Posted
on 12/03/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
Dec. 20 -- Poinsettia
Bowl Preview at San Diego, Utah (8-4)
vs. Navy (8-4), 9 p.m. (ESPN)
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia
Bowl - December 20, 2007
Navy Midshipmen 8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS
Utah Utes 8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS
Storyline
The first bowl game to kick off the postseason
will be an entertaining one. Navy is back
at the Poinsettia Bowl for the second time
in three years and this is a game it knew
it would be playing way back in September
as it accepted an invite to San Diego as
long as it became bowl eligible. This is
first time in school history that the Midshipmen
have gone to five straight bowl games but
they will be without the coach that got them
there each time as Paul Johnson accepted
the same position at Georgia Tech.
Utah is bowling for the fifth straight season
and will be looking for its seventh straight
bowl victory. The Utes have won six consecutive
bowl appearances, dating back to 1999, which
is the second-longest postseason win streak
in the nation. They started the season 1-3
and things were not looking good as injuries
piled up but they started getting healthy
and won seven straight games before losing
a heartbreaker to BYU in the regular season
finale. Three of the four losses this season
came away from home.
Why Navy Will Cover
The Midshipmen should not miss a beat as
new hire Ken Niumatalolo was the assistant
head coach and offensive coordinator all
six years under Johnson. Navy currently leads
the nation in rushing with 351.5 ypg and
will likely wrap up the rushing title for
an unprecedented third straight season. The
offense scored 30 or more points in 10 of
12 games and averaged 49 ppg over its last
five games so this team is capable out not
only outscoring anyone, but always in position
for a backdoor cover.
Utah’s
offense got better as the season went along
since it was healthy once again but it
did not close the season very strong. The
Utes had a combined 544 total yards in
its final two games and the offense topped
28 points only once in their final six games.
Utah had a golden chance to take out its
hated rival but gave up the winning score
with only 38 seconds remaining. While that
game will have been 26 days in the past once
this one kicks, one wonders how it will respond
from that defeat.
Why Utah Will Cover
The Utes rushing defense has really clamped
down after a sluggish start. Utah allowed
198 ypg through its first five games but
has allowed just 81.4 ypg over its last seven
games. The scoring defense has been even
better as it has allowed 20 points or fewer
in its last six games and an average of just
9.5 ppg over that stretch. Navy has not faced
many solid stop units this year as it has
gone against teams ranked 113th, 91st, 96th,
94th and 88th in overall defense.
While Navy may have the best rushing offense,
the defense is horrendous, allowing 438.2
ypg which is 99th in the country. The unit
did improve toward the end of the season,
posting two of its three best efforts on
the year in the final two contests but those
games were against Northern Illinois and
Army, a combined 5-19. The Midshipmen played
a very weak schedule overall, 89th in the
country, and the victory over Air Force was
their only win against a team playing in
a bowl game.
Notable Trends
**Utah is 24-9 ATS in road games when playing
against a team with a winning record since
1992.
**Navy is 63-38 ATS as an underdog since
1992.
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2007 Poinsettia Bowl Betting Preview...
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