Posted
on 12/18/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Las Vegas Bowl UCLA at BYU
Dec.
22 - Las Vegas Bowl Preview Las Vegas,
BYU (10-2) vs. UCLA (6-6), 8 p.m. (ESPN)
(Coming Soon)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: UCLA lost 24-7
to USC in the Los Angeles Coliseum, covering
as a 19.5-point underdog but gaining only
168 yards on offense. BYU won a 48-27 decision
over San Diego State, covering as a 16.5-point
favorite.
LAST MEETING: These teams actually met back
on September 8. UCLA almost blew a 20-0 lead,
but held on for a 27-17 win, covering as
an eight-point favorite. BYU's Max Hall threw
for 391 yards in that game, but BYU turned
the ball over four times.
ABOUT UCLA:
The Good News -- Maybe it's good, but maybe
it's bad. Either way, coach Karl Dorrell
is out the door, replaced for this bowl game
with defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker.
The Bruins should be healthier than usual;
QB Ben Olson, a BYU transfer who went down
to injury in the loss to Notre Dame, is slated
to start. Chris Markey, the star tailback
who gained 598 yards in an injury-plagued
season, should also feel better after some
time to rest.
The Bad News -- UCLA has been playing musical
chairs at the quarterback position, at times
being down to their fourth-string signal-caller,
converted wide receiver Oscar Rasshan. As
a result, the offense has often stalled;
the Bruins have given up more touchdowns
on defense (31) than they scored on offense
(23). And the defense isn't all that bad.
UCLA TRENDS:
* UCLA has covered its last five games as
an underdog
* UCLA has covered nine of its last ten
games as an underdog
* UCLA has covered 12 of its last 17 games
* UCLA is 14-3 SU following a straight-up
loss
ABOUT BYU:
The Good News -- BYU averages 458 yards
per game. That ranks 15th in the country.
The Cougars also have a defense; BYU held
opposition rushing attacks to only 2.9 yards
a carry. Quarterback Max Hall threw 24 TD
passes with only 12 interceptions. This team
carries a nine-game winning streak into this
bowl game.
The Bad News -- BYU's turnover ratio is
minus-9. The rushing game, while not pedestrian,
is nonetheless not a staple (4 ypc), and
the Cougars were held to just 44 net rushing
yards in the previous meeting with UCLA.
BYU TRENDS:
* BYU has played seven of 11 posted games
UNDER the total
* BYU is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games
* BYU is 9-2-1 ATS last 12 games after an
ATS win
* BYU is 17-6-1 ATS last 24 as a favorite
THE BOTTOM LINE: What's important to keep
in mind is that the relative schedules of
these teams is quite different. BYU plays
in the Mountain West Conference, while UCLA
competes in the Pac-10, which is much stronger.
A big concern for UCLA is that the offense
produced just 388 yards in the last two games
combined. But with Olson against at the controls,
this should start to resemble a bowl-level
offense a bit more. In their last three games,
UCLA played three teams who were at one point
late in the season ranked at #2 in the country,
and they held their own defensively against
all three (covering all three games). And
the Bruins have been double-tough as a dog,
covering the last five and nine of the last
ten in that role.
Las Vegas Bowl
Free Pick: We'll grab the points with UCLA,
the 7-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA
football betting odds.
WHAT: The Las Vegas Bowl
WHO: UCLA Bruins (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs. BYU
Cougars (10-2 SU, 6-5 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
December 22, 8 PM ET at San Boyd Stadium
in Las Vegas (artificial turf)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: BYU
-7, Total: 47
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