Posted
on 12/18/2007 6:25 PM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAAF Wagering - New Mexico Bowl Wolfpack (+ 3) vs. Lobos (- 3)
The Nevada
Wolfpack and the New Mexico Lobos meet
in Albuquerque, New Mexico in the New Mexico
Bowl. Hmm…sounds like a home
game for the Lobos to me, but, hey, a bowl
game is a bowl game, right?
What’s interesting about this game
is the spread. Three points is a traditional
home-field advantage spread. Are odds-makers
saying that these two teams are too close
in talent for them to make a decided call
on this game? I don’t think so. I think
that they are afraid that not enough action
will go down on this game. Because of that
most odds-makers have gone with a traditional
spread.
That’s not
a bad thing for college football bettors.
Before I get into who I think will win this
game versus the spread, let’s take
a look at a few betting
trends:
The Nevada Wolfpack are 6 and 1 against
the spread versus a team with a winning record.
The Nevada Wolfpack are 4 and 1 against
the spread in their last 5 games as an UNDERDOG
on the road.
The New Mexico Lobos are 4-12-1 against
the spread in their last 17 games as a favorite.
When handicapping
college bowl games, the best thing to do
is to look at the schedule and see how
both teams have done against top competition.
For the Lobos their best win was at the
beginning of the year when they beat the
Pac-10 “powerhouse” Arizona
Wildcats. The Cats started to come on towards
the end of the year, so the Lobos win against
them at the beginning of the year has little
impact on how I think this game will unfold.
The Wolfpack’s
almost win versus the Hawaii Warriors was
actually quite impressive. They lost by
only two points to Hawaii, a BCS bowl game
participant, and that makes me ponder how
they will do versus the Lobos in what amounts
a road game.
I believe that Nevada has the ability to
not only beat this spread but to win this
game outright. These two teams are very close
together in terms of talent. The Wolfpack
lost to Hawaii and then, due to a Hawaii
hangover probably, lost a very close game
to a very bad San Jose State team. But after
that loss the Wolfpack ended their regular
reason by shipping Lousiana Tech by 39 points.
I expect New Mexico to be better than Louisiana
Tech, but Nevada is coming off of a very
impressive win and should be able to carry
that momentum into this bottom of the barrel
bowl game.
The BetUS NCAA football betting line is
Nevada Wolfpack + 3 against the spread versus
the New Mexico Lobos in the New Mexico Bowl
in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Free Pick:
Even though this amounts to a home game
for the Lobos, I like the Wolfpack because
of that sneaky good loss versus the Hawaii
Warriors.
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