Posted
on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Texas Tech at Virginia
Jan.
1 -- Gator Bowl Preview at Jacksonville,
Fla., Virginia (9-3) vs. Texas Tech (8-4),
1 p.m. (CBS)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Texas Tech pulled
off a 34-27 upset over Oklahoma, covering
as a seven-point home underdog. Virgnia lost
to Virginia Tech 33-21 as a four-point home
underdog.
ABOUT TEXAS TECH:
The Good News
-- Offense, and plenty of it. Graham Harrell
threw for 45 touchdowns and completed 73%
of his passes in Texas Tech's "Air Raid" attack.
Freshman wide receiver Michael Crabtree
was the Biletnikoff Award winner, with
125 catches for 1861 yards and 21 TD's.
The Red Raiders led the country with 476
passing yards per game.
The Bad News -- Texas Tech's rushing attack
was 119th and last in Division I-A with 61
yards per game. The run defense yielded 171
yards per game. In a loss to Oklahoma state,
three OSU runners had over 100 yards. Texas
Tech also had a minus-6 turnover margin.
ABOUT VIRGINIA:
The Good News -- The Cavaliers allowed just
18.8 points per game, placing the team 13th
in the nation in scoring defense. Part of
that stop unit was future first-round draft
choice Chris Long (son of Howie), who had
14 of the team's 40 sacks. Virginia registered
wins over Georgia Tech, Connecticut, Maryland
and Wake Forest.
The Bad News -- Virginia ranked 100th in
total offense. QB Jameel Sewell had just
nine TD passes in 341 attempts.
Here are some college football betting TRENDS
relative to this matchup:
* TT has won 10 of its last 14 games SU
* TT has played five UNDERS in its last
seven games
* VA has covered two of its last seven games
* VA has played 15 UNDERS in its last 23
games
* VA coach Al Groh is 3-1 ATS in bowl games
* TT is 4-1 SU in its last five bowls
THE BOTTOM LINE: Virginia coach Al Groh
is a respected defensive strategist, and
there is no doubt he'll come up with a few
twists to throw at Texas Tech's offense.
But their run defense (3 ypc) hardly matters
here against a Red Raider team that doesn't
care about running the ball very much. And
who is going to match up with Michael Crabtree?
One thing you can be sure of with Texas Tech
is that it won't give up - last year's massive
comeback to beat Minnesota 44-41 led to the
firing of Gopher head coach Glen mason. We're
sure Groh won't suffer the same fate here,
but his offense is too pedestrian to trade
points. And considering, for example, that
Texas Tech hung up 949 yards in its last
two against Oklahoma and Texas, that may
be what the Cavs have to do.
Gator Bowl Free Pick:
We'll lay the points with TEXAS TECH, the
six-point favorite in the BetUS NCAA football
betting odds.
WHAT: Gator Bowl
WHO: Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-4 SU, 6-5
ATS) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (9-3 SU, 5-7
ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
January 1, 1 PM ET at Jacksonville Municipal
Stadium (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: TEXAS
TECH -6, Total: 59
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