Posted
on 11/15/2007 10:25 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
College Football Betting - Ohio State at Michigan
WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1 SU, 6-4
ATS) at Michigan Wolverines (8-3 SU, 6-4
ATS)
WHEN & WHERE: Saturday, Noon ET at Michigan Stadium
(FieldTurf - artificial) in Ann Arbor
-- Televised by ABC
BETUS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: Ohio
State -4.5
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Ohio State lost
to Illinois 28-21 as a 15.5-point home
favorite. The Buckeyes gave up 260 rushing
yards. Michigan suffered a 37-21 defeat
to Wisconsin as a 2.5-point road favorite.
The Wolverines surrendered 478 total yards
to the Badgers in that one.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting
trends:
* OHIO STATE has three consecutive SU
wins in the series
* OHIO STATE has won five of the last
six meetings SU
* OHIO STATE has covered four of the last
six meetings
* Five of the last six meetings have gone
OVER the total
* MICHIGAN has won four of the last six
meetings SU in Ann Arbor
LAST MEETING: In a thriller that featured
the nation's #1 (Ohio State) vs. #2 (Michigan)
teams, Ohio State emerged as the 42-38
winner at home, failing to cover as a 6.5-point
favorite.
ABOUT OHIO STATE:
The Good News -- Ohio State is rated #7
by the USA Today, AP and BCS. The Buckeyes
have gotten a pleasantly productive season
out of QB Todd Boeckman, who is ranked
12th in the nation in passing efficiency,
with 23 TD's, 11 INT's and 65% completions.
OSU has almost perfect offensive balance,
gaining 209 yards per game through the
air and 201 on the ground. The defense
is ranked 1st nationally, allowing 2.7
yards per rush and 11.4 points per game.
The Bad News -- The Buckeyes generally
don't get good field position, averaging
just 16.8 yards a kickoff returns, last
in the country. Also, Illinois was able
to run at will against Ohio State, which
opens up questions as to how good this
stop unit really is. As it stands now,
the Buckeyes really have no chance to get
to the BCS championship game, and can lose
any BCS at all if they lose to Michigan.
OHIO STATE TRENDS:
* OHIO ST has covered 10 of its last 12
road games
* OHIO ST has covered eight of its last
10 Big Ten road games
* OHIO ST has covered nine out of its
last 13 as a road favorite
* OHIO ST has covered 32 of its last 47
games
* OHIO ST has played four of its last
five games OVER the total
ABOUT MICHIGAN:
The Good News -- After losing consecutive
games to Appalachian State and Oregon to
start the season, Michigan was able to
rebound to put itself into contention for
the Big Ten title. That is commendable.
The year started out with talk about whether
voters should put Appalachian State in
the top 25. At this point Michigan is #23
in both the USA Today and Associated Press
polls, and actually has a chance to get
to the Rose Bowl.
The Bad News -- Chad Henne and Mike Hart,
who began the season as Heisman candidates,
have been beset by injuries. Henne was
removed in the first quarter of the game
with Wisconsin (shoulder injury) and Hart
(ankle) sat out the game entirely. Both
should be set to go here, though they will
not be near 100%. If Henne can't make post,
freshman Ryan Mallett, who was 11 for 36
with two interceptions against Wisconsin,
will have to fill in. Michigan, like Ohio
State, doesn't returns kickoffs too well
either, chalking up just 18.4 per return
(109th).
MICHIGAN TRENDS:
* MICHIGAN has covered four of its last
five games
* MICHIGAN has covered seven of its last
eight as an underdog
* MICHIGAN has covered four of five home
games this season (does not count loss
to Appalachian St.)
* MICHIGAN has played four of its last
six home games UNDER the total
Free Pick: CONCLUSION:
Don't mistake Ohio
State for just any one-loss team. The Buckeyes
will come out fired up, and have demonstrated
strength when going out away from home.
They still have plenty of working parts
on offense, and in Jim Tressel they probably
possess a sizable edge in the coaching
department. This is the kind of game where
Michigan's big weapons, like Mike Hart
and Chad Henne, would have to be close
to full strength for them to win. That
is not the case. So we feel confident in
laying the wood with Ohio State, the 4.5
point favorite in the BetUS college football
betting odds.
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