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Dec.
29 -- Liberty Bowl Preview at Memphis,
Tenn., Mississippi State (7-5) vs. UCF
(10-3), 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Preview
Kevin
Smith may not have stolen the head lines
as much as you would’ve
thought, but the nation’s leading rusher
will get to hog the spotlight on Saturday
afternoon as his Central Florida Knights
lock up with the Bulldogs in the AutoZone
Liberty Bowl. Mississippi State has been
an afterthought in the SEC for quite some
time, but things are beginning to turn around
for the Bulldogs. A bowl victory here would
be a fine exclamation point for a once fledgling
Mississippi State program.
Central Florida Offense vs. Mississippi
State Defense
All Kevin Smith
needs is 180 more yards and he will pass
Barry Sanders as the nation’s
single-season rushing record holder. The
Knights certainly aren’t shy about
rushing the ball, and average 237.8 yards
per game. Mississippi State has a solid linebacker
unit that makes their tackles, but Smith
will be a difficult matchup for them. The
Bulldogs give up 159.0 rush yards per game.
The pass defense
for the Bulldogs has been a big reason
for their turnaround. They allow only 182.2
passing yards per game and face an offense
that rarely passes. The Knights average
187.9 passing yards per game behind quarterback
Kyle Israel’s uninspiring
play. Helping Israel in a big way will be
the ankle injury to corner-back Anthony Johnson
of the Bulldogs, who is by and large their
best corner in the secondary.
Still, even
with that injury, the Knights are not a
passing team. Even when they get in to
trouble, they will give Smith every chance
in the world to break the single-season
rushing record. For the betting investor,
that means a low scoring affair on the Knight’s
behalf as they look to control the clock
and wait patiently for the defense to make
a mistake.
Mississippi State Offense vs. Central Florida
Defense
On the other hand, the Mississippi State
rushing offense is centered around the big
240 pound body of running-back Anthony Dixon,
who averages only 3.7 yards per carry. That
average will take a dip against a burly,
UCF front-seven. UCF only gives up 139.3
rushing yards and Dixon is simply not dynamic
enough to break open big chunks of yardage.
He is a between-the-tackles runner who will
be limited by a stout and stifling defensive
line.
That same defensive line excels at pressuring
the quarterback. With true-freshman quarterback
Wesley Carroll slinging the rock for the
Bulldogs, the Mississippi State betting faithful
have to be getting worried. The Bulldogs
average a pathetic 170.0 yards through the
air. UCF is certainly vulnerable, allowing
232.4 passing yards per game, but Carroll
lacks the football IQ and the killer instincts
to take advantage of that weakness.
NCAA Football Betting Trends
-Central Florida is 5-2 ATS in its last
7 games
-Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5
games
-total has
gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi State’s
last 5 games
-Mississippi State is 5-6 ATS on the season
Final Verdict
Kevin Smith flew under the radar for much
of the season, and that has to be frustrating
for a talented back who led the nation in
rushing this season. He will use this bowl
game to showcase his talents in the backfield
as he breaks through and runs roughshod all
over the Bulldogs. Despite their solid season,
the Bulldogs simply do not have the offensive
fire power to keep pace with an offense that
outscores them by 15.5 points per game on
average.
Central Florida Knights (10-3) vs. Mississippi
State Bulldogs (7-5)
Saturday, December 29th --- Liberty Bowl,
Memphis --- 4:30pm EST
Opening NCAA Football Line: UCF -3 (60.5)
NCAA Football Free Pick: UCF 35 Mississippi
State 24
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