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Jan.
5 -- International Bowl Preview at Toronto,
Rutgers (7-5) vs. Ball State (7-5), Noon
(ESPN2)
LAST
POINTSPREAD RESULT: Ball State won
27-21 at Northern Illinois but failed to
cover the 9.5-point spread as the road favorite.
Rutgers suffered a disappointment as the
2.5-point underdog at Louisville, dropping
a 41-38 decision.
ABOUT BALL STATE:
The Good News -- Sophomore quarterback Nate
Davis is an exciting signal-caller with a
big arm and the ability to make plays. He
threw 27 touchdown passes with just six INT's
this season. The Cardinals have a +17 turnover
margin, which is second best in the nation.
The Bad News -- Ball State has had problems
defending the run, to say the least. They
have yielded 197 yards a game and 4.9 yards
per carry. The Cards are also 83rd in the
country in pass efficiency defense.
ABOUT RUTGERS:
The Good News -- Ray Rice was third in the
nation in rushing, on a yards-per-game basis
(144.3). He gained 1732 yards on five yards
a carry. Rutgers protected Teel very well,
allowing only nine sacks. And the Knights
are second in the country in passing yards
allowed, with 161 per game.
The Bad News -- Rutgers scored wins over
Navy and South Florida, but offered more
in the way of disappointment, as it lost
to Maryland, Cincinnati, West Virginia, U-Conn
and Louisville. Mike Teel, who was ranked
right near the top of the passing efficiency
ratings early in the year, injured his thumb
and struggled for much of the rest of the
way, though he says he feels completely healthy
now.
Here are some of the NCAA football betting
trends relative to this matchup:
* BALL ST has played its last five games
UNDER the total
* BALL ST has covered 11 of its last 15
games
* RUTGERS has covered one of its last five
games
* RUTGERS has won 18 of its last 25 games
* BALL ST has covered 12 of its last 15
games away from home
* BALL ST has covered seven of its last
eight games as an underdog
THE BOTTOM LINE: When you look at the fundamental
matchups between these units, all the edges
appear to belong to Rutgers. After all, Ray
Rice seems to be the kind of runner who can
exploit a Ball State defense that has allowed
almost five yards a carry. And Rutgers' second-ranked
passing defense looms as something that should
reasonably slow Nate Davis down. But the
respective psyches have to be taken into
account. Ball State has been looking for
this opportunity, and is playing its first
bowl game in eleven years. Rutgers had higher
hopes than to be in Toronto on January 5,
so this has to be a letdown for many players.
Ball State has been a feisty team when venturing
out of its conference, beating Navy, losing
by a point to a Nebraska team that was strong
early in the season, and being very competitive
with Illinois. Last year there were close
games with Indiana, Purdue and Michigan.
The point is, the Cardinals manage to hang
in there against opposition with a better
pedigree. Their 7-1 ATS record in the last
eight getting points would seem to bear that
out.
Davis is a tough competitor who does not
back down to anyone. His top receiver, Dante
Love (1229 yards) is hard to stop. Ball State
takes care of the ball, having given it away
only ten times all season. And they will
be throwing haymakers to the end, you can
be sure.
International Bowl
Free Pick:
We'll grab double
digits with the Cardinals, the 10.5-point
underdog in the BetUS NCAA football betting
odds.
WHAT: International Bowl
WHO: Ball State Cardinals (7-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5 SU, 5-6
ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
January 5, Noon ET at the Rogers Centre
in Toronto (artificial turf)
BETUS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: RUTGERS
-10.5, Total: 61
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