Posted
on 11/07/2007 9:25:22 PM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Air Force at Notre Dame
ABOUT FRESNO STATE:
The Good News -- With one win in its last
three games, the Bulldogs can pretty much
seal up a bowl bid, if they don't have
one clinched already. Fresno State has
played well on special teams, ranking third
nationally in kickoff returns, ninth in
punt returns, and 36th in net punting.
They have also averaged 197 rushing yards
a game.
The Bad News -- The Bulldogs have not
been able to stop talented offenses. Nevada
gained 702 yards; Oregon had 457, and Boise
State 440. Ryan Mathews (751 rushing yards
on 6.2 ypc) and leading receiver Bear Pascoe
are likely to be game-time decisions after
injuries.
FRESNO STATE TRENDS:
* FRESNO has won five of its last six
games SU
* FRESNO is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road
games
* FRESNO has played six OVERS in its last
seven road games
* FRESNO is 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten
games as a dog
ABOUT HAWAII:
The Good News -- Hawaii should be relatively
well-rested, having played just once in
the last 23 days. It is conceivable (though
a longshot) that when the ball is kicked
off, Hawaii could be the nation's only
unbeaten team. The Rainbows are rated #12
in the USA Today poll and #14 in the AP
poll. QB Colt Brennan is still alive in
the Heisman Trophy race, completing 68.6%
of his passes for 2820 yards and 26 touchdowns.
The Bad News -- Brennan has been battling
ankle problems for most of the year, and
has thrown 11 interceptions on short of
last year's total. Hawaii, despite its
unbeaten record, is not ranked among the
top 25 BCS teams. Hawaii doesn't really
run the ball, averaging just over 73 yards
a game.
HAWAII TRENDS:
* HAWAII is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 as
a home favorite
* HAWAII is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 laying
double digits at home
* HAWAII is 13-8 ATS in the WAC since
2005
WHO: Fresno State Bulldogs (6-3 SU, 4-4
ATS) at Hawaii Rainbows (8-0 SU, 3-3 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
Saturday, Midnight ET, Aloha Stadium
(artificial turf) in Honolulu (Televised
by ESPN 2)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: Hawaii
-17.5 (Total 72)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Fresno State
beat Utah State last Saturday by the score
of 38-27 but failed to cover as a 20.5-point
favorite. Hawaii last played on October
27, beating New Mexico State 50-13 and
covering as a 20.5-point favorite.
HEAD-TO-HEAD college football betting
trends:
* HAWAII has covered six of the last eight
meetings
* HAWAII has won four of the last six
meetings SU
* HAWAII has covered four of the last
five meetings in Honolulu
* The last five meetings have been decided
by an average of 28 ppg
* The favorite has covered the last four
meetings
* FRESNO ST. holds the overall series
advantage at 20-18-1 SU
LAST MEETING: Last year, Hawaii, as a
four-point road favorite, scored a 68-37
win at Fresno behind 470 passing yards
from Colt Brennan.
Free NCAAF Pick
THE BOTTOM LINE: Hawaii, the team with
a lot of rest, has to have the mindset
that it will run up the score if it gets
the chance, because of its snub in the
BCS standings and the relatively low ranking
in the major polls. Of course, a subsequent
game with Boise State will give all of
that a shot to improve, but the Rainbows
seize the opportunity here and add as many
points as they can at the end in an attempt
to impress the voters, who have a share
of the BCS process. We will lay the points
with Hawaii, the 17.5-point favorite in
the BetUS college football betting odds.
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