Posted
on 12/13/2007 11:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Poinsettia Bowl Navy vs. Utah
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Navy gained just
287 yards on the ground but beat Army 38-3
as a 13.5-point favorite in Baltimore;. Utah
had a seven-game losing streak snapped on
November 24 when the Utes lost 17-10 to BYU
as a 4.5-point dog.
ABOUT NAVY:
The Good News -- Navy, behind its powerful
option attack, led the nation in rushing
again this year, averaging 352 yards per
game with 44 rushing touchdowns. The Middies
are averaging 40 points per game, and have
scored a point for every 11 yards gained.
The Bad News -- Navy had a weak defense,
ranking 99th overall in the country, allowing
36.5 points per game and 48 touchdowns to
opponents. And Paul Johnson, who has developed
a reputation as one of the better coaches
in the country, has left the program to accept
the job at Georgia Tech.
NAVY GAMBLING TRENDS:
* NAVY is 20-10-1 ATS in its last 31 games
as an underdog
* NAVY is 3-0 ATS in its last three bowl
games
* NAVY has played seven of its last ten
games OVER the total
* NAVY has scored 30 points or more in nine
of 12 games this year
ABOUT UTAH:
The Good News -- Utah ranked 15th in the
nation in defense, permitting only 20 touchdowns
in 12 games. Derrell Mack leads a pretty
good rushing attack, gaining 1128 yards this
season.
The Bad News -- Quarterback Brian Johnson
(10 TD's, 9 INT's) has struggled with inconsistency
over a rough career that has been characterized
by injuries, enough that he had to receive
an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA.
The Utes faced an option attack earlier in
the season and gave up 334 yards on the ground
to Air Force. And the offensive line has
given up 28 sacks.
UTAH GAMBLING TRENDS:
* UTAH has won its last six bowl games SU
* UTAH is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games
* UTAH is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games
* UTAH is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games
* UTAH has played five of its last six games
UNDER the total
THE BOTTOM LINE: Neither team is likely
to get caught with its pants down, unprepared
for post-season play. The recent bowl history
illustrates as much. On paper, this may look
like a blowout for Utah, which has a big
statistical edge in the defensive unit and
more offensive balance. Remember, Navy gave
up huge point totals to the likes of North
Texas (62) and Delaware (59), while the Utes
gave up 28 less touchdowns. But the Navy
option is problematic for everyone the team
faces. And with offensive coordinator Ken
Niumatalolo taking over as interim coach
here, there is an important continuity that
will exist. The offense is not likely to
miss a beat. One other thing you can be assured
of is that Navy will have a lot of support
in San Diego and is not here to lay down,.
They will be in this for the whole route.
We'll grab the points with Navy, the 8.5-point
underdog in the BetUS college football betting
odds.
WHAT: The Poinsettia Bowl
WHO: Navy Midshipmen (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS) vs.
Utah Utes (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
December 20, 9 PM EST at Qualcomm Stadium
in San Diego (grass)
BETUS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAMBLING LINE:
UTAH -8.5, Total 66.5
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