Posted
on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Orange Bowl Kansas at Virginia Tech
Jan.
3 -- Orange Bowl Preview at Miami, Kansas
(11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2), 8 p.m.
(FOX)
LAST
POINTSPREAD RESULT: Kansas went into
the season finale undefeated but lost to
Missouri 36-28 as a 1.5-point favorite. Missouri
burned the Jayhawks for 519 yards in that
one. Virginia Tech won the ACC title and
got revenge for an earlier loss at the same
time with a 30-16 win over Boston College
as a 4.5-point favorite on a neutral field.
ABOUT KANSAS:
The Good News -- Kansas was second nationally,
scoring 44.3 points a game. They were also
fourth in scoring defense, allowing only
16 points per contest. Kansas leads the nation
with a +19 turnover margin and is sixth in
defending the run, yielding 91.4 yards a
game and 3.1 yards a carry. Todd Reesing
was the ninth leading passer in the country,
with 32 TD's and only six INT's.
The Bad News -- With only 21 sacks, the
Jayhawks are only so-so at getting to the
passer. And the bloated statistics may be,
to a considerable extent, a reflection of
a VERY weak non-conference schedule (Central
Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, Florida International).
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH:
The Good News -- Virginia Tech ranked just
ahead of Kansas (5th) in rushing defense,
giving up 2.75 yards a carry and 86 yards
a game. the Hokies were also fourth in pass
efficiency defense and fifth in total defense
(yards per game). Only Ohio State allowed
less points per contest. Sean Glennon re-established
himself as a viable quarterback in the season's
second half, and threw just one interception
in his last nine games.
The Bad News -- There were offensive line
problems. VT allowed 49 quarterback sacks
and priduced a running game that averaged
only 3.4 yards an attempt. Brandon Ore, the
feature back, has had only one 100-yard game.
Here are some college football betting TRENDS
relative to this matchup:
* KAN has covered 14 of its last 16 games
* KAN has played four of its last six games
UNDER the total
* VT has won and covered its last five games
* VT is 18-5 ATS in its last 23 games away
form home
* VT has played three of its last four games
OVER the total
* VT has covered two of its last six bowl
games
THE BOTTOM
LINE: Kansas did not exactly run wild against
any solid defense it faced, and in Virginia
Tech it could be encountering its finest
defensive opponent yet. Against Missouri,
Colorado and Texas A&M, Reesing
had three TD's and two INT's. Against the
rest of the schedule, his ratio was 29-4.
KU had just 42 net rushing yards in it sbiggest
test against Mizzou. Virginia Tech got shellshocked
early against LSU (give me a few points with
them NOW), but came on to win and cover the
last five, four of those against teams that
went to a bowl. It was encouraging to see
Sean Glennon re-emerging as an effective
QB for Virginia Tech. Brandon Ore doesn't
have to be dominant; he only has to provide
a little balance. Throw in a little "Beamer
Ball" on special teams, and you've got
a recipe for victory.
Orange Bowl Free
Pick:
We lay the points
with Virginia Tech, the 4.5-point favorite
in the BetUS college football betting odds.
WHAT: Orange Bowl
WHO: Kansas Jayhawks (11-1 SU, 10-1 ATS)
vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (11-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
January 3, 8 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium in
Miami (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: VIRGINIA
TECH -4.5, Total: 53
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