauncey Washington needs
104 yards to hit the 1,000-yard season rushing
plateau and he has rushed for nine touchdowns.
Senior tight end Fred Davis, an All-American,
has a team-best 55 receptions for 794 yards
and seven scores. His 110 career catches
is a USC tight ends record. Senior two-time
All-American tackle Sam Baker anchors a terrific
offensive line.
The Trojan defense is in the national top
seven in every statistical category: second
in total defense (258.8), fourth in scoring
defense (15.9) and rushing defense (79.2),
sixth in pass efficiency defense (99.7) and
seventh in pass defense (179.7). Among the
top defenders are two-time All-American defensive
tackle Sedrick Ellis, defensive end Lawrence
Jackson (50 tackles for a loss, 29.5 sacks
in his career), linebacker Keith Rivers and
cornerback Terrell Thomas. All are seniors
who have NFL scouts absolutely salivating.
Safety Taylor May (62 tackles, one INT),
just a sophomore, is a future pro as well.
Illinois
Illinois, which won just twice in 2006, finished
second in the Big Ten this year at 6-2
and posted wins over a pair of then-top
five teams in No. 5 Wisconsin and No.1
Ohio State. Head coach Ron Zook, the 2007
Big Ten Coach of the Year after posting
college football's biggest turnaround this
season, has the Illini in a bowl for the
first time since 2001.
Illinois features
a run-oriented offense that ranks fifth
nationally in rushing offense (266.2 yards
per game). Leading the way is junior running
back Rashard Mendenhall (1,526 yards, 18
TDs). He runs behind a front headlined
by All-American left guard Martin O’Donnell.
Sophomore quarterback Juice Williams has
thrown for 1,498 yards with 13 TDs and run
for 774 yards with seven scores. Freshman
wide receiver Arrelious Benn, a guy who USC
recruited hard, was the Big Ten Freshman
of the Year after catching 49 passes for
596 yards.
The Illini
defense—ranked 19th nationally
in scoring defense (19.5 ppg)—is led
by senior linebacker J Leman (124 tackles
in 2007) and sophomore cornerback Vontae
Davis (63 tackles, four INTs).
The Game
With a two-deep roster littered with future
pro players, the Trojans are clearly the
more talented team. In fact, if not for
a slew of mid-season injuries, USC would
be playing in the BCS title game rather
than the Rose Bowl.
A win here
and the Trojans will likely finish in the
Associated Press’ top four for
a sixth straight year—quite a run in
today’s parity-ridden college football.
But, Illinois won’t roll over and play
dead in this game. In Juice Williams, the
Illini has the mobile run-pass type of quarterback
(i.e. Vince Young of Texas, Dennis Dixon
of Oregon) that has given USC some trouble
the past couple years. The question is: Can
Illinois’ offensive line block a ferocious
front seven, led by two-time All-American
defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis and game-changing
defensive end Lawrence Jackson, something
that numerous programs have struggled to
do the past few seasons?
Ron Zook has authored quite a turnaround
in Champaign this fall and will reap the
benefits on the recruiting trail in the coming
weeks.
Rose Bowl Free Pick:
But
look for the star-studded Trojans to get
the best of Zook and Co. here in what amounts
to a home game for the Men of Troy.
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