Posted
on 12/30/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
CFB - BCS National Championship - Ohio State vs. LSU (8:00 PM ET - FOX)
Jan.
7 -- BCS National Championship at New Orleans,
Ohio State (11-1) vs. LSU (11-2), 8 p.m.
(FOX)
For the second
year in a row, and the third time in six
seasons, head coach Jim Tressel has his
Ohio State team playing for the national
championship. This year’s opponent
is LSU, who leapfrogged a host of teams in
the final BCS standings to earn a shot at
the title. Monday night’s game is scheduled
for an 8:00 PM ET kickoff, with LSU playing
as a four-point favorite.
The Buckeyes were a quiet story for most
of the year, playing in the shadows of preseason
favorites Wisconsin and Michigan in the Big
Ten. They won their first 10 games of the
season before falling at home to Illinois.
The season finale win over Michigan eventually
gave them the Big Ten title.
In all, OSU
was 7-4 ATS, while leading the nation in
scoring defense, allowing just 10.7 PPG!
That figure beat #2 Virginia Tech by 4.5
PPG. Tresell has turned around the bowl
fortunes of the Buckeyes, winning four
of the L5, both SU & ATS. Of course,
the only loss in that span was a year ago
in the BCS title game to Florida. However,
in that game they were favored. In their
L3 bowl games as underdogs, they have won
outright.
LSU was a disappointing underachiever for
most of the season, going just 4-7 ATS. In
fact, the Tigers only covered the spread
in one of their L10 games! They are trying
to become the first team with two losses
to ever win a BCS Championship.
HC Les Miles’ teams are 11-1 ATS
in non-conference play, including 2-0 SU & ATS
in bowl games. This is the second BCS Championship
appearance for LSU, with the first resulting
in a 21-14 win over Oklahoma in the 2004
Sugar Bowl. The Tigers’ best asset
is balance, on both sides of the ball. They
averaged 221 yards rushing per game and 229
through the air on offense, while yielding
just 4.3 yards per play defensively.
Ohio State is just 3-9-1 all time vs. the
SEC, while LSU boasts a 5-3-1 mark against
the Big Ten.
While it is fair to expect specific game
plans to be altered and schematic changes
in formations aimed at providing surprise
and fresh perspectives for the opposition
to battle against, it is much more accurate
to express the plain and simple truth: These
teams know their strengths and weaknesses,
and they know what got them to this point.
Deviation from those principles now is not
likely to unfold, and thus the analysis of
those features should provide the best insight
into what may lie ahead.
For Ohio State,
the foundation of success has been built
on what many now call “old
school football.”
As the numbers
indicate, it is the proven approach of
rushing that has led the Buckeyes’ charge
to success. The overall offensive effort
is lacking, averaging just 405.4 total yards
per game (61st among all FBS programs). The
ability to pass, or lack thereof, has been
the bane of that existence, averaging just
204.8 passing yards per game (95th in the
nation).
Junior QB Todd Boeckman has been effective
(23 TDs versus 12 interceptions) but rarely
provides the punch needed to excel, recording
just one game this season with 250 passing
yards or more.
However, the work of the rushing corps
has been nothing short of impressive. Sophomore
Chris Wells has enjoyed a prodigious rise
to fame, averaging an astounding 5.8 yards
per carry on his way to a total of 1,463
rushing yards and 14 TDs. The entire unit
has averaged 200.7 rushing yards per game,
22nd among all FBS programs. Those gains
have given the Buckeyes the scoring and progression
needed to win games.
Of course,
the defense has done their part as well.
In terms of total yards allowed, no team
in the land has matched Ohio State’s
effort, surrendering an average of just 225.25
total yards per game, giving up an average
of 33 yards-per-game less than the second-ranked
team in that category, first in passing defense
(148.17 yards/game), third in rushing defense
(77.1 yards/game), and most importantly,
first in scoring defense (10.7 yards/game).
On the other side of the field will be
the LSU Tigers, and as the numbers indicate,
they are not be taken lightly as well.
The Tigers’ offensive
rewards have been much more balanced. The
team has gathered an average of 463.1 total
yards per game, 18th in the nation. The
passing efforts have not been among the
collegiate elite by any means (244.2 yards
per game), but their ranking of 53rd in
the nation easily ranks ahead of Ohio State.
In terms of rushing, LSU has quietly enjoyed
outstanding success. Senior Jacob Hester
may not be well known, but his 5.0 yards
per carry for 1,017 yards has helped the
Tigers average 218.9 yards per game on the
ground, 13th in the country (nine spots higher
than the Buckeyes for that category).
The LSU defense happens to be one of the
few in the nation capable of competing with
the efforts put forth by OSU, surrendering
an average of just 283.85 total yards per
game (3rd among FBS programs).
Against the pass, the Tigers give up 180.77
yards per game (9th in the nation). Against
the run, they surrender just 103.1 yards
per game (14th in the nation). Last but not
least, the Tigers have given up an average
of just 19.6 points per game (21st in the
nation).
However, as faithful fans of the football
south will attest, those numbers posted by
LSU, very similar to those put forth by the
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes, carry much more weight,
for the competition provided by the SEC is
worthy of much more respect than that propositioned
by the Big Ten.
Consider these facts.
1) The final
BCS rankings include just two of OSU’s
regular-season opponents: #13 Illinois
and #18 Wisconsin. LSU faced the following
teams, all included in the final BCS rankings
of the season: #3 Virginia Tech, #12 Florida,
#16 Tennessee, and #23 Auburn.
2) The best passer Ohio State faced this
season: Brian Hoyer of Michigan State (28th
in the country with a 138.9 Passing Efficiency
rating). The best passers (plural) LSU faced
this season: Tim Tebow of Florida (#2 on
that list), Andre Woodson of Kentucky (#20
on that list), and Sean Glennon of Virginia
Tech (#21).
3) Ohio State
faced six of the nation’s
rushers ranked among the nation’s top
50 for yardage this season, including Mike
Hart of Michigan (#6), Rashard Mendenhall
of Illinois (#8), Javon Ringer of Michigan
State (#20), PJ Hill of Wisconsin (#23),
Louis Rankin of Washington (#32), and Rodney
Kinlaw of Penn State (#33). LSU faced six
of their own, including Matt Forte of Tulane
(#2), Darren McFadden of Arkansas (#4), Rafael
Little of Kentucky (#37), BenJarvus Green-Ellis
of Ole Miss (#38), Felix Jones of Arkansas
(#40), and Arian Foster of Tennessee (#45).
4) The combined
record of Ohio State’s
opponents: 74-72, including the 7-4 Penguins
of Youngstown State (of the FCS, or Division
IAA, ranks). The combined record of LSU’s
opponents: 88-70.
LSU has produced
equal levels of success, including several
statistical results that rank higher than
those produced by Ohio State, against better
players and better teams in a much better
conference. They can run, they can pass,
they can play defense, and they’ve
done it all against superior competition
with very few slips in production.
Of course, there is room for debate for
the Buckeyes.
While LSU have faced one of the best schedules
in the land, they have not faced a defense
as strong as the Buckeyes. In a game in which
the combatants have grown accustomed to scoring
with regularity, it could prove difficult
to adapt and find the few opportunities Ohio
State may provide. LSU has the tools to take
advantage of just about any situation, but
identifying those opportunities could be
the biggest challenge of them all.
Recent trends
also suggest reason for concern in the
bayou. In the final three games of the
season, the LSU defense struggled to keep
oncoming rushers from gathering yards.
Ole Miss totaled 201 rushing yards in a
41-24 defeat, Arkansas totaled a whopping
385 rushing yards against LSU in a 50-48
triple OT upset victory over LSU (including
206 yards by Darren McFadden, a reasonable
comparison to Ohio State’s Beanie Wells), and
Tennessee posted 94 total rushing yards in
the Tigers’ 21-14 regular-season finale.
TEAM
AVERAGES & NATIONAL FCS
RANKINGS
TOTAL YARDS
LSU: 463.1 (18th)
Ohio State: 405.4 (61st)
PASSING YARDS
LSU: 244.2 (53rd)
Ohio State: 204.8 (95th)
RUSHING YARDS
LSU: 218.9 (13th)
Ohio State: 200.7 (22nd)
SCORING
LSU: 38.7 (13th)
Ohio State: 32.0 (37th)
TOTAL DEFENSE
LSU: 283.85 (3rd)
Ohio State: 225.25 (1st)
PASSING DEFENSE
LSU: 180.77 (9th)
Ohio State: 148.17 (1st)
RUSHING DEFENSE
LSU: 103.1 (14th)
Ohio State: 77.1 (3rd)
SCORING DEFENSE
LSU: 19.6 (21st)
Ohio State: 10.7 (1st)
StatFox Power Rating says: LSU -1
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating says: LSU
-3
BCS Championship
Free Pick: StatFox Forecaster says: Ohio
State 29, LSU 20
NOTE:
All picks based on Sportsbook.com opening
odds
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