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Dec.
22 -- New Mexico Bowl Preview at Albuquerque,
New Mexico (8-4) vs. Nevada (6-6), 4:30
p.m. (ESPN)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Nevada beat Louisiana
Tech 49-10 on December 1, covering a seven-point
spread at home and outgaining the Bulldogs
by a whopping 641-228 margin. New Mexico
last played on November 24, beating UNLV
at home as a 12.5-point favorite.
ABOUT NEVADA:
The Good News -- At this point, a lot of
it is about freshman QB Colin Kaepernick,
who stepped into the lineup after Nick Graziano
got injured and looked like he had been running
the Pistol offense for years, throwing 19
TD passes with just three interceptions (fifth
in nation in passing efficiency). Luke Lippincott
gives the Pistol just the right rushing component,
plowing forward for 1380 yards. Coach Chris
Ault is already enshrined in college football's
Hall of Fame.
The Bad News -- Nevada's defense ranked
71st overall, permitting 43 touchdowns and
431 yards per game. And the team gets only
31.8 net yards a punt - 108th nationally.
NEVADA TRENDS:
* NEV has covered two of its last six games
* NEV has played five of its last six games
UNDER the total
* NEV is 2-4, both SU and ATS, on the road
this season
* NEV has won four of its last 11 road games
SU
ABOUT NEW MEXICO:
The Good News -- Head coach Rocky Long has
always been known as a good defensive strategist.
He plays a 3-3-5 alignment that is difficult
for many teams to prepare for. Running back
Rodney Ferguson has gained 1177 yards. Kicker
John Sullivan has hit 26 of 29 field goals.
The Bad News -- The Lobos have scored only
23 offensive touchdowns. Ferguson's 4 ypc
is not awe-inspiring. QB Donovan Porterie
(13 TD's, 8 INT's) does not bring a lot of
explosiveness to the table.
NEW MEXICO TRENDS:
* NEW MEX has covered one of its last six
games
* NEW MEX has won eight of its last 11 games
SU
* NEW MEX has played six of its last seven
games UNDER the total
* NEW MEX is 5-1 SU at home this season
* NEW MEX is 2-3 ATS at home this season
* NEW MEX is 6-6 ATS in its last 12 home
games
THE
BOTTOM LINE: Nevada clearly was a different
offensive team when Kaepernick stepped into
the lineup. He is a future Heisman Trophy
candidate, and does the job with his legs
as well, having gained 567 yards rushing
this season. The Wolf Pack has a big edge
in offensive balance, and can put the ball
in the end zone (36 ppg) while New Mexico's
offense is often slowed by Porterie's inconsistencies.
This is a game where the Lobos may have to
trade points, and they are ill-equipped to
do so. Although it comes in with just a 6-6
record, this team believes that, with losses
to Boise State and Hawaii, both by two points,
that could have easily gone the other way,
they deserve to be in the post-season. And
the post-season is a place New Mexico has
not performed under Long, losing the last
four bowl appearances both straight-up and
against the number, most recently on this
field against San Jose State last December.
New Mexico Bowl Free Pick:
Even though this
is essentially a home game for New Mexico,
we'll gladly grab the points with Nevada,
the three-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA
college football betting odds.
WHAT: The New Mexico Bowl
WHO: Nevada Wolf Pack (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS)
vs. New Mexico Lobos (8-4 SU, 4-7 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
December 22, 4:30 PM EST at University
Stadium in Albuquerque (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: NEW
MEXICO -3, Total: 60.5
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