Posted
on 12/05/2007 10:25:33 AM
By: CappersPicks.com College Football Handicapping
Staff
NCAA Football Betting - Cotton Bowl Arkansas at Missouri
Jan.
1 -- Cotton Bowl Preview at Dallas, Missouri
(11-2) vs. Arkansas (8-4), 11:30 a.m. (FOX)
LAST POINTSPREAD RESULT: Arkansas pulled
a 50-48 overtime upset over LSU on November
23, covering as a 13.5-point underdog. Missouri
played in the Big 12 title game on December
1, losing 38-17 to Oklahoma as a three-point
underdog.
LAST MEETING: These teams last played in
the Independence Bowl in 2003, with Arkansas
scoring a 27-14 victory as a three-point
favorite.
ABOUT ARKANSAS:
The Good News -- Quite simply, this is the
most explosive and dangerous backfield in
the country. There is the two-time Heisman
runner-up, Darren McFadden (1725 yards, 5.7
ypc) who also threw four TD passes, and Felix
Jones, who rushed for 1117 yards and also
averaged 9.1 yards a pop. Also, wide receiver
Marcus Monk, who helps with balance in the
air attack, is healthier now after his knee
injury.
The Bad News -- QB Casey Dick is not explosive
and is in fact often unsteady. He completed
57% of his passes. Houston Nutt was able
to compile a game plan that was able to diversify
the Arkansas attack despite that, by using
McFadden in direct snaps from center. But
Nutt has been let go, and Bobby Petrino came
into the picture amidst much confusion. Defensive
coordinator Reggie Herring will take the
reins on an interim basis for this game,
but the Arkansas staff doesn't has much idea
of its fate.
ABOUT MISSOURI:
The Good News -- Quarterback Chase Daniel
was a Heisman contender, and deservedly so.
Daniel completed 70% of his passes for 4170
yards, 33 TD's and only 10 interceptions.
He is a master improviser. Freshman Jeremy
Maclin is a future Heisman candidate and
possibly the most dangerous player on the
field. He scored 16 TD's, caught 77 passes,
runs out of the backfield, and returns kicks.
Missouri has a +13 turnover ratio on the
season.
The Bad News -- Missouri is let down after
reaching the Big 12 title game, hanging the
only loss on Kansas' record and being left
out of the BCS picture. Sometimes that has
an effect on a team when it comes time to
prepare for the bowl. The Tigers' secondary
was vulnerable, giving up 263 passing yards
per game.
Here are some college football betting TRENDS
relative to this matchup:
* ARK has won and covered five of its last
six games
* ARK has played four OVERS in its last
five games
* MIZZ has covered six of its last nine
games
* MIZZ has covered 11 of its last 14 games
* MIZZ has played four of its last six games
OVER the total
THE BOTTOM LINE: Certainly Arkansas is a
lot more one-dimensional than it would like
to be, but the McFadden-Jones combo is hard
to stop even if the opposition knows either
of them are getting the ball. The fact, however,
is that Casey Dick is limited, enabling Missouri,
which gave up just 3.6 yards a carry. That
might help them slow Arkansas down enough
to get the one more stop required. The Tigers
will undoubtedly move the chains - they converted
on 53% of third downs, and aside from Maclin,
there is William Franklin (44 catches) and
the top tight end combo of Martin Rucker
and Chase Coffman, both of whom will be playing
on Sundays. A big boost is that running back
Tony Temple is healthy. In a game where firepower
will dominate, Mizzou has a little more of
it. And we're not all that crazy about Arkansas'
coaching situation right now.
Cotton Bowl Free Pick:
As long as Gary Pinkel has this team sufficiently
focused, we like MISSOURI, the three-point
favorite in the BetUS college football betting
odds.
WHAT: Cotton Bowl
WHO: Arkansas Razorbacks (8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS)
vs. Missouri Tigers (11-2 SU, 9-3 ATS)
WHEN & WHERE:
January 1, 11:30 AM at the Cotton Bowl
in Dallas (grass)
BETUS COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING LINE: MISSOURI
-3, Total: 69
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