Posted
on 12/13/2007 11:15 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Papajohns.com Bowl Southern Miss vs. Cincinnati
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Southern Miss eked
out a 16-10 win over Arkansas State on November
24, failing to cover as a 14.5-point favorite.
Cincinnati went to Syracuse and ran up 544
yards, coming away with a 52-31 victory,
though the Bearcats did not cover the 22.5-point
spread.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting trends:
* CIN has covered four of the last five
meetings
* USM has won five of the last seven meetings
SU
LAST MEETING: Both teams used to belong
to Conference USA, so they met often. In
2004, Cincinnati pulled a 52-24 upset at
Hattiesburg as a five-point underdog.
ABOUT SOUTHERN MISS:
The Good News -- The Eagles have one of
the best young running backs around in Damion
Fletcher (1431 yards, 5.4 ypc), who ranked
14th nationally with 119 yards a game. There
is offensive balance, as USM averages 193.6
yards rushing and 202.6 yards passing. This
perennial Conference USA contender has won
its last three bowl games.
The Bad News -- Jeff Bower, who had 14 straight
winning seasons behind him, was eased out
of his position, and even though Larry Fedora
was named the new head coach, Bower will
participate in the bowl game. The Eagles
were only able to compile a minus-2 turnover
ratio. QB Jeremy Young completed just 53%
of his passes for only nine TD's.
SOUTHERN MISS TRENDS:
* USM is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games
as an underdog
* USM is 3-5 ATS in its last eight bowl
games
* USM has played four of its last five games
UNDER the total
ABOUT CINCINNATI:
The Good News -- The Bearcats took to new
coach Brian Kelly's offense like a fish to
water this season. And they had the right
triggerman in Ben Mauk, the Wake Forest transfer
who tossed 27 touchdown passes this year,
with only six INT's. Cincinnati forced 39
turnovers, second in the nation, which resulted
in a +17 ratio.
The Bad News
-- Cincinnati's secondary was vulnerable
to capable passing attacks this year, permitting
265 yards per game through the air. And
there really isn't a "go-to" guy
in the backfield.
CINCINNATI TRENDS:
* CIN is 2-4 ATS in its last six games
* CIN has played five UNDERS in its last
seven games
* CIN has won 12 of its last 15 games SU
* CIN is 4-2 ATS in its last six away from
home
* CIN has a +18.2 point differential
THE BOTTOM
LINE: Cincinnati allowed just three yards
a carry this season, but Southern Miss
will plan to run the ball anyway, and who
wouldn't when you have a weapon like Fletcher.
What might help is that Jeremy Young should
be able to find some holes in that Bearcat
secondary. The ball control attack will
have the effect of slowing the game down
a little. We appreciate the 39 takeaways
on the part of Cincinnati, we really do,
plus the fact that Brian Kelly is an eye-popping
26-8-3 ATS over the last three seasons.
But Cincy's stats are a bit inflated because
the 'Cats went out of their way to play
the "bully" role against weaker
teams early in the schedule. Not that it
didn't work, as they got a national ranking
out of it. But here, the Eagles will put
together a special effort for their departing
coach, a legend at the institution (there
28 yards altogether). And that will translate
to an inspired defensive effort. Since Southern
Miss has the highest-ranking defense in Conference
USA, we'll see a lot of plays on that side
of the ball. We're looking "under" the
56 points, as it is posted in the BetUS college
football betting odds.
WHAT: The PapaJohns.com Bowl
WHO: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5 SU,
5-6 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3 SU,
7-4 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
December 22, 1 PM EST at Legion Field in
Birmingham, AL (artificial turf)
BETUS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: CINCINNATI
-11, Total 56
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