Posted
on 12/10/2007 9:18 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
Dec. 21 -- New Orleans Bowl Preview, Florida Atlantic (7-5) vs. Memphis (7-5), 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
BetUS
college football betting line: Florida
Atlantic Is Favored by 2 1/2. The Over/Under
(total) is 67.
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - December
21, 2007
Florida Atlantic
Owls 7-5 SU,
7-5 ATS
Memphis Tigers 7-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS
Storyline
Troy was the big favorite to go back to
the New Orleans Bowl but Florida Atlantic
had a different plan in place as it celebrated
its first Sun Belt Conference Championship
and first ever bowl appearance. The Owls
have been playing FCS football (formerly
Division-I) for only three years so it goes
to show what a job head coach Howard Schnellenberger
has done in the short history of this program
while also showing how much talent there
is in Florida. The Owls had to win their
final two games on the road.
Memphis was basically left for dead after
a loss at home to Middle Tennessee to fall
to 2-4 on the season. Two of the losses came
against Sun Belt Conference teams while another
came at Central Florida by 36 points. Head
coach Tommy West was as good as gone but
instead of quitting, the Tigers responded
by winning five of their last six games including
a bowl clinching overtime win over SMU. A
preseason favorite in C-USA, Memphis will
have to settle for a lower tier bowl but
after its start, it will gladly take it.
Why Florida Atlantic Will Cover
The Sun Belt
is the weakest conference in the nation
but you can’t blame the
Owls. They went out and played five teams
from BCS conferences and while the only win
came against 1-11 Minnesota, the other four
came against bowl teams and gave them excellent
experience. The Owls do have a potent offense
and Memphis had one of the worst defenses
in the country, finishing 100th in the nation
overall. Florida Atlantic led the nation
in turnover margin and there is nothing more
important than possessing the ball.
As mentioned, Memphis has already lost to
two different SBC teams this season and those
two were middle of the pack teams. The Tigers
did finish the season strong to get here
but a couple plays here and there could have
meant no postseason as four of those final
five victories came by a field goal or less.
Of all teams playing in bowl games, only
Hawaii has played an easier schedule than
Memphis. One win came over FBS Jacksonville
St. while five other wins came against teams
a combined 13-47.
Why Memphis Will Cover
While the Owls
have a great offense, Memphis has an even
better unit. The Tigers finished 23rd in
total offense and closed the season averaging
33.7 ppg in their final six games not counting
the 13 points scored in three overtimes
against SMU. Memphis did a great job in
turnovers as well, finishing 17th in the
country in margin. Don’t expect
many sacks as the Tigers allowed the 14th
fewest in the nation while Florida Atlantic
was 117th in the country on defense, gaining
only 1.3 sacks per game.
The win over
Troy was obviously the biggest this season
for Florida Atlantic and other than that,
there was no solid victory. A record 11
teams that are in bowl games were actually
outgained in yardage this season and the
Owls are one of those teams. Many teams
were able to take advantage of the porous
Memphis rushing defense but don’t
expect the Owls to as they finished 91st
in rushing offense and were outgained on
the ground in all but two games this season.
Notable Trends
**Florida Atlantic is 0-7 ATS in non-conference
games away from home over the last two seasons.
**Memphis is 10-2 ATS in road games when
playing against a team with a winning record
over the last seven years.
Preview
Courtesy of Matt Fargo @ Sharp Sports
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