Posted
on 12/11/2007 11:10 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
Dec. 22 -- PapaJohns.com
Bowl Preview at Birmingham, Ala., Cincinnati
(9-3) vs. Southern Miss (7-5), 1 p.m. (ESPN2)
BetUS
college football betting line: Cincinnati
is favored by 11 in this game, the over/under
(total) is 56.
PapaJohns.com Bowl - December 22, 2007
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles 7-5 SU,
5-6 ATS
Cincinnati Bearcats 9-3 SU, 8-2-1 ATS
Storyline
Southern Mississippi will be playing its
10th bowl game in the last 11 years under
head coach Jeff Bower who announced two weeks
ago that he is stepping down after 17 years
of leading the Golden Eagles. The season
was a big disappointment as they came into
the season as the favorites to win the C-USA
East only to find themselves finishing fourth.
Southern Mississippi won five of its final
seven games to become bowl eligible but surprisingly,
those two losses came at home.
Cincinnati quietly had a great season, going
9-3 with the three losses coming by a combined
16 points. Most of the wins were big as only
two of the nine victories were by fewer than
21 points. So what are the Bearcats doing
in the Papa Johns Bowl? Good question. Cincinnati
could come out flat thinking they should
be elsewhere instead of playing three days
before Christmas. However, head coach Brian
Kelly is a great motivator, and that is why
his name is coming up in the Michigan vacancy
talks.
Why Southern Mississippi Will Cover
This team will be highly motivated to send
Bower out with a victory which would be the
4th straight bowl victory for the Golden
Eagles. While the season can be considered
a disappointment, a lot of the troubles were
due to injuries at quarterback and now that
Jeremy Young is healthy, the Golden Eagles
have some consistency on their side. The
rushing offense carried the team as they
finished 22nd in the country led by Damion
Fletcher who finished 14th in the nation
with 119.3 ypg.
The passing
game will be getting another weapon back
as senior receiver Chris Johnson will be
seeing action for the first time since
breaking his right arm at Marshall on October
21st. This could greatly benefit the Golden
Eagles considering that Cincinnati finished
105th in the country in passing defense.
On the flip side, Southern Mississippi
once again had a solid defense and although
it wasn’t as good as past units, it
did a decent enough job to take the pressure
off of the offense.
Why Cincinnati Will Cover
Cincinnati cannot be feeling sorry for itself.
The goal was to reach the Sun Bowl, which
went to South Florida, or the Meineke Car
Care Bowl, which went to Connecticut but
a bowl is a bowl and the Bearcats know it
is still important for the program to take
that next step. Cincinnati will be looking
to win its 10th game which would be just
the 2nd time, and 1st since 1951, in school
history for that to happen. The Bearcats
finished 14th in scoring offense so this
team is capable of putting up a lot of points
to cover the big number.
The goal is to stop the Golden Eagles running
attack and Cincinnati has the ability as
it finished 15th in the nation in rushing
defense. Pittsburgh put up 260 yards while
West Virginia put up 295 yards but no other
FCS team was able to crack the 100-yard barrier.
As good as the scoring offense was, the scoring
defense was even better, as it finished 11th
in the country, allowing 18.6 ppg. The Bearcats
were also great with taking care of the ball
as they finished third in the nation in turnover
margin at +1.42 per game.
Notable Trends
**Southern Mississippi is 0-6 ATS as an
underdog over the last two seasons.
**Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS after one or more
consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons.
Preview
Courtesy of Matt Fargo @ Sharp Sports Advisors!
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